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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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CAD_Wedge_NC
CAD_Wedge_NC

Good, then why are you still here trolling everybody else? I don't want to see any posts from you when there is a valid threat. Also, I don't appreciate being called a weenie for remembering that it's

kvegas-wx
kvegas-wx

I say this with the love of the forum in mind on Valentines Day @GaWx, you have typed volumes of highly valuable information into this thread over the last few weeks.  More than most of us will ever u

burgertime
burgertime

First, good luck to everyone this winter. I’ve been starting to track winter weather here in the Netherlands.   Decided to check in on what was going on in the SE with the pattern change. Next

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 The 12Z ICON has a close call to an inland SE winter storm late 3/19 through 3/20. To show how uncommonly cold it is on this run, it has highs way down here only in the low 50s on 3/19 and upper 40s on 3/20, both near record low highs due to clouds/rain. NC has highs only in the 40s on 3/19 and mainly low 40s on 3/20. RDU's record low high for 3/20 is 41.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 Together with the 12Z ICON close call, the 12Z GFS on 3/21 and CMC on 3/21-2 having actual wintry precip in some areas of the SE tells me the winter storm signal is still very much intact and probably increasing. Details on operational runs are unimportant this far out.

 MJO phase 2 is the most supportive phase for cold and precip (specifically from GOM lows) this time of year fwiw and that's about where it is projected to be by most models then.

 Per my memory, this already appears to be the strongest threat of a winter storm in a decent portion of the SE within 8 days so far this winter. It may not materialize, but at least it is a nontrivial possibility in contrast to just about the entire cold season so far.

Edit: 12Z GEFS GOM to offshore SE US storm and cold signal for 3/20 is rather impressive. This continues through 3/21 with another batch of GOM storms then, which are closer to the coast.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

12Z Euro has mixed precip along the TX coast at 180 hours. Temps are in the 40s, but still that's quite remarkable.

 Edit: 12Z Euro mixed precip on 3/21 Augusta to Charlotte corridor.

 Link to mixed precip TX coast on 12Z Euro at 180 for @Ed, snow and hurricane fan

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031312&fh=180&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

2M temps are in the mid 40s but 850s are only in the +1C to +2C range on the TX coast then.

Edit: So, I think this is the first Euro run with any SE wintry precip from the offshore low.

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Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro has mixed precip along the TX coast at 180 hours. Temps are in the 40s, but still that's quite remarkable.

 Edit: 12Z Euro mixed precip on 3/21 Augusta to Charlotte corridor.

 Link to mixed precip TX coast on 12Z Euro at 180 for @Ed, snow and hurricane fan

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031312&fh=180&r=us_sc&dpdt=&mc=

2M temps are in the mid 40s but 850s are only in the +1C to +2C range on the TX coast then.

Edit: So, I think this is the first Euro run with any SE wintry precip from the offshore low.

Foot plus in the Chisos and Davis Mountains.  This holds I'll start a Texas Winter Weather thread before St. Patrick's Day.  For some reason, Cardinal DiNardo says we can eat meat.  Helps all 67 people of Irish ancestry in Houston, I guess.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Foot plus in the Chisos and Davis Mountains.  This holds I'll start a Texas Winter Weather thread before St. Patrick's Day.  For some reason, Cardinal DiNardo says we can eat meat.  Helps all 67 people of Irish ancestry in Houston, I guess.

I just checked Houston records and it appears that the latest in the season wintry precip on record was on 3/27/1930, the only one on 3/18 or later. I checked nearby cities and found that Austin had 0.1" on 3/27/1930 with a high of 42 and low of 34. So, the T at Houston appears legit.

 The main point here is how unusual a setup is indicated for that period.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 It is all about the potential since this regards 7-8 days out. This 12Z EPS linked map to individual member SLPs tells me there's potential with many members having an offshore SE coast low; a strong (1035ish), pretty large, and very cold high for March 20th in a near perfect position moving by in the climo favored path well to the north instead of plunging down and keeping it dry; CAD potential; a 50-50ish low to keep it from modifying too quickly; and it holding cold enough at 850 past this period for much of inland SE.

 It would be a challenge due to it already being March 20-21 then, but we already knew that and significant SE wintry precip has happened then and even later. The MJO is supportive and there is even a weak +PNA and -NAO along with a just passed secondary -AO peak. The ducks are there right now. Will they stay?

Edit: linked 12Z EPS map:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2023031312&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 How realistic is the possibility of a significant snow hit for RDU early next week? Here's some history of 1"+ within a week of this period: (3/13-28)

3/18/1893: 1.5"
3/20-21/1908: 2.3"
3/22/1914: 3"
3/13/1926: 4.2"
3/15/1934: 2"
3/24/1940: 7"
3/13/1941: 1"
3/27-8/1947: 2.8"
3/15/1952: 1.2"
3/25-6/1971 5.4"
3/25/1972: 2.6"
3/25/1974: 2.5"
3/24/1983: 7.3"

 - So, there were more than I expected, 13. This means they've occurred about once every 10 years on average. And this isn't even including the smaller snows!

- They're way overdue as it has been 40 years since the last one! Before this, there had been no more than 19 years between them.

- Oddly enough, the heaviest and most frequent were late rather than early with 3/24-6 dominating!

- This all tells me that getting good snow early next week at and near RDU is a reasonable hope.

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

(sorry, can't help myself)

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png

When I fly back from Orlando that day they better have the dang highway plowed.  :lol:

Honestly this is about the only type of event that would stand a chance of coming to fruition right now so you might as well embrace it while it lasts, which will probably be about 4 more hours.

That drive from Wake to Alamance county though.  :sled:  

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

When I fly back from Orlando that day they better have the dang highway plowed.  :lol:

Honestly this is about the only type of event that would stand a chance of coming to fruition right now so you might as well embrace it while it lasts, which will probably be about 4 more hours.

That drive from Wake to Alamance county though.  :sled:  

LOL ridiculous although the last place I want to be stuck is in Graham ;)

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greendave

greendave

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, eyewall said:

LOL ridiculous although the last place I want to be stuck is in Graham ;)

Well - if you know what freezes over - i'll meet ya'll for a good plate of 'cue, burger, or a hazy IPA if that's your thing....lil' ol' Graham is coming around....there's even a little barcade we can rent out....do i smell a Spring Equinox party?

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, greendave said:

Well - if you know what freezes over - i'll meet ya'll for a good plate of 'cue, burger, or a hazy IPA if that's your thing....lil' ol' Graham is coming around....there's even a little barcade we can rent out....do i smell a Spring Equinox party?

Yeah they just have the horrible racist Sheriff, that damn monument, and some Neo-Confederates hanging around, otherwise that is true. Anyway looking at 12z it still there.

 

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olafminesaw

olafminesaw

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Hard to ignore the signal on the GFS. Unfortunately the CMC and EURO have been warmer with rain. Need 1 of them to jump on board.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

CMC isn't far off, but wish there were some suppressed, cold/dry solutions from the globals.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

CMC isn't far off, but wish there were some suppressed, cold/dry solutions from the globals.

 - I'd put the 12Z UKMET in that category.

- The 12Z ICON and CMC have nothing all that threatening.

- Regardless, the strongest signal so far this winter for a *potential* significant snowfall remains and is making this easily the most exciting period regarding winter storm potential for the SE forum to this point. There's a good chance for a thread for this in the near future. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean this storm will actually occur.

- This doesn't mean that some of these GFS clown maps aren't absolutely ridiculous lol. But a rather widespread area of multiple inches of wet snow favoring inland and more northern areas of the SE is a reasonable possibility considering the many runs having it, how cold the preceding airmass is (-15C at 850 in NE TN two days prior, very rare for mid March that far south), having the Canadian high skirting by to our north rather than plunging, having a 50/50 type low to slow down cold modification, progged moist WSW H5 flow/split flow with good chance for a GOM low, having the most supportive MJO phase for March (2), and this is now earlier than fantasyland.

- As shown earlier, longtime climo isn't exactly nonsupportive with an average of one every 10 years (especially in NC) though RDU is way overdue for 1"+ near this period as it has been 40 years!

- The -15 C progged at 850 for 3/19 in NE TN is something like 18 C BN for the date meaning about as cold as it ever gets at 850 there then. This would be well BN even in January!

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Gonna be amped and rain on the Euro

 It probably needs to come in earlier, similar to the timing of the Euro's weaker low offshore FL the day before, to take full advantage of the cold air before it modifies too much. That earlier weaker low actually produced light mixed precip in a few spots in GA/SC the day before (3/20). Several runs of the ensembles have shown this predecessor low offshore the SE.

 The ducks remain on the pond. So, at least they're very persistent. But will they end up quacking?

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