Met1985 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 4 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: Looking ahead to fall and winter. Odds are increasing of a moderate to strong El Nino in the late fall and winter. Climatologically, not great for SE snow but has to be better than 3 years of Nina. I have posted the strong to moderate El Nino years below. There are some winners in the there for major storms... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Yeah we don't want a strong Nino because it'll flood the whole country with warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 We're really getting rocked here now, harder than the late morning activity. Very heavy rains, frequent lightning, and gusty winds are all occurring. This reminds me why I hate satellite dish vs cable! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 I deove through the last wave heading west from downtown Savannah last night. Really heavy rain and some intense lightning for a bit. And too many people driving with hazard lights on... A friend took this picture of the tornado-warned storm in Effingham. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 Good model agreement on heavy rainfall next week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 4 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Good model agreement on heavy rainfall next week. We need it. Flash drought here. Just 0.08” for the month and everything has gotten crispy in a hurry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 21 hours ago, Sandstorm94 said: *looks at 72-73... We ALL know what happened that year Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Yep. I love the 76-80 weak nino! 4 straight epic winters from my youth! I believe that was a also a predominantly negative NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 Did I complain too much about the lack of rain? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 GFS brings the cutoff low further south. Central NC is completely dry through the run. This would run up significant drought conditions 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: GFS brings the cutoff low further south. Central NC is completely dry through the run. This would run up significant drought conditions The GEFS actually ticked north at 12z, but in general the trend has not been our friend. I do think Charlotte and South should get enough rain to mitigate drought concerns. And for them mountains many areas will do well as a result of orographic lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 18, 2023 Share Posted June 18, 2023 Best June ever 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted June 18, 2023 Share Posted June 18, 2023 53 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Best June ever I’m in a steady state of complaining about the rain but also knowing we need it. I think the biggest bummer is that 90% of the weekends this whole year have sucked. It’s making me extra bitter, especially considering we couldn’t even drum up a dusting of snow this winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 18, 2023 Share Posted June 18, 2023 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: I’m in a steady state of complaining about the rain but also knowing we need it. I think the biggest bummer is that 90% of the weekends this whole year have sucked. It’s making me extra bitter, especially considering we couldn’t even drum up a dusting of snow this winter. This weekend has been absolutely perfect though. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted June 18, 2023 Share Posted June 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: This weekend has been absolutely perfect though. Can’t argue that! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 Strong agreement on what could be the wettest week since 2018. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 9 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Strong agreement on what could be the wettest week since 2018. Figures. Was supposed to play in a golf tournament tomorrow lol. Can't complain too much. We finally had a nice weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 We are very quickly only going to have 60 days left of avg hi temps above 85° here in the Triad. This is getting close to the summer that never was, but I dont want to jinx us quite yet. So far, I'll take this over torch/humidity any day. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 22 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: We are very quickly only going to have 60 days left of avg hi temps above 85° here in the Triad. This is getting close to the summer that never was, but I dont want to jinx us quite yet. So far, I'll take this over torch/humidity any day. Summer just started, you got at least 90 days of that left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 With the majority of the rain behind us, time to look ahead to Monday to our next severe threat. Not a particularly high ceiling, but looks like it could be an enhanced type day if the timing is right ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region on Monday, as an associated trough moves into the upper Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F, will likely be in place from the Carolinas north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of this moist airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form in the higher terrain will move east-northeastward into the Appalachian foothills during the afternoon. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates will likely result in a some severe storms. Wind damage and hail are expected to be the primary threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 5 hours ago, olafminesaw said: With the majority of the rain behind us, time to look ahead to Monday to our next severe threat. Not a particularly high ceiling, but looks like it could be an enhanced type day if the timing is right ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region on Monday, as an associated trough moves into the upper Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F, will likely be in place from the Carolinas north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Moderate instability is forecast to develop across much of this moist airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form in the higher terrain will move east-northeastward into the Appalachian foothills during the afternoon. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates will likely result in a some severe storms. Wind damage and hail are expected to be the primary threats. I will be ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 43 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: This June has a real possibility of making the top 10 coolest Junes going back to 1903 at GSO, even with the upcoming warmup. At the very least, it should beat out 2003, the coolest of this century. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 A cooler-than-normal warm season is not at all surprising, especially if we do end up going into a Super Nino this year. Still, they won't be perfect analogs given the climatology this map uses and major differences in SST patterns elsewhere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Finally feeling like summer next week. And a level 2 severe threat for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Nam sounding looking rather impressive for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 NAM definitely has higher CAPE than GFS and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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