Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

19 hours ago, Grayman said:

If you weenies would have jumped early like I did you would not be in so much pain. After Dec bust I stopped listened to all the gurus about pattern change blah blah blah and I cliff dove. Winter is over and has been . 

Good, then why are you still here trolling everybody else? I don't want to see any posts from you when there is a valid threat. Also, I don't appreciate being called a weenie for remembering that it's still January...... SMH.

[SnowDawg]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z UKMET has a bigger deal than other models in parts of N GA and NW SC Sunday morning. At Athens, GA, qpf is ~1/2" and temps are near 32. Thus on the border of 1/2" of ZR, which would be close to a scattered power outage situation. Keep in mind that wedged cold air is often underdone and thus colder as well as a larger area of sub 32 wouldn't be a surprise. Clayton, GA is 31-32 and gets ~.15, which may be sleet based on 850's near +3 C:

Have been hoping to see things trend towards the 0z gfs solution from the 29th. The LP formed much quicker over southern GA instead of out over the Atlantic. This aided the wedge and the heavier precip helped lock in some top down cooling as well.  Was all snow and sleet from the N GA mtns up the chain, and sleet and ZR south and east of there in the CAD region. A couple ensemble members have held onto this idea every run, but for now remains a longshot. 

[SnowDawg]

42 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Good, then why are you still here trolling everybody else? I don't want to see any posts from you when there is a valid threat. Also, I don't appreciate being called a weenie for remembering that it's still January...... SMH.

Couldn't have said it better. I enjoy tracking the weather, so I'm gonna track every single threat big or small until it no longer becomes a threat or we get lucky and score one. Burying ones head in the sand for fear of being disappointed seems like much more of a weenie move to me.

[Coach McGuirk]

Snowless winters bring out the worst in us.

[KChuck]

1 hour ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Snowless winters bring out the worst in us.

[PantherJustin]

Good, then why are you still here trolling everybody else? I don't want to see any posts from you when there is a valid threat. Also, I don't appreciate being called a weenie for remembering that it's still January...... SMH.

Yea not being an Ass Gray, but it’s like you Copy n Paste the same whining Comment ANYTIME there’s even something to remotely even type about in here…. Plus man not being mean, but even in a good winter you’re in a Bad Spot Climo wise that’s just the way it is, it sucks but none of us can control the weather …. If we could it wouldn’t be any fun imo


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[GaWx]

4 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

Have been hoping to see things trend towards the 0z gfs solution from the 29th. The LP formed much quicker over southern GA instead of out over the Atlantic. This aided the wedge and the heavier precip helped lock in some top down cooling as well.  Was all snow and sleet from the N GA mtns up the chain, and sleet and ZR south and east of there in the CAD region. A couple ensemble members have held onto this idea every run, but for now remains a longshot. 

 The UKMET, which had as much as 0.5" of ZR in parts of N GA/NW SC on Sunday on the 12Z run associated with a weak NE GOM surface low, has on the new (0Z) run no surface low due to a much weaker wave at H5. The result is much less qpf in GA/SC (under 0.1"), warmer temperatures, and no wintry precip.

[SnowDawg]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The UKMET, which had as much as 0.5" of ZR in parts of N GA/NW SC on Sunday on the 12Z run associated with a weak NE GOM surface low, has on the new (0Z) run no surface low due to a much weaker wave at H5. The result is much less qpf in GA/SC (under 0.1"), warmer temperatures, and no wintry precip.

Has ultimately been the trend on most guidance the last day or so. Either weak missed phase or phase too late with the low popping 2-400 miles too far east. Has been a longshot for anything more than nuisance ice from the beginning though realistically. Shame considering the usual culprits from this winter (SE Ridge/Cutting track) aren't to blame for this likely miss.

[JoshM]

Since wintry wx seems to be a no go, let's talk about something else, all the foggy nights we've had! I've never seen so many Dense Fog Advisories this close together. Seems like every other night there's some sort of fog.

[franklin NCwx]

1 hour ago, JoshM said:

Since wintry wx seems to be a no go, let's talk about something else, all the foggy nights we've had! I've never seen so many Dense Fog Advisories this close together. Seems like every other night there's some sort of fog.

Live in the southern mtns. You will get a lifetime of rain and fog in just a couple years.

[strongwxnc]

Since wintry wx seems to be a no go, let's talk about something else, all the foggy nights we've had! I've never seen so many Dense Fog Advisories this close together. Seems like every other night there's some sort of fog.

The fog has been absolutely terrible the past couple of months. Even down into the foothills. It’s a soup most mornings.


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[Jmoon]

7 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

The fog has been absolutely terrible the past couple of months. Even down into the foothills. It’s a soup most mornings.


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Yeah the fog has been bad the past couple of months in the foothills. Unless there's a miracle way down the road it looks like we could very well get blanked this winter in the southern foothills. It will be only my second winter in Rutherford county since starting in 1981-82 in the last 41 years not to record at least a trace of snow, sleet, freezing rain or anything in the frozen department. The only other time I got blanked was in the horrible winter of 2011-12. This winter would and probably will be the second snowless in the last 41 years. If it wasn't for that Christmas cold snap I would say this winter would be worse than 2011-12 with all the cold rainy days. I just don't know what to expect down the road later in February or March except rain and more rain and then some more rain.

[WiseWeather]

Yeah the fog has been bad the past couple of months in the foothills. Unless there's a miracle way down the road it looks like we could very well get blanked this winter in the southern foothills. It will be only my second winter in Rutherford county since starting in 1981-82 in the last 41 years not to record at least a trace of snow, sleet, freezing rain or anything in the frozen department. The only other time I got blanked was in the horrible winter of 2011-12. This winter would and probably will be the second snowless in the last 41 years. If it wasn't for that Christmas cold snap I would say this winter would be worse than 2011-12 with all the cold rainy days. I just don't know what to expect down the road later in February or March except rain and more rain and then some more rain.

Depression… and more fog. 100% can guarantee more fog.


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[wxslug]

15 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Good, then why are you still here trolling everybody else? I don't want to see any posts from you when there is a valid threat. Also, I don't appreciate being called a weenie for remembering that it's still January...... SMH.

Exactly.  Those type comments add absolutely nothing of benefit to the thread. I rarely post here and I come here to learn as much as I can, so to see dickish comments like he made are discouraging.

Anyway, there's my (likely) one post of the year.  Carry on, fine people.

[GaWx]

 Recent GEFS/GEPS/GFS runs are suggesting the possibility of a rewarming Arctic strat. toward midmonth along with another drop in the 60N winds.

 Link to follow the Arctic strat temps/60N winds:

 https://stratobserve.com/ens_ts_diags

 

 This doesn't mean I'm forecasting another SSW. (The most recent SSW ended up being "minor".) This is just something I'm following. If a significant rewarming/drop in 60N winds actually looks like it is going to occur, I'd expect to be discussing this more and more down the road.

[GaWx]

 There's increasing model support for a transient cold shot into the SE ~2/11. Let's see how this evolves.

[olafminesaw]

I think there's a chance of a little back end snow with the Friday system. A long shot perhaps, but this is one of those cases where the coastal plain is just as likely (or even more likely) to see flakes as the Piedmont. Actually the storm track is pretty ideal, the cold just arrives too late. So, some positive trends could make things a little interesting. Need to root for the development of a stronger LP as it tracks across the gulf states.

 

Yes I'm desperate 

[eyewall]

The SER is relentless and I am becoming increasingly confident RDU will zero out this year.

[GaWx]

36 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The SER is relentless and I am becoming increasingly confident RDU will zero out this year.

 If RDU's total were to remain at a T, it would be the first time that low since 2005-6 for those who didn't know.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Recent GEFS/GEPS/GFS runs are suggesting the possibility of a rewarming Arctic strat. toward midmonth along with another drop in the 60N winds.

 Link to follow the Arctic strat temps/60N winds:

 https://stratobserve.com/ens_ts_diags

 

 This doesn't mean I'm forecasting another SSW. (The most recent SSW ended up being "minor".) This is just something I'm following. If a significant rewarming/drop in 60N winds actually looks like it is going to occur, I'd expect to be discussing this more and more down the road.

 Fwiw, the 18Z GFS, like the 0Z, has what may be a real live major SSW on it late in the run fwiw. For those curious, check out the N Hemispheric maps at 10 mb late in the 18Z/0Z GFS runs to show what I'm seeing. They show a significantly displaced SPV along with massive Arctic strat warming.  These are both bordering on a 60N wind direction reversal from W to E, especially the 18Z.

[Upstate Tiger]

58 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Fwiw, the 18Z GFS, like the 0Z, has what may be a real live major SSW on it late in the run fwiw. For those curious, check out the N Hemispheric maps at 10 mb late in the 18Z/0Z GFS runs to show what I'm seeing. They show a significantly displaced SPV along with massive Arctic strat warming.  These are both bordering on a 60N wind direction reversal from W to E, especially the 18Z.

I swore this winter if I caught myself relying on SSW, I’d throw in the towel but here I am!

GW is that the reason we’re seeing those crazy HP readings in Canada on the GFS starting mid-month?  I’m seeing highest I’ve seen all winter. 

[CaryWx]

25 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I swore this winter if I caught myself relying on SSW, I’d throw in the towel but here I am!

GW is that the reason we’re seeing those crazy HP readings in Canada on the GFS starting mid-month?  I’m seeing highest I’ve seen all winter. 

That SSW will be too late I'm afraid

[KChuck]

On 1/30/2023 at 12:54 PM, SnowDawg said:

It'd be a real shame to finally get a real workable solution for a big portion of this forum only for the trough to end up too far east so the storm gets going too late. 

 

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, CaryWx said:

That SSW will be too late I'm afraid

 I agree to some extent since any cooling effects from a possible major SSW in mid Feb could easily extend into mid to late March when normals are a good bit higher. However, there'd still be hopes for a colder late Feb into early March. 
 

 First, looking at non-El Nino years with a SSW in mid-Feb:

 Consider the cold that followed the 2/17/2002 SSW, which was 2/22-3/6. Also, the 2/11/2001 and 2/12/2018 SSWs had cold follow 3/5-4/3 and 3/3-3/15, respectively. So, there's some early March cold included with those last two.

  Looking a bit away from mid Feb:

 Late Feb:  2/22/1979 and 2/22/2008, I couldn't find any cold dominated period of note. But 2/21/1989 had cold dominate 2/23-3/9.

Early Feb: 2/6/1981 had cold dominate 3/6-25.

 So, in summary, this all tells me that if there's a major SSW, potential cold could come in as early as the last week of Feb. The last week of Feb and first few days of March are still pretty cold on average (within only 5-6 of the coldest week in January) and are also within the climo active period for SE wintry.

 By the way, the 0Z GFS is another run with an impressive displacement of the 10 mb SPV!

[JoshM]

Hey... at least some of us can get NAM'd!

 

 

[olafminesaw]

Hey, look, the perfect storm track!

And....cold rain

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Hey, look, the perfect storm track!

And....cold rain

This is comical. This should be a major winter storm, but I don’t even know if it’s possible anymore 

[NorthHillsWx]

Interesting to see some CAMS bringing in some snow for central and eastern NC before the precip finally exits Friday. Difference is timing between them and the Euro solution, which keeps precip further south and doesn’t hold onto it long enough for the cold air to catch up. Regardless, would likely be only mood flakes if anything frozen fell, but I’d take anything at this point after this slog of rain and fog we’re stuck in.

[olafminesaw]

 

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Interesting to see some CAMS bringing in some snow for central and eastern NC before the precip finally exits Friday. Difference is timing between them and the Euro solution, which keeps precip further south and doesn’t hold onto it long enough for the cold air to catch up. Regardless, would likely be only mood flakes if anything frozen fell, but I’d take anything at this point after this slog of rain and fog we’re stuck in.

12z cams:

 

[greendave]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Hey, look, the perfect storm track!

And....cold rain