cbmclean Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 43 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The 18Z GEFS looks very similar to the 12Z EPS, with most of the good snow being west of I-85... The GEFS also shows the precipitation beginning on Friday 1/13 and lasting until 1/15. Temperatures too warm for central NC. EURO shows highs near 37 on Saturday during bulk of precip. Triad and west stays around freezing. I accept it. Rooting for the west crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 0Z GFS and ICON say no widespread SE winter storm 1/13-15. Surface low tracks further north/way too far north and thus way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 But the 0Z CMC has the low back way far south on the Gulf coast and thus is back to wintry precip just like two, three, and four runs ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 CMC is a BIG hit for central NC, Southern and Central VA and the Mountains Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 That's a large hit on the Canadian tonight,looks like the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 This might be the most insane clown map I have ever seen for this area in my 25+ years of following models. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Lolll CMC with 50" plus in Sw VASent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: This might be the most insane clown map I have ever seen in my 25+ years of following models. 52.3 inches. Buffalo is unimpressed. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Not even the Euro can pull that off lolSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 The UK has the shortwave at day 6 in west central New Mexico,very close to the Canadian position maybe even a tick southwest of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said: The UK has the shortwave at day 6 in west central New Mexico,very close to the Canadian position maybe even a tick southwest of it. However, this run doesn't have the 970 mb low off SE Canada that the 12Z had and is thus not nearly as cold ahead of the storm. The 12Z looked like it was heading toward a huge mess in the SE after the end. This run isn't as threatening for especially more southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 So far (hour 132), the 0Z Euro doesn't look as threatening as the 12Z, mainly because there's no surface low on the way to being the very strong low that the 12Z had that helped lock in cold in the SE ahead of the SE storm, itself. Also, H5 isn't so far as strong for the storm, itself. Going further out, the SE Canadian high is weaker and there's no precursor storm to help bring down cold air into the SE. The H5 for the potential SE storm is weaker, too. Edit: not surprisingly, a big fail on this run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 0Z EPS has similar change to the 0Z Euro with much weaker or no precursor surface low to help bring down and lock cold air in the SE. Thus, I expect this run won't be as wintry as the last one. Let's see.... Edit: confirmed to have less wintry precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 If the GFS OP beats out the CMC GEFS, Euro and EPS for this, I'm gonna be ticked lolSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: If the GFS OP beats out the CMC GEFS, Euro and EPS for this, I'm gonna be ticked lol Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Count it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 It was fun while it lasted, unless trends boomerang back the other direction. EPS reduced probabilities dramatically... Less than 10 members showing anything (trace or so) for RDU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Will probably see more wobbles with the runs for late next week... it does flatten everyone's tires to go from some consistency of snow/ice to nothing at all...Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Will probably see more wobbles with the runs for late next week... it does flatten everyone's tires to go from some consistency of snow/ice to nothing at all... Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk I don't think we're really that much further from a positive outcome than we were yesterday. What we're seeing though, is how many things have to go right, with little or no below average temps to pull from anywhere in North America. A perfect low track, perfect placement & timing of the 50/50, sufficiently strong Canadian HP, etc. A perfect setup up top still means living on a razors edge WRT track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 This winter feels like the ghost of 2011-2012 in some ways but we shall see. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Bradford Pears will be blooming in 7 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Bradford Pears will be blooming in 7 weeks Nah, El Niño is going to spring up at just the perfect time to delay that and give you a March and April full of cold rain dreams. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 45 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Nah, El Niño is going to spring up at just the perfect time to delay that and give you a March and April full of cold rain dreams. March will save us this winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 12Z ICON has no SE wintry precip as the low is way too far north and there's no strong precursor low to lock in the cold from the Canadian high. This allows for way too much warmth ahead of it for SE wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 GFS and Canadian= fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 The GFS is definitely improved, but still a Miller B mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I'm telling ya'll that I'll be mowing fields again this weekend just like I did last weekend. And that cold snap did absolutely nothing for the bugs. Flies were everywhere! Even the Euro couldn't hold on to a fantasy storm. We need a hero. Nino where are you?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 12z GFS is definitely an improvement for sure. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 22 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS and Canadian= fail Yes. CMC low was about a 1000 miles north. Who Can host a weenie roast? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Not terrible, just need that High to slide south more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 GEFS won't bad for this range. Hopefully the Euro will be better Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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