olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, msuwx said: Folks complaining about the overnight runs must not have been paying attention this winter. At least it's something. I agree! Not intending to be negative (should have drank my coffee before posting). Just trying to keep in perspective that we are still, even with positive trends more likely to miss on significant accumulations that cash in. But this is by far the best shot we've had this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 06z GFS & GEFS have a significant Winter Storm for SC, VA & NC Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk I found it very interesting that Blacksburg didn’t even mention it whatsoever in their AFD. The word light snow was loosely mentioned Saturday night. Rather surprising there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 GSP this morning .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 325 am EST Wednesday: ***Potential increasing for significant wintry precip across the mountains over the weekend.*** A very active pattern will continue for much of the extended period over the Southeast, as a series of short wave troughs/upper lows is expected to impact the region. Global model guidance is converging toward a strong consensus regarding the first of these over the weekend, as an already-potent...and still intensifying...upper low will likely be centered over the lower Miss Valley at the start of the period, and is expected to sweep across the Deep South through the end of the weekend. Resultant coastal cyclogenesis will likely bring another round of precip near...and quite possibly into the CWA from late Saturday through early Sunday. The devil will be in the details re: p-type...and those details are far from clear at this point...with the presence of any cold air available to interact with frontogenetical forcing and deformation zone depending upon the cyclone track and the cyclone`s intensity/ability to crank up the cold advection to its west. Based upon the latest guidance, this looks to be a rain/snow scenario for the time being, and we will continue to side with climatology and a ballpark consensus of thermodynamic profiles to keep any snow mention confined to the mountains...and primarily above 3000` or so at that. However, there remains plenty of time for this forecast to go sideways in either direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 Oh Canada ICON 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 fwiw...Dr No has the low a touch stronger and a touch south than 0z at hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 Euro 06z at 90 0Z at 96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Overnight runs aren't necessarily all that great. Yes, models are currently converging towards an ideal track and evolution of The ULL. But not only is this very much subject to change, but the Euro shows, how even a pretty good outcome, which is like, 90% of the way to the GFS, just doesn't get the job done. Also the 0Z GFS tracked like 50 miles more inland which pushes the piedmont out of the good banding. 50 miles further east and you get something more like the Euro. It's delicate to say the least and we have at least 48 hours before we can really know what's going to happen. Unfortunately with an ULL setup that’s just how this is going to be! You need to be just west of the low which is vertically stacked and where the banding sets up. You also need a stronger low. Euro has progressively trended towards a more GFS and there is very little wiggle room here as there is no cold air availability other than what the storm has produced. That being said, nothing about the overnight runs trended worse. Euro actually trended better. The way I see it, someone is getting snow from this but where that is is tbd and going to change on modeling every run until it begins. That’s just the nature of this type of system but it’s a fun one to track with big upside for a small area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 00Z EPS still has a decent chance, but not as good as yesterday's 12Z run. Does anyone know how to view the 06Z EPS on weathermodels.com? I have premium. 06Z GEFS trended in the right direction also and shows a greater chance. Neither is a slam dunk of course... at least it is something to track for once. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 50 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: 00Z EPS still has a decent chance, but not as good as yesterday's 12Z run. Does anyone know how to view the 06Z EPS on weathermodels.com? I have premium. 06Z GEFS trended in the right direction also and shows a greater chance. Neither is a slam dunk of course... at least it is something to track for once. Running now. Looks like an improvement to me (further south, stronger ULL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said: Euro 06z at 90 0Z at 96 6Z Euro looks just slower to move the ULL east than 0Z, which is what LWX was saying in their recent AFD: To start, the long term forecast is riddled with uncertainties at this point regarding the progression of a strong upper-low. Recent runs of global guidance seem to be coming to some sort of agreement on the evolution of a strong trough diving out of the central CONUS into the southeast on Saturday. This system will likely cut off from the upper jet over the southeastern CONUS. From there, that is where things are a bit fuzzy. A surface low will develop to our south along the cold front that pushed through on Friday. The upper low track will be the key factor in how things evolve from here, as these are very tricky to nail down even a few days out, let alone five. That being said, the guidance has actually been trending later on this suite, bringing precip in more towards Sunday. This goes to show the uncertainty with forecasting cutoff lows in the long term. The shortwave to watch has actually entered the Pacific Northwest, so will be interesting to see if there is any sort of swing in the guidance as we get some balloon data today. There is still a real possibility that this system even slides by mostly to our south, but we will see what we can get out of the latest guidance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 A little more inland than we'd like, but not bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 can i just say .... this, overnight someone will receive LIFE ALTERING snow from the NAM and i will be quicker to take a screenshot than everyone for Bronny Babys shot last night......my point im just happy to be here at 5 days and in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 This is looking more like an I-77 special right now and a heartbreaker for RDU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 This seems thread-worthy at this point with all guidance buying into something for somewhere in the forum 4 days out. Not sure who dares start it though… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 12z NAM closed low at 57 over eastern OK/ western AR. Looks less progressive than 6z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, eyewall said: This is looking more like an I-77 special right now and a heartbreaker for RDU. Agreed but no one can write it off yet either from the upstate through the piedmont and ULL are best known for surprises. I really think the upstate is more in play than a lot of modeling has shown to this point. For points east it really is going to depend on SLP track and strength and be an absolute thread the needle type of deal but it certainly will be entertaining to track bc I don’t think this will be resolved until the event starts. I’ve never known one of these setups to be resolved with any lead time, this will be no different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: This seems thread-worthy at this point with all guidance buying into something for somewhere in the forum 4 days out. Not sure who dares start it though… @Upstate Tiger posted the first map of this threat. He can take it home? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Everyone from GA to NC will have to look at snow totals fast as temps climb quick as it exits stage right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: @Upstate Tiger posted the first map of this threat. He can take it home? Sure! After all, this winter storm is looking more probable than us beating the Heels in Chapel Hill this weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, HWY316wx said: Everyone from GA to NC will have to look at snow totals fast as temps climb quick as it exits stage right. True, but I remember the Monday after the great Sunday President's Day Blizzard of 1979, temps climbed to 46 the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Sure! After all, this winter storm is looking more probable than us beating the Heels in Chapel Hill this weekend. Very unlikely, my Heels look horrible. Definitely not the team they were last year.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 12z NAM closed low at 57 over eastern OK/ western AR. Looks less progressive than 6z for sure. Is this good or not?Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 It’s late in the range but the NAM looked primed to go boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Very unlikely, my Heels look horrible. Definitely not the team they were last year. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Battle of the losing streaks in chapel hill… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Is this good or not? Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Here is NAM at 84. That would be a good thing for our areas in my opinion. Big ole bowling ball as you can see with moisture rapidly pooling in the Carolinas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 There's also some type of meso high (about 1027-1028 sliding through OH into NYS around the end of the run..) that can never hurt and based on surface reflection, you can see snow developing as the run finishes over the western NC mountains. Wherever this thing ends up traversing it's going to pack a nice punch of heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 OK. Added thread. Maybe Buckeye or someone can pin it... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Someone getting NAMd for sure this evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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