Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

[olafminesaw]

Look at that lift right at the dendrite growth zone, lol! Could be a fun little squall line, albeit sub-severe

[GaWx]

 Fwiw, the 18Z GFS has a 1060 mb high centered in NE SD a week from tomorrow morning with temperatures near -30 F, which would be close to the coldest on record so late in the season. That would be both an alltime record SLP for that region (old record 1056) and an alltime lower 48 Feb SLP record (old record 1059):

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html

 Because that would be a record breaker, this run is stronger by a good margin than previous runs, and no other model has anything nearly that strong, the odds are high that this is too strong with the SLP and the cold. But, regardless, the overall model trends have been for a colder high plunging down into that area 2/23-4. 

 Regarding this high's later effects on the SE (2/24-5), the H5 flow is currently not forecasted to allow it to get that cold (similar to what happened with the early Feb plunge into the NE). But it is expected to lead to much colder than the prior warm days. Some NC locations could have highs on 2/25 40 F colder than those of just two days prior.

[WeatherHawk]

Off topic…..Has anyone noticed the national decline of air quality since February 6th…wonder what’s going on.  Why aren’t we hearing about this? 
Lately having over 200 AQI, PM 2.5 near Garner, NC.  The AQI across the nation has dramatically increased.  

[blueheels2]

38 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

Off topic…..Has anyone noticed the national decline of air quality since February 6th…wonder what’s going on.  Why aren’t we hearing about this? 
Lately having over 200 AQI, PM 2.5 near Garner, NC.  The AQI across the nation has dramatically increased.  

Ohio train derailment?

[NCWX]

42 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

Off topic…..Has anyone noticed the national decline of air quality since February 6th…wonder what’s going on.  Why aren’t we hearing about this? 
Lately having over 200 AQI, PM 2.5 near Garner, NC.  The AQI across the nation has dramatically increased.  

Where do you get the AQI info?  

[jharv]

1 hour ago, WeatherHawk said:

Off topic…..Has anyone noticed the national decline of air quality since February 6th…wonder what’s going on.  Why aren’t we hearing about this? 
Lately having over 200 AQI, PM 2.5 near Garner, NC.  The AQI across the nation has dramatically increased.  

Not sure what factors affect the AQI, but this is forest service controlled burn season in my area.  We end up with smoke haze quite often during Jan-March.

[GaWx]

 The 0Z GEFS mean has what appears to me the strongest -NAO yet for any GEFS run for late month into early March. It gets started ~2/26 and, intensifies into the first part of March, and persists through the end (3/4). This could very well be mainly due to the current SSW downwelling into the troposphere, which typically takes at least 10-14 days to get started assuming it actually does work its way down.

[Grayman]

So sad and lonely in here. SSW will save us all in March. Signed a fellow weenie 

[Coach McGuirk]

40 minutes ago, Grayman said:

So sad and lonely in here. SSW will save us all in March. Signed a fellow weenie 

probably cold rain

[GaWx]

 The GEFS (used in CPC daily updated charts for indices) based NAO forecasts have gone markedly in the -NAO direction over the last 4 day period:
 

- The 2/13 forecast had only 2 members (~6%) with a sub -0.25 NAO (what I consider -NAO) on 2/27. The mean for 2/27 on the 2/13 run was up at +0.5 vs 0 on the 2/16 run and -0.3 on the 2/17 run.

- The # of members with a -NAO on 2/27 rose sharply on the 2/14 run from 2 to 8 members (~25%).

- The 2/15 and 2/16 forecasts each had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/17 forecast has ~15 members (~50%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- So, the progression from the 2/13 run to the 2/17 run has been 2 to 8 to 10 to 10 to 15 members with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/16 forecast had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 3/1 vs ~23 (~75%) on the new one

- The 2/16 forecast had only 3 members (~10%) with a sub -1 NAO (what I consider a strong -NAO) on 3/1. The 2/17 forecast has 10 (~33%).

- The 2/16 forecast had 12 members (~40%) with a +0.25+ NAO (what I consider +NAO) on 3/1 vs only 3 (~10%) on the 2/17.

 With this trend toward -NAO for 2/27-3/1+ remaining strong even on today's run as per the above, I wonder if the trend will continue to an even stronger -NAO over the next few days of runs as the models get an even better grasp of the downwelling of the major SSW that won't peak til tomorrow (as per the 10 mb 60N winds). Keep in mind that the main period in question (2/26+) is still 9+ days out, which for this uncommon situation (a major SSW with a dip to ~-15 m/s 10 mb winds at 60N) is probably not the easiest for the models to handle well.

 Also, are the models correct in keeping a +AO with this increasingly strong progged -NAO? Or is the modeled AO going to start dropping if the progged -NAO keeps strengthening? I especially wonder about this since a strong -AO is often the hallmark of a successfully downwelled SSW.

  What do others think? It remains to be seen whether or not the SE will cool down significantly by early March. Unlike the NE even if the AO ends up also falling, the SE is likely going to also need the PNA to rise (better Pacific than currently). So far, modeling is hardly budging there.

[Coach McGuirk]

You have to give credit to GaWx for keeping hope alive.

[Upstate Tiger]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The GEFS (used in CPC daily updated charts for indices) based NAO forecasts have gone markedly in the -NAO direction over the last 4 day period:
 

- The 2/13 forecast had only 2 members (~6%) with a sub -0.25 NAO (what I consider -NAO) on 2/27. The mean for 2/27 on the 2/13 run was up at +0.5 vs 0 on the 2/16 run and -0.3 on the 2/17 run.

- The # of members with a -NAO on 2/27 rose sharply on the 2/14 run from 2 to 8 members (~25%).

- The 2/15 and 2/16 forecasts each had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/17 forecast has ~15 members (~50%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- So, the progression from the 2/13 run to the 2/17 run has been 2 to 8 to 10 to 10 to 15 members with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/16 forecast had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 3/1 vs ~23 (~75%) on the new one

- The 2/16 forecast had only 3 members (~10%) with a sub -1 NAO (what I consider a strong -NAO) on 3/1. The 2/17 forecast has 10 (~33%).

- The 2/16 forecast had 12 members (~40%) with a +0.25+ NAO (what I consider +NAO) on 3/1 vs only 3 (~10%) on the 2/17.

 With this trend toward -NAO for 2/27-3/1+ remaining strong even on today's run as per the above, I wonder if the trend will continue to an even stronger -NAO over the next few days of runs as the models get an even better grasp of the downwelling of the major SSW that won't peak til tomorrow (as per the 10 mb 60N winds). Keep in mind that the main period in question (2/26+) is still 9+ days out, which for this uncommon situation (a major SSW with a dip to ~-15 m/s 10 mb winds at 60N) is probably not the easiest for the models to handle well.

 Also, are the models correct in keeping a +AO with this increasingly strong progged -NAO? Or is the modeled AO going to start dropping if the progged -NAO keeps strengthening? I especially wonder about this since a strong -AO is often the hallmark of a successfully downwelled SSW.

  What do others think? It remains to be seen whether or not the SE will cool down significantly by early March. Unlike the NE even if the AO ends up also falling, the SE is likely going to also need the PNA to rise (better Pacific than currently). So far, modeling is hardly budging there.

Yep.  I’ve been watching for signs that the PNA will rise but the forecast for the next 10 days keeps it at least moderately positive.  

[K4CF]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The GEFS (used in CPC daily updated charts for indices) based NAO forecasts have gone markedly in the -NAO direction over the last 4 day period:
 

- The 2/13 forecast had only 2 members (~6%) with a sub -0.25 NAO (what I consider -NAO) on 2/27. The mean for 2/27 on the 2/13 run was up at +0.5 vs 0 on the 2/16 run and -0.3 on the 2/17 run.

- The # of members with a -NAO on 2/27 rose sharply on the 2/14 run from 2 to 8 members (~25%).

- The 2/15 and 2/16 forecasts each had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/17 forecast has ~15 members (~50%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- So, the progression from the 2/13 run to the 2/17 run has been 2 to 8 to 10 to 10 to 15 members with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/16 forecast had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 3/1 vs ~23 (~75%) on the new one

- The 2/16 forecast had only 3 members (~10%) with a sub -1 NAO (what I consider a strong -NAO) on 3/1. The 2/17 forecast has 10 (~33%).

- The 2/16 forecast had 12 members (~40%) with a +0.25+ NAO (what I consider +NAO) on 3/1 vs only 3 (~10%) on the 2/17.

 With this trend toward -NAO for 2/27-3/1+ remaining strong even on today's run as per the above, I wonder if the trend will continue to an even stronger -NAO over the next few days of runs as the models get an even better grasp of the downwelling of the major SSW that won't peak til tomorrow (as per the 10 mb 60N winds). Keep in mind that the main period in question (2/26+) is still 9+ days out, which for this uncommon situation (a major SSW with a dip to ~-15 m/s 10 mb winds at 60N) is probably not the easiest for the models to handle well.

 Also, are the models correct in keeping a +AO with this increasingly strong progged -NAO? Or is the modeled AO going to start dropping if the progged -NAO keeps strengthening? I especially wonder about this since a strong -AO is often the hallmark of a successfully downwelled SSW.

  What do others think? It remains to be seen whether or not the SE will cool down significantly by early March. Unlike the NE even if the AO ends up also falling, the SE is likely going to also need the PNA to rise (better Pacific than currently). So far, modeling is hardly budging there.

Thanks for your research and updates for this forum!

[dsaur]

On 2/17/2023 at 9:16 PM, GaWx said:

 The GEFS (used in CPC daily updated charts for indices) based NAO forecasts have gone markedly in the -NAO direction over the last 4 day period:
 

- The 2/13 forecast had only 2 members (~6%) with a sub -0.25 NAO (what I consider -NAO) on 2/27. The mean for 2/27 on the 2/13 run was up at +0.5 vs 0 on the 2/16 run and -0.3 on the 2/17 run.

- The # of members with a -NAO on 2/27 rose sharply on the 2/14 run from 2 to 8 members (~25%).

- The 2/15 and 2/16 forecasts each had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/17 forecast has ~15 members (~50%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- So, the progression from the 2/13 run to the 2/17 run has been 2 to 8 to 10 to 10 to 15 members with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/16 forecast had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 3/1 vs ~23 (~75%) on the new one

- The 2/16 forecast had only 3 members (~10%) with a sub -1 NAO (what I consider a strong -NAO) on 3/1. The 2/17 forecast has 10 (~33%).

- The 2/16 forecast had 12 members (~40%) with a +0.25+ NAO (what I consider +NAO) on 3/1 vs only 3 (~10%) on the 2/17.

 With this trend toward -NAO for 2/27-3/1+ remaining strong even on today's run as per the above, I wonder if the trend will continue to an even stronger -NAO over the next few days of runs as the models get an even better grasp of the downwelling of the major SSW that won't peak til tomorrow (as per the 10 mb 60N winds). Keep in mind that the main period in question (2/26+) is still 9+ days out, which for this uncommon situation (a major SSW with a dip to ~-15 m/s 10 mb winds at 60N) is probably not the easiest for the models to handle well.

 Also, are the models correct in keeping a +AO with this increasingly strong progged -NAO? Or is the modeled AO going to start dropping if the progged -NAO keeps strengthening? I especially wonder about this since a strong -AO is often the hallmark of a successfully downwelled SSW.

  What do others think? It remains to be seen whether or not the SE will cool down significantly by early March. Unlike the NE even if the AO ends up also falling, the SE is likely going to also need the PNA to rise (better Pacific than currently). So far, modeling is hardly budging there.

I don't recall bookend winters having huge sleet storms at the end, but I have seen some cold/cool Aprils and they are wonderful.  Kind of like sticking a thumb in the eye of summer and saying back off.  Sure it's only slows the inevitable heat, but it's so so satisfying to defy summer with a cold/cool spring.  Of course, my point forecast has an 81 in it, lol. My trees are budding, I have a cherry in full bloom, and a wasp was dive bombing the dining room light the other night, so there's that. Either way I'm pulling for you to pull another Sav snow out of your hat.

[tarheelwx]

My gut tells me that unless we get a positive PNA, we’re not going to get significant cold weather - significant being cold enough to deliver a good winter storm.  I think we could have a decent stretch of be low normal temps, but just a bit below normal in March isn’t the same as  wing a bit below normal in January or the first half is February.  Having said that, I’m holding out hop until March 15th. 
TW

[PackGrad05]

EPS seems to be trying to sniff something out around the beginning of March.  GEFS starting to bite as well.  

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, tarheelwx said:

My gut tells me that unless we get a positive PNA, we’re not going to get significant cold weather - significant being cold enough to deliver a good winter storm.  I think we could have a decent stretch of be low normal temps, but just a bit below normal in March isn’t the same as  wing a bit below normal in January or the first half is February.  Having said that, I’m holding out hop until March 15th. 
TW

Keep in mind that the historically cold and winter storm filled March of 1960 had a PNA of -0.4! But it obviously would be best to have a higher PNA, which could still occur, plus March of 1960 was an extreme anomaly.

[eyewall]

This is the winter from hell. We are going to be in the mid 80's on Thursday.

[franklin NCwx]

58 minutes ago, eyewall said:

This is the winter from hell. We are going to be in the mid 80's on Thursday.

That's 100xs better than 30s and rain

[NorthHillsWx]

Mid 80’s this week and folks are still trying to sniff out snow. It’s over folks, not that it ever even began 

[gman]

4 hours ago, eyewall said:

This is the winter from hell. We are going to be in the mid 80's on Thursday.

It’s been a cold, windy and wet winter. The forecast for Thursday sounds like heaven to me. Bring it on! 

[StantonParkHoya]

6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Mid 80’s this week and folks are still trying to sniff out snow. It’s over folks, not that it ever even began 

Exactly. Wish people would move on.

[AppalachianWedge]

Exactly. Wish people would move on.

Do any of you ever think that some folks may like to read weather related comments in this thread, as opposed to negativity like you and several others? I can tell you this much. The GeorgiaWX person puts a whole hell of a lot more thought into his posts than you.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[Upstate Tiger]

12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Exactly. Wish people would move on.

Anecdotally, the first 80 degree plus day seems to be the rubicon whereby we never see snow afterword.  

Haven’t taken time to research, but I’m willing to bet the occurrences are very very rare.  

Seem to recall the week before Superstorm 93, it approached 80.

Seems like we had some warm days in March of 83 but don’t recall if we ever hit 80. 

[TugHillMatt]

9 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

That's 100xs better than 30s and rain

Yeah, that's been our winter up here. 

[Upstate Tiger]

A quick check of GSP climate data reveals no significant snow after an 80+ degree max daily temp.  
 

A review of the 3 major March storms that I recall, 1980, 1983 and 1993… 1980 first 80+ 4/23/89: 1983 first 80+ 4/27/83: 1993 first 80+ 5/6/93. 

Historically, hitting the 80 degree mark is the death knell for SE snowstorms.  
 

Interestingly, Jan 99 had an 80 degree day.  We did have a minor event later in the season. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

A quick check of GSP climate data reveals no significant snow after an 80+ degree max daily temp.  
 

A review of the 3 major March storms that I recall, 1980, 1983 and 1993… 1980 first 80+ 4/23/89: 1983 first 80+ 4/27/83: 1993 first 80+ 5/6/93. 

Historically, hitting the 80 degree mark is the death knell for SE snowstorms.  
 

Interestingly, Jan 99 had an 80 degree day.  We did have a minor event later in the season. 

- The closest I could find for GSP to something big is a 79 two days before the 5.1" of 2/26/1982.

- But RDU had 6" on 2/18/1989, which was 15 days after an 83 

- RDU came very close with 79s three times before other biggies: 7" on 3/24/1983 nine days after, 11.1" on 3/1-2/1980 7-8 days after, and 8" on 3/10/1934 three days after.

- ATL: couldn't find 80 prior to a big one but they had 80 nine days before a small one (0.7" of 2/23/1989).

- ATL: came very close with 79 seven days prior to 2.7" of 3/2/1980.

[NorthHillsWx]

RAH now has my forecast high up to 89 degrees for Thursday. Not only would this shatter the daily record high, but also the highest temp EVER recorded for RDU for the entire month (84). If we broke the record high for the month by 5 degrees,  this would have to be one of the most dramatic smashing of a monthly temp record ever for the site.

Also, with no mitigating factors for a record high temp event in central NC Thursday, another very important record may be in jeopardy: first 90 degree day. The earliest first 90 degree temp at RDU is March 12. This would shatter that record set in 1990.

Seriously impressive heat for mid-late February coming this week in a historic early season heat wave

[Tacoma]

Well maybe all this warmth is telling us something, I remember the week before the blizzard of 93 wearing shorts that whole week and could not believe the snow and cold from that storm.  Maybe there's something to getting this warm this time of year and a nice snow storm.  I'm not giving up just yet.  Maybe come April I will let it go but not till then.  

 

[StantonParkHoya]

7.5 days left of met winter