MJO812 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 22 hours ago, eyewall said: This is the winter from hell. We are going to be in the mid 80's on Thursday. This is the winter from hell for many areas. I'm up to a whopping 0.2 here in NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is the winter from hell for many areas. I'm up to a whopping 0.2 here in NYC. Outside of Buffalo and Maine, pretty much everyone in the east is sharing the misery this year 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Based on AccuWeather forecasts the piedmont will be near record warm for February: GSO: +7.8, 1.1 degrees below the record RAH: +8.6, .5 degrees below the record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 34 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Outside of Buffalo and Maine, pretty much everyone in the east is sharing the misery this year Buffalo was lucky that they got crushed by those 2 freak events . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Every cold shot this winter, even the Christmas cold to an extent, was a pretty quick in and out. The cold would become less and less on the models as we got closer to verification time, and the "cold" (what little there was) was almost immediately flushed out. Even the cold from this past weekend only lasted 24 hours or so. It seems the PNA is probably the most important piece of the puzzle. Not absolutely required, but without it, you're pretty close to having to thread the needle to get any kind of winter event. Just look at the snow maps over the next 10 days and it seems pretty obvious that pacific air is just ripping across the southern 2/3's of the country. Until the PNA approaches neutral (or hopefully goes positive), I think we're out of luck. A few weeks from now, even the positive PNA won't be enough for many. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Problem is — for those still seeking snow — by the time you get into March it takes really anomalous cold to get an event. Average high at RDU is in the 60s in a little over a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Divine Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Problem is — for those still seeking snow — by the time you get into March it takes really anomalous cold to get an event. Average high at RDU is in the 60s in a little over a week. But statistically atleast in the Carolinas the first part of March is actually the "snowiest day". For example, Charlotte is March 2nd. Not saying it will happen but it happens more in March than you are giving it credit for. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 30 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Every cold shot this winter, even the Christmas cold to an extent, was a pretty quick in and out. The cold would become less and less on the models as we got closer to verification time, and the "cold" (what little there was) was almost immediately flushed out. Even the cold from this past weekend only lasted 24 hours or so. It seems the PNA is probably the most important piece of the puzzle. Not absolutely required, but without it, you're pretty close to having to thread the needle to get any kind of winter event. Just look at the snow maps over the next 10 days and it seems pretty obvious that pacific air is just ripping across the southern 2/3's of the country. Until the PNA approaches neutral (or hopefully goes positive), I think we're out of luck. A few weeks from now, even the positive PNA won't be enough for many. TW ^^^ over the last 3 years PNA has been the most important teleconnection for our area. Perhaps a flip to Nino will offset some of the influence of -PNA in ways that lead to less of the above. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: Problem is — for those still seeking snow — by the time you get into March it takes really anomalous cold to get an event. Average high at RDU is in the 60s in a little over a week. Not everyone lives in Raleigh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 7 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: RAH now has my forecast high up to 89 degrees for Thursday. Not only would this shatter the daily record high, but also the highest temp EVER recorded for RDU for the entire month (84). If we broke the record high for the month by 5 degrees, this would have to be one of the most dramatic smashing of a monthly temp record ever for the site. Also, with no mitigating factors for a record high temp event in central NC Thursday, another very important record may be in jeopardy: first 90 degree day. The earliest first 90 degree temp at RDU is March 12. This would shatter that record set in 1990. Seriously impressive heat for mid-late February coming this week in a historic early season heat wave Seems high...even Toccoa GA has a forecast of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 12z GFS gets no areas outside of the mountains and south of Virginia below freezing through March 8 (end of run). Very bad setup for early spring growth and costly freezes down the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 It sounds crazy after the warmth late this week, but gotta still watch this coming Saturday for a little light freezing precip, with the high locked in and moisture running along the a warm front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 34 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: It sounds crazy after the warmth late this week, but gotta still watch this coming Saturday for a little light freezing precip, with the high locked in and moisture running along the a warm front. With that look in late February one would usually expect a solid CAD event but under the curtains it’s still too warm for most everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: It sounds crazy after the warmth late this week, but gotta still watch this coming Saturday for a little light freezing precip, with the high locked in and moisture running along the a warm front. The models are doubting the freezing part other than near the VA border, but regardless, much of NC has a good chance to be 40-45 colder Saturday afternoon vs Thu afternoon! They're projecting dewpoint drops from 60s to 20s during Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 23 minutes ago, GaWx said: The models are doubting the freezing part other than near the VA border, but regardless, much of NC has a good chance to be 40-45 colder Saturday afternoon vs Thu afternoon! They're projecting dewpoint drops from 60s to 20s during Friday. Add it to the pile of cases where the column was just a few degrees too warm all the way up. Still it's far enough out that it could certainly change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 7 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: 7.5 days left of met winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 After a mild period through 3/5 (warmer than the prior run), today's Euro weeklies *fwiw* are significantly colder than the prior run thanks to a stronger and persistent -NAO throughout March. The highlight is in mid-March, when nearly the entire US is BN (3/13-19)(see image below). That is the coldest map for any March week of any Weeklies run to date. I understand if folks doubt this based on this winter so far. Some may laugh at this, which would be understandable. But the major SSW we just had along with, believe it or not, another reversal of the 60N winds at the 10 mb level now being forecasted for about one week from now along with the progged solid -NAO throughout March tell me that a legit cold period is believable. Would that be cold enough for wintry precip in parts of the SE if it were to occur? Who knows but mid March is often still early enough for a state like NC at the least: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheels2 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 8 hours ago, Divine said: But statistically atleast in the Carolinas the first part of March is actually the "snowiest day". For example, Charlotte is March 2nd. Not saying it will happen but it happens more in March than you are giving it credit for. I think this is one of those things where it used to happen but won’t anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 52 minutes ago, GaWx said: After a mild period through 3/6 (warmer than the prior run), today's Euro weeklies *fwiw* are significantly colder than the prior run thanks to a stronger and persistent -NAO throughout March. The highlight is in mid-March, when nearly the entire US is BN (see image below). That is the coldest map for any March week of any Weeklies run to date. I understand if folks doubt this based on this winter so far. Some may laugh at this, which would be understandable. But the major SSW we just had along with, believe it or not, another reversal of the 60N winds at the 10 mb level now being forecasted for about one week from now along with the progged solid -NAO throughout March tell me that a legit cold period is believable. Would that be cold enough for wintry precip in parts of the SE if it were to occur? Who knows but mid March is often still early enough for a state like NC at the least: I kinda figured this may happen. It would’ve been too nice for the ridge to do ridge things when people would actually want it to. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I kinda figured this may happen. It would’ve been too nice for the ridge to do ridge things when people would actually want it to. Time for 30's and blowing snow for March and April. Just went you don't want it and it's a nuisance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 12 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: RAH now has my forecast high up to 89 degrees for Thursday. Not only would this shatter the daily record high, but also the highest temp EVER recorded for RDU for the entire month (84). If we broke the record high for the month by 5 degrees, this would have to be one of the most dramatic smashing of a monthly temp record ever for the site. Also, with no mitigating factors for a record high temp event in central NC Thursday, another very important record may be in jeopardy: first 90 degree day. The earliest first 90 degree temp at RDU is March 12. This would shatter that record set in 1990. Seriously impressive heat for mid-late February coming this week in a historic early season heat wave This has been one of the most inactive winters for the Blue Ridge mountains that I've ever experienced. We have crops, plants, and bulbs emerging up here. It's crazy! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 24 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: This has been one of the most inactive winters for the Blue Ridge mountains that I've ever experienced. We have crops, plants, and bulbs emerging up here. It's crazy! 2012 was worse 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 hours ago, GaWx said: After a mild period through 3/5 (warmer than the prior run), today's Euro weeklies *fwiw* are significantly colder than the prior run thanks to a stronger and persistent -NAO throughout March. The highlight is in mid-March, when nearly the entire US is BN (3/13-19)(see image below). That is the coldest map for any March week of any Weeklies run to date. I understand if folks doubt this based on this winter so far. Some may laugh at this, which would be understandable. But the major SSW we just had along with, believe it or not, another reversal of the 60N winds at the 10 mb level now being forecasted for about one week from now along with the progged solid -NAO throughout March tell me that a legit cold period is believable. Would that be cold enough for wintry precip in parts of the SE if it were to occur? Who knows but mid March is often still early enough for a state like NC at the least: March cold snap & frost just it time to hammer everything that will bloom when we hit 80 deg. this week. Been there and complained about that before. Ah, life in the south, no snow but inconvenient early spring frosts abound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Check this out about the major SSW and how the Euro Weeklies and extended GEFS are now clearly forecasting that the E US will be strongly affected especially on and after March 10th: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-sudden-stratospheric-warming-main-weather-impacts-united-states-canada-europe-forecast-fa/ 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Good read. Thank you for sharing. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherExperiment Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 20 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: Time for 30's and blowing snow for March and April. Just went you don't want it and it's a nuisance Seems like this has been a crazy winter for most, whether it be cold rain, blizzards, "heat waves," or extreme cold. Maybe some crazy snow in the Southeast in March or April is not out of the question. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 82 is the forecasted high for Thursday. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Brad Panovich forecasting 84 here in Cornelius on Thursday. Would set a new all-time high for the month of February. Crazy days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Truckee, Ca. getting slammed again. Go west young man ! MtHardware (tahoeweathercam.com) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Here's another that's my favorite from Truckee : Downtown Truckee | Tahoetopia 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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