Jmoon Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 8 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: Finally feeling like summer next week. And a level 2 severe threat for Monday. It's been great not having to feel the real summer heat and humidity until almost the first week of July this year. You don't get to say that hardly ever around these parts in the southeast. I can say 2003-2013-2023. 3 out of the last 21 years counting this summer. I'm enjoying it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 consensus of model forecasts suggests the greatest instability will develop from central North Carolina into southern and central Virginia, where MLCAPE values appear likely to reach the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In addition to moderate instability, NAM forecast soundings near Richmond, Virginia and Raleigh, North Carolina have steep mid-level lapse rates with relatively cool temperatures aloft. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range will likely support supercell development. The potential for supercells will be greatest early in the afternoon, before storms merge into a line. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that develop in areas that destabilize the most. The current thinking is that a relatively quick transition to a line will occur. This line is forecast to become organized, moving eastward across the Piedmont into the Raleigh/Durham and Richmond areas during the late afternoon. Wind-damage will be likely along the leading edge of the stronger parts of this line segment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 At GSO, the percentage of years in which the first 90 degree day falls in each month are as follows: March:1.7% April: 18.6% May: 45.8% June: 30.5% July: 3.4% (4 years out of 118) Funnily enough, 2 out of the 4 years that made it to July were 2017 & 2020, and we haven't had a March or April date since 2006. It's going to be really close to making it to July, with a forecast high of 89 on Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 Another way to measure our cool start to the warm months: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 29, 2023 Share Posted June 29, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: I was just looking at this! These things are so hard to predict. They almost always fizzle once they hit the mountains and we get the scraps. But we are in an interesting spot just on the northern edge of the heat dome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 Sunday looking not only hot but also sticky. A rude awakening from a nice start to summer 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Take that, climatological hottest part of the year! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 3, 2023 Share Posted July 3, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 6, 2023 Share Posted July 6, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted July 6, 2023 Share Posted July 6, 2023 Just keep it out of the Southeast as long as we can! Its hot enough here now.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 -PNA may bring that SW ridge east through mid/late July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 Don’t come East! No whammies, no whammies! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 We will get some of it... it's inevitable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 4 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Don’t come East! No whammies, no whammies! Ring of fire pattern offering some relief for SE US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Summer in summer ok.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 A return to smoky air next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 While we deal with this ongoing hot pattern...latest ENSO predictions increase chance for moderate to strong El Nino. 97/98 and 15/16 are analogs. Neither were stellar years in the SE FWIW but it only takes one! The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Forecasters favor continued growth of El Niño through the fall, peaking this winter with moderate-to-strong intensity (81% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). An event that becomes "historically strong" (seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 ≥ 2.0°C), rivaling the winters of 1997-98 or 2015-16, has an approximately 1 in 5 chance. In summary, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter [Fig. 7]. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 On 7/14/2023 at 3:02 PM, Upstate Tiger said: While we deal with this ongoing hot pattern...latest ENSO predictions increase chance for moderate to strong El Nino. 97/98 and 15/16 are analogs. Neither were stellar years in the SE FWIW but it only takes one! The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Forecasters favor continued growth of El Niño through the fall, peaking this winter with moderate-to-strong intensity (81% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). An event that becomes "historically strong" (seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 ≥ 2.0°C), rivaling the winters of 1997-98 or 2015-16, has an approximately 1 in 5 chance. In summary, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter [Fig. 7]. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Ryan Hall is not really calling for a strong nino this year but it's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 9 hours ago, CaryWx said: Ryan Hall is not really calling for a strong nino this year but it's still early. Hope he's right Cary. BTW, just saw the other thread on 23/24 winter predictions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Name it and claim it! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 I’m 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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