Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

[GaWx]

 How have SE US temps been 1-3+ weeks following major SSWs (per ERA) in winter during El Niño? (Excluded 2/29/80 and 2/24/07 because too late to affect met winter)

1/31/58: very cold Feb

12/16/65: very cold mid Jan to early Feb

11/28/68: cold Dec & 1st half Jan

1/2/70: very cold Jan, cold Feb

1/31/73: cold mid to late Feb

1/9/77: very cold mid Jan-mid Feb

1/23/87: very cold mid to late Feb

12/8/87: cold took 3 weeks to start (very late Dec) and continued through Feb

1/18/03: cool late Jan-early Mar

2/9/10: very cold mid Feb-early Mar

1/2/19: cold mid to late Jan

 

 -So, ~half of Ninos since 1958 had a major SSW per ERA by mid Feb. vs 40% of others.

-So, for the 11 that had one, all (100%) had BN temps in the SE dominating for a 3-8 week period starting 1-3 weeks after the major SSW date.

 

Conclusion: Due to unanimous agreement of the 11 Nino cases: if a major SSW actually occurs in early Jan, I’ll be expecting a 3-8 week period of SE US BN domination starting mid or late Jan and ending anywhere from early Feb through early Mar. If instead one occurs in mid Jan, push these dates out 1-2 weeks. So, most likely period of cold due to major SSW in early to mid Jan would be late Jan-early Feb. It is possible that it will already be cold during or before any major SSW. I’m talking about aftereffects from the SSW, itself.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

[buckeyefan1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 How have SE US temps been 1-3+ weeks following major SSWs (per ERA) in winter during El Niño? (Excluded 2/29/80 and 2/24/07 because too late to affect met winter)

1/31/58: very cold Feb

12/16/65: very cold mid Jan to early Feb

11/28/68: cold Dec & 1st half Jan

1/2/70: very cold Jan, cold Feb

1/31/73: cold mid to late Feb

1/9/77: very cold mid Jan-mid Feb

1/23/87: very cold mid to late Feb

12/8/87: cold took 3 weeks to start (very late Dec) and continued through Feb

1/18/03: cool late Jan-early Mar

2/9/10: very cold mid Feb-early Mar

1/2/19: cold mid to late Jan

 

 -So, ~half of Ninos since 1958 had a major SSW per ERA by mid Feb. vs 40% of others.

-So, for the 11 that had one, all (100%) had BN temps in the SE dominating for a 3-8 week period starting 1-3 weeks after the major SSW date.

 

Conclusion: Due to unanimous agreement of the 11 Nino cases: if a major SSW actually occurs in early Jan, I’ll be expecting a 3-8 week period of SE US BN domination starting mid or late Jan and ending anywhere from early Feb through early Mar. If instead one occurs in mid Jan, push these dates out 1-2 weeks. So, most likely period of cold due to major SSW in early to mid Jan would be late Jan-early Feb. It is possible that it will already be cold during or before any major SSW. I’m talking about aftereffects from the SSW, itself.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

Thank you for this 

[olafminesaw]

Monday morning starting to look rather interesting, even on the gfs.

 

 

[BooneWX]

Calling my shot now: Roxboro with 4 inches 

[olafminesaw]

Ayyy, let's get our .1" and beat last winter before Christmas.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[SnowDawg]

Man seeing that track on next weekends storm system with absolutely no cold air whatsoever to work with is downright depressing. Maybe it's a track we can repeat throughout the winter, but it just seems those big bowling ball Miller A's are so rare these days that it sucks to waste one.

[Met1985]

25 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Man seeing that track on next weekends storm system with absolutely no cold air whatsoever to work with is downright depressing. Maybe it's a track we can repeat throughout the winter, but it just seems those big bowling ball Miller A's are so rare these days that it sucks to waste one.

Happened a couple times last year. The cold air is on the other side of the globe.  Figures.

[BooneWX]

I really think yall score tonight. It’s going to be an absolute thumping when it comes down. I’m just curious to see how quick the temps can crash. 
 

we’ll need some live reports @Buckethead

[nchighcountrywx]

This is a shot across the bow.  Major change in the outlook 

 

[SnowDawg]

1 hour ago, nchighcountrywx said:

This is a shot across the bow.  Major change in the outlook 

 

It seriously feels like we've been allergic to the cold phases of MJO during the winter months. Could end up blowing January too. I know February is the best month by far in strong Niños but it's hard to be confident in that with how that month has treated us lately. Really need that SSW like GaWx was talking about above.

[Buckethead]

I really think yall score tonight. It’s going to be an absolute thumping when it comes down. I’m just curious to see how quick the temps can crash. 
 
we’ll need some live reports [mention=2505]Buckethead[/mention]

I got you man. I'm still up in Boone atm but it's down to 37 at my house.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

[CaryWx]

2 hours ago, nchighcountrywx said:

This is a shot across the bow.  Major change in the outlook 

 

Maybe I'm reading this incorrectly but I see a projection out to the 23rd and certainly while in the CoD is still in phase 7.  How is this a 5-6 regime forecast?

[NorthHillsWx]

All indications seem to be pointing to a punt until early January at the earliest for sustained cold and snow chances outside the mountains. MJO and ensemble guidance is ugly. That being said, my brother is reporting about 1/2” of surprise snow from Urbanna Virginia this morning

[olafminesaw]

52 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

All indications seem to be pointing to a punt until early January at the earliest for sustained cold and snow chances outside the mountains. MJO and ensemble guidance is ugly. That being said, my brother is reporting about 1/2” of surprise snow from Urbanna Virginia this morning

might be a T-shirt kind of Christmas.

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

might be a T-shirt kind of Christmas.

Im ok with it as long as we’re seeing some signs of something changing in early Jan. Otherwise, we’re going to be stuck in our can kicking pattern we have been in since December 2018

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Im ok with it as long as we’re seeing some signs of something changing in early Jan. Otherwise, we’re going to be stuck in our can kicking pattern we have been in since December 2018

Let's not forget, last year around this time we were hoping for a massive Christmas blizzard and a solid pattern afterwards. We know how that turned out. All that to say, I'd rather be hoping for a pattern change now, considering El Ninos are typically more back-loaded. 

[eyewall]

22 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Let's not forget, last year around this storm we were hoping for a massive Christmas blizzard and a solid pattern afterwards. We know how that turned out. All that to say, I'd rather be hoping for a pattern change now, considering El Ninos are typically more back-loaded. 

Yeah I am trying to hold on to hope for Jan/Feb which is when we see are biggest snowfalls. I know we're all beyond jaded given the past few years.

 

[Upstate Tiger]

Just now, eyewall said:

Yeah I am trying to hold on to hope for Jan/Feb which is when we see are biggest snowfalls. I know we're all beyond jaded given the past few years.

 

I'm a glass half full guy usually looking for some silver lining but the LR this morning is not good.  Once again the Pacific is really screwing us in the east.  This time it's causing mild Pacific air to flood Canada over the next couple of weeks.  I'm always optimistic when Canada has cold air.  When it doesn't, it's no bueno.  

[NorthHillsWx]

It is certainly concerning seeing the consensus towards a prolonged mild pattern for the entire continent. We’ll need to see some signs of cold air building up north to have any hope going into January. Like I said earlier, kicking the can through December isn’t the worst but it becomes an issue if we’re still sniffing for a change in the LR when the calendar flips to January 

[Benjamn3]

Really the best I can tell, the GFS and CMC ensembles aren’t a torch or shorts and flip flops on Xmas. Looks a touch above seasonal. We are kicking the can for some real cold or a shot at snow. However it’s not a shit show, and so much can change 2 weeks out. Fingers crossed. I have a hope things will look better in the coming days. We don’t believe good news, so let’s not believe the mediocre either. Lol

[olafminesaw]

Going back 50 years at GSO, 62% of the time there is no measurable snow in the month of December. Of course when factoring in the December totals, years with snowfall in December have a higher average snowfall at 9.8" vs 6.5" in years without snow in December. However, when looking at January through April snowfall in isolation, there is no meaningful correlation to whether snow accumulates in the month of December (6.9" in years with snow in December vs 6.4 in years without). So going forward we shouldn't be pessimistic about our chances in the new Year, knowing that confidence in modeling more than 10 days out is near zero.

[SnowDawg]

I'm just really nervous about the strength and resiliency of that -EPO and Pacific Jet. Once locked in they can be hard to ever really get rid of. May end up having to bank on threading the needle during brief periods where it relaxes/retracts, as opposed to getting any real extended cold to work with.

[PackGrad05]

Sustained cold is nice, but it really only takes a good shot of cold air to time up right with some moisture.  That's about as good as you can ask for around here.  

 

That anomaly map isn't that dire.  4-6 degrees above average this time of year is highs in mid-to-upper 50s.  With lows in 30s and 40s at night that's fine by me.  Far from a torch.

[GaWx]

 The MEI warmed from +0.3 in SO to +0.6 in NO. That warming is good news as the 10 coldest El Niño winters in the SE US since 1950 had a DJ MEI of +0.5 to +1.5. So, we needed the MEI to warm up and now we’ll need the next two MEIs to maintain this warmup and preferably warm a little more as we reach DJ. The 10 coldest El Niño winters back to 1951-2 were 1957-8, 1963-4, 1965-6, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, 2002-3, 2009-10, and 2014-5. Per Webb’s table these were the rounded DJ MEIs:

+1.5, +0.9, +1.3, +1.2, +0.8, +0.8, +0.7, +1.0, +1.1, and +0.5.

 So, a range of +0.5 to +1.5 for the DJ MEI with a mean of +0.95 and a median of +0.95. So, sweet spot near +1.0 for the 10 coldest in the SE.

  The 6 coldest were 1957-8, 1963-4, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, and 2009-10.

 MEIs for these 6: +1.5, +0.9, +0.8, +0.8, +0.7, and +1.1. So, range of +0.7 to +1.5 with mean of +1.0 and median of +0.85.

 

 El Niño Winters with DJ MEI within +0.5 to +1.5 that weren’t cold:

-1958-9: +0.7 cool

-1979-80: +0.7 NN

-1986-7: +1.1 NN

-1987-8: +0.9 cool

-1991-2: +1.5 mild

-1994-5: +0.9 NN

-2006-7: +0.8 NN

 

  So, when DJ MEI was within +0.5 to +1.5 during El Niño, the SE had a cold winter 10 times, cool twice, NN 4 times, and mild once.

 When the DJ MEI was outside that range during El Niño (7 times with 4 higher and 3 lower), the SE had no cold winters.

 For the SE if we could get a DJ MEI to within the +0.6 to +1.2 range, a <-0.50 DJF AO, and a <+0.25 NAO, I’d bet heavily on a 2F or more BN DJF.

 

—————-
MEI:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

[buckeyefan1]

I'm just as frustrated as you all and I keep reminding myself that the December warmth was advertised well in advance and to be patient. I know. It's freaking hard to do after the disaster of last winter.    

 

Better times are coming. They always do.     Hopefully it's sooner rather than later  

[StantonParkHoya]

We had ice age Christmases last two years and the rest of the seasons sucked, so maybe this does the opposite 

[NorthHillsWx]

11 hours ago, Benjamn3 said:

Really the best I can tell, the GFS and CMC ensembles aren’t a torch or shorts and flip flops on Xmas. Looks a touch above seasonal. We are kicking the can for some real cold or a shot at snow. However it’s not a shit show, and so much can change 2 weeks out. Fingers crossed. I have a hope things will look better in the coming days. We don’t believe good news, so let’s not believe the mediocre either. Lol

While I will admit there aren’t any really warm days in the LR, it’s freaking above freezing across the entire US outside of mountain areas for days straight in mid-late December across the border. I mean when ND is struggling to get below freezing (not below zero) in late December, we are in major major trouble for a long time

[NorthHillsWx]

Early next week’s Miller A with a perfect storm track and absolutely no cold air is going to sting. That being said, if that track continues this year eventually we will score

[jpbart]

13 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I'm just as frustrated as you all and I keep reminding myself that the December warmth was advertised well in advance and to be patient. I know. It's freaking hard to do after the disaster of last winter.    

 

Better times are coming. They always do.     Hopefully it's sooner rather than later  

After a season when it snowed at the coast and in the mountains, and everywhere but in Columbia, SC.  I have learned to relax and just enjoy the show.  Do not get my hopes up too much, and do not get too frustrated when it all goes bust.  Years of being a Phillies fan has prepared me for this, it's all ok.  Just relax, have a glass of bourbon and see what mother nature is up to.