Upstate Tiger Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Hmmm. Another cold shot in two weeks after next weeks cold shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Like seeing the CPC 8-14 day hazard map with the blue here https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 The GFS has a high temp of 84 on Monday and an afternoon high of 47 on Tuesday. While spoiled in the record books by a midnight high, this would be about as extreme a swing as we see around here! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Looks like we could get a coastal low on Sunday. Not a moment too soon. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday: Rainfall will continue on Saturday as the surface front makes its way across the region...likely exiting to the southeast by late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Thereafter, deterministic guidance continues to depict it stalling, whereupon a robust upper shortwave will arrive and instigate cyclogenesis along the Carolina coast. This`ll give us another shot at some rainfall...with the new QPF forecast giving the SC zones another 0.25" or more on Sunday and Sunday night (more than half an inch per the 12z GFS, which ironically has trended toward stronger cyclogenesis than the ECMWF after barely developing the feature at all on the 06z cycle). All things considered, while this rain won`t quiet offset the ongoing drought, it`ll bring some much-needed moisture to the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 When is this above average El Niño rainfall supposed to start? It is bone dry. We have received a total of 0.18” the last 4 weeks from one rainfall 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: When is this above average El Niño rainfall supposed to start? It is bone dry. We have received a total of 0.18” the last 4 weeks from one rainfall Here is a comparison of temp/precip departures depending on enso state. It seems that El Nino skus more wet in the winter months vs in the fall months. Although El Nino years have reasonable odds of being dry as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 Rain shield activated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 38 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Rain shield activated That is pathetic for the whole run. This is a shit pattern we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 The big dry high pressure to the NE is killing our rain chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The big dry high pressure to the NE is killing our rain chances Yeah we need a whole hemispheric shake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 The entire state of NC will be in moderate + drought in the next couple weeks. Starting to become a ground water/fire issue. Went over the Tar river yesterday and it’s the lowest I’ve seen it in years 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 4 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Here is a comparison of temp/precip departures depending on enso state. It seems that El Nino skus more wet in the winter months vs in the fall months. Although El Nino years have reasonable odds of being dry as well Indeed, the Sep-Oct period is often dry in/in advance of moderate+ Ninos with E coast wetness not starting til Nov or Dec: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 No worries. The coming winter STJ will solve our problems 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 Thanksgiving fantasy. Honestley, I'd take anything wet falling from the sky. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 29 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Thanksgiving fantasy. Honestley, I'd take anything wet falling from the sky. Looking like we may have to wait till about then to see anything wet good lord 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 It won't verify but: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 It won't verify but:First of the season. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 9, 2023 Author Share Posted November 9, 2023 It looks like El Niño arrives late next weekish it seems 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 10, 2023 Share Posted November 10, 2023 0z GFS drops less that 0.10” of rain across much of central NC through the end of the run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 Still interesting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 58 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Still interesting Flashbacks to last December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 11, 2023 Share Posted November 11, 2023 More rain to come after the run ends. This would certainly be a drought buster 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 On the other hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted November 12, 2023 Share Posted November 12, 2023 5 hours ago, olafminesaw said: On the other hand... Booo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 Some signs of moisture in the 4-10 day period 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted November 13, 2023 Share Posted November 13, 2023 chilly thanksgiving? Who knows- EPS is flip flopping.. latest run Yesterday's run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 No meaningful rain on the GFS in the next 10 days. The Euro brings through a frontal system next Wednesday that drops .5-1". Unfortunately we've seen how these fronts have dried out as they've approached. Hopefully we get a pattern change around or just after Thanksgiving. I am glad we are stuck in this pattern now and not in mid January! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 14, 2023 Share Posted November 14, 2023 If the 12 GFS is to be believed, we enter a very active period beginning next Tuesday through the end of the run. Hoping it is right this time and we get the storms showing up on this run. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 From KGSP. Will be a mess for early travelers, but we need the rain! This should kick off an active couple of weeks. This high will remain transitory into Mon and ridge down the east into the FA maintaining near normal temperatures. Meanwhile, northern stream Pac energy combines with the srn STJ over the West in a split flow regime, which then creates a well defined and deep mlvl trof across the MS Valley by Mon night. This trof will be highly dynamic as deep layered shear nears 100 kts and combines with good GOM moisture flux and creates a good set-up for sigfnt rainfall and possibly a few organized thunderstorms across the srn half of the area. There`s remains uncertainty with the amt of destabilization ahead of the llvl forcing, but the model trends are going up with the ECMWF and CMC models indicating arnd 200 J/kg of sbCAPE within the warm sector during max heating. So a high shear / low CAPE strong storm environment is looking more possible. Soundings also show very high levels of 0-3 km helicity (>600 m2/s2), however, this is mostly due to the aforementioned sfc wedge producing ne/ly at the sfc. But as usual, the wedge bndry areas will suspect for more organized cell development. In any case, this system looks to be a good precip producer, the best in the last few months, with possibly 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rain over many areas thru Tue night. With high cloud cover and ne/ly flow, highs Mon thru Wed will be held abt 5 degrees below normal with lows averaging arnd normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 The first extreme drought since 2017 has been issued for some of NC's SW counties. Next Tuesday's system is looking promising for rainfall, especially for the mountains. it looks like a long duration rainfall which will help prevent runoff as well 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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