SnowDawg Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 19 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: Marginal temp event, probably mountain snow. Boundary temps are largely insignificant in a ULL setup. Pretty much the entire SE is at play. ULL track and intensity determines where snow falls. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 While we're waiting on the 0Z runs for the potential Feb 12th snow, I'm going to go back to the much longer range in this post, specifically related to the upcoming SSW. Check out the tweet below, which is a reason to closely follow Arctic stratospheric progs of the EPS (including weeklies), GEFS, and others. The strat, after a SSW, is more predictable than the upper tropospheric pattern starting with day 5 and is much more predictable by day 15 in the Arctic. Note the lighter colors (lower correlation) in the lower levels meaning more difficulty. From this, one can infer that the models tend to have a very hard time predicting AO/NAO indices and other possible downward reflections into the Arctic troposphere after an SSW, despite the SSW, itself, being highly predictable. Look at day 23, for example. Whereas the strat above 100 mb still has an impressive anomaly correlation of 0.6 to 0.8, the upper troposphere (300 mb) has already plunged to under 0.2! So, keep this in mind as regards the extended models getting a good handle on where our sensible wx may go late this month. It is very highly unpredictable at this point in time even though the strat is much more predictable. So, expect a lot of change on the models as we get closer. From the same Twitter thread: "... so even though the winter stratosphere is relatively predictable, the models can't effectively translate that skill down to the surface. Nevertheless, the *potential* predictability linked to the stratosphere is good reason for following these forecasts closely." Or put another way by Dr. Simon Lee: "The stratosphere can be extremely predictable -- particularly after SSWs -- but both model deficiencies *and* unrelated tropospheric noise means this doesn't perfectly translate to tropospheric skill." 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Icon says what storm. Well, that didn't last long. This season has been horrible along the east coast in general. Weird winter season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Icon says what storm. Well, that didn't last long. This season has been horrible along the east coast in general. Weird winter season. Don't sleet on my parade, man. This winter has been devastating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 0z GFS keeping the dream alive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 0z GFS shows 6-8" of Snow here with 1/2" of ice lolSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 0z GFS a big hit for NW piedmont, SW VA and mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 clown map has shifted a pinch south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Canadian solid hit for mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, JoshM said: clown map has shifted a pinch south Someone must’ve whispered the word “climo” and then “I-85” into the GFS’s ear before this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 0z GFS and CMC both with solid hits. Hopefully the Euro followsSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z GFS and CMC both with solid hits. Hopefully the Euro follows Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk You can throw the ICON in there for the same areas, if you dare speak of the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 UK is too warm even mountains but its close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 GFS really presses the cold mid month around the 17th. Much colder look than last run, more in line with the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Euro isn't going to be it. Just too warm and the low isn't deep enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 It tries but its incredibly marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I don't buy the snowmaps the Euro spit out. Temps are upper 30s for many. Would have to be some March, 2009 rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I don't buy the snowmaps the Euro spit out. Temps are upper 30s for many. Would have to be some March, 2009 rates. Probably is under that bowling ball ULL... They generate their own cold air so you can not go by the surface temps shownSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, Sandstorm94 said: Probably is under that bowling ball ULL... They generate their own cold air so you can not go by the surface temps shown Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk I'm aware but the upper low has to be closed and quite strong for it to puke snow with this airmass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I'm aware but the upper low has to be closed and quite strong for it to puke snow with this airmass Fact of the matter is all guidence up to now caved to the court jester... Someone here or in the MA is gonna scoreSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Fact of the matter is all guidence up to now caved to the court jester... Someone here or in the MA is gonna score Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Mountains of NW NC to SW VA are in good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Another Euro run, another positive trend from that model. Agree, mountains, NE piedmont, SW VA all seem to be in good spots for snow from this but it still has legs anywhere from the upstate to the MA and points east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Latest GFS is a big snow for most of NC and deep into SC. Weenie run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 And your clown map... *drum roll* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Overnight runs aren't necessarily all that great. Yes, models are currently converging towards an ideal track and evolution of The ULL. But not only is this very much subject to change, but the Euro shows, how even a pretty good outcome, which is like, 90% of the way to the GFS, just doesn't get the job done. Also the 0Z GFS tracked like 50 miles more inland which pushes the piedmont out of the good banding. 50 miles further east and you get something more like the Euro. It's delicate to say the least and we have at least 48 hours before we can really know what's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Folks complaining about the overnight runs must not have been paying attention this winter. At least it's something. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 14 minutes ago, msuwx said: Folks complaining about the overnight runs must not have been paying attention this winter. At least it's something. Yea really don’t have a single complaint considering I myself haven’t seen accumulating snowfall for freakin ever. Worst case scenario favored climo spots score. Best case the ULL bowling ball allows a whole bunch to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 06z GFS & GEFS have a significant Winter Storm for SC, VA & NCSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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