Kmlwx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Given that there is a tiny chance at something next week, we'll go ahead and open up the 2023 iteration of the thread. I doubt it will amount to much of anything (perhaps a better chance in the Carolinas and far SEVA) but we'll see. General mid to long range discussion can go in here, as can discussion about past events etc. In past years this has also served as a bit of an "on the fly" obs thread for events that are too small to warrant a separate thread. Pretty casual rules in this annual thread. Looking forward to our usual folks And as always - attached is the @WxWatcher007 tier system for our severe threats here in the Mid-Atlantic subforum. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Given that there is a tiny chance at something next week, we'll go ahead and open up the 2023 iteration of the thread. I doubt it will amount to much of anything (perhaps a better chance in the Carolinas and far SEVA) but we'll see. General mid to long range discussion can go in here, as can discussion about past events etc. In past years this has also served as a bit of an "on the fly" obs thread for events that are too small to warrant a separate thread. Pretty casual rules in this annual thread. Looking forward to our usual folks And as always - attached is the @WxWatcher007 tier system for our severe threats here in the Mid-Atlantic subforum. Man, this scale still works lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Man, this scale still works lol It's immortalized. Unless somebody changes their personality completely, it will always work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 The models seem to continue to suggest that any isolated severe threat will be SE of most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 22 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The models seem to continue to suggest that any isolated severe threat will be SE of most of us. Ah darn it. Came in here for the "When in winter you hear thunder..." folklore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ah darn it. Came in here for the "When in winter you hear thunder..." folklore No snow, no severe, borrrrrring. Just how weather is around these parts most times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 I'm ready for severe season and beach weather, followed by next year's El Nino blizzard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 I'm wondering if limited, slightly elevated CAPE will be enough for a few to hear thunder tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 11, 2023 Author Share Posted January 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, George BM said: I'm wondering if limited, slightly elevated CAPE will be enough for a few hear thunder tomorrow evening. 12z NAM nest reflectivity actually looked semi decent between 4 and 5z tomorrow night. Worst time of day for something to come through...but sure beats the boring weather around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 19, 2023 Author Share Posted January 19, 2023 I saw this thread had activity and I got excited....now I'm sad. It's not for us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 I know it will change hundreds of times between now and then...but I've seen the CFS flash some peaks of a ring of fire pattern for peak climo in May-July. We'll see... Getting pretty tired of this hunt for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 30 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I know it will change hundreds of times between now and then...but I've seen the CFS flash some peaks of a ring of fire pattern for peak climo in May-July. We'll see... Getting pretty tired of this hunt for snow. Give me a negatively tilted trough w/ a surface low tracking up the Apps spine during spring and a classic ROF pattern for the second half of May through the summer every year. This is the way to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Coming to your backyard soon! Mud and peeper advisories! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 @Stormchaserchuck1 we have a severe thread for 2023 already, friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Nice squall line on 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 While this is research being conducted in the mid-south - it is into the way we tend to get our infrequent spinnys over this way - thought you all might like to read it: https://dailymemphian.com/subscriber/section/metro/article/34141/noaa-studying-deadly-tornadoes-in-southeast-united-states Quote Tornadoes are deadlier in Mid-South; NOAA wants to know why As clouds gathered over Memphis on a recent morning, scientists gathered between rows of radars in the National Weather Service parking lot and released a weather balloon that was whisked away on a 100,000-foot journey. Wednesday, Feb. 8, was the ceremonial start to the second round of data collection that will help scientists understand tornado formation in the Mid-South — an understudied region. Tornadoes cause more deaths in the Southeast than anywhere else in the country. The program, called PERiLS — or Propagation, Evolution and Rotation in Linear Storms — is the largest tornado field study in more than a decade. This study is focused in the Mid-South, covering seven states from the Gulf Coast to the Missouri bootheel, and from the mid- and lower Mississippi Valley to the foot of the Appalachian Mountains. In 2015, Congress called on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to conduct a southeastern counterpart to its Great Plains tornado studies, known as VORTEX, to better understand the deadlier nature of tornadoes in the region. PERiLS is the continuation of that project. NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory and the National Science Foundation are funding the three-year-long, $9 million study in partnership with nine universities. “We are collecting an unprecedented data set to better understand tornadic storms in the Southeast, the environments in which they form and the damage they leave behind,” said Anthony Lyza, PERiLS coordinating scientist. Historically, tornado research has been concentrated in the Great Plains, in part because the flat landscape and sparse tree cover makes monitoring easier. Years of studies in what’s known as “Tornado Alley” have helped scientists understand tornado formation in supercell storms, but tornadoes that emerge from squall line storms, which form ahead of cold fronts, are more common in the Southeast. Squall lines produce shorter-lived and weaker tornadoes than supercell storms, but they often happen at night or during the early morning, catching people by surprise. Compared to other tornado-prone regions, there’s a higher population density in the Southeast and more mobile homes, which makes the storms more dangerous for residents. The storms’ quick development also makes it difficult for meteorologists to warn the public. “They’re hard to predict, so they have the potential to cause a lot of damage in these communities,” said Karen Kosiba, the National Science Foundation’s lead scientist for PERiLS. For the next three months, the scientists will deploy dozens of instruments — a combination of radars, weather balloons and wind profilers, among other tools — to collect real-time data. They’ll pinpoint areas of the storm ripe for tornadoes and position their equipment to take measurements throughout the duration of the storms. Modeling data is valuable in meteorology, but Brian Carcione, the National Weather Service’s regional science and training branch chief, said on-the-ground data collection is critical to understanding tornado formation in squall line storms. “It’s an entirely different thing to have all this information so close to the storms,” Carcione said. “That provides a layer of information that forecasters can use to improve warnings.” Air temperature plays a role in tornado formation. In supercell storms, cold air dictates the speed of the updraft and the strength of the rotation. In squall lines, the role of cold air is less understood, according to Christopher Weiss, a PERiLS researcher and professor at Texas Tech University. His team will deploy probes that measure air temperature, which should reveal its influence on tornado formation. After the data collection ends in May, a year-long analysis is expected to reveal new information about tornado formation in the region. If they can understand the characteristics of squall line storms that produce tornadoes, they can predict them with more accuracy and issue warnings. “Ultimately, the important thing is to save lives,” said Cory Hancock, the National Science Foundation’s public affairs specialist. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 This day 2 ENH is quite something… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 On 2/12/2023 at 1:28 PM, North Balti Zen said: While this is research being conducted in the mid-south - it is into the way we tend to get our infrequent spinnys over this way - thought you all might like to read it: https://dailymemphian.com/subscriber/section/metro/article/34141/noaa-studying-deadly-tornadoes-in-southeast-united-states Yup. Historically our best tornado days in these parts come from either tropical remnants, or a powerful Dixie Alley outbreak. Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and April 27-28, 2011 are perfect examples of each scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 That, plus the research is into tornados that spin up in squall lines. From my experience since moving here in 2010, that is FAR more likely to be our issue than a supercell type storm producing a tornado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Not our area per se, but this is an outstanding AFD from Birmingham regarding the possible severe weather in the AL/MS/TN area today. Very educational ... well, to me at least. Anyway, thought I'd share it. https://kamala.cod.edu/al/latest.fxus64.KBMX.html 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Sharp fropa in Gaithersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Sharp fropa in Gaithersburg. Event of the year thus far... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 Marginal risk for today for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Marginal risk for today for some of us. I wouldn't mind a spring thunderstorm today. It is spring.. I'll be watching the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Marginal risk for today for some of us. The best signal is for those north of the DC Beltway, but most of the CAMs do show convection rolling through during the early to mid afternoon hours. The soundings to me support small hail more than they support strong winds, so I'm not sure about the 5% wind threat, but I'll take it for late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2/7/2020 was an incredible MRGL day in these parts. Better than most ENH days. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20200207 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Got some lightning in northern Garrett County. LFG! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 hours ago, dailylurker said: I wouldn't mind a spring thunderstorm today. It is spring.. I'll be watching the sky. should be on your doorstep soon. will be interesting to know if there is hail associated with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 32 minutes ago, mappy said: should be on your doorstep soon. will be interesting to know if there is hail associated with it Nice long crack, then rumble of thunder. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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