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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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For this winters standards, that’s a nuking of central NC by the 18z GFS. Unfortunately the way this year has gone, I would say we have a better shot of trying to gamble on a fart with the stomach bug than actually gambling on this evolution coming to fruition. I hope I’m wrong but it’s either going to suppress significantly or cut like hell.. no in-between it seems like. Suppression may make some happy in here in all honesty so we’ll see what happens. 

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I feel like not much has changed over the past 24 hrs or so of models, gotta keep things in perspective. Something to watch, is it seems like although the cold and moisture are going to link up somewhere, the cold at the surface isn't nearly looking as impressive as many model runs yesterday. Just something to watch in terms of trends. Pretty common to see air masses moderate around these parts until not even a thread the needle storm track gets the job done.

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Looking like a little, dare I say, consensus forming on the models inside 7 days for a wintry event nearby? Obviously it’s trended a little north but this is as close as we’ve been this year to a teachable event so I guess we’ll take what we can get. At least it seems to be trending away from a cutter. Need TPV displacement just a little to the south for more of the forum to get in but this looks like the type of moderate event that could work in this sh*t pattern 

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No real strong CAD like we were seeing in some model runs. But a higher chance of all snow after the frontal passage. I worry in this sort of setup though, that surface temps will be warm and precip rates unimpressive. Usually that's a bad combo. But probably the best chance since the December PV flop.

Chance of seeing flakes : 65%

A coating + : 35%

1"+ : 15%

 

 

 

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Just now, olafminesaw said:

Yeah...the issue with the runs so far this morning is the storm has become more progressive, which doesn't allow the cold to move into place. No shocker really 

Yep. And that makes the most sense in this pattern. CMC and Euro backing the energy in the SW and holding it into a consolidated system never made sense to me. These progressive slider systems are a pain to forecast and unless you get some last minute coastal development, are usually gone before they ever really arrived. We have scored on these occasionally, I think our only snow in 2020-21 winter came from a similar mode

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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yep. And that makes the most sense in this pattern. CMC and Euro backing the energy in the SW and holding it into a consolidated system never made sense to me. These progressive slider systems are a pain to forecast and unless you get some last minute coastal development, are usually gone before they ever really arrived. We have scored on these occasionally, I think our only snow in 2020-21 winter came from a similar mode

It’s time to cliff dive my man. Winter is OVER. All weenies report to the cliff for a group dive. Man this winter killed me 

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37 minutes ago, Grayman said:

It’s time to cliff dive my man. Winter is OVER. All weenies report to the cliff for a group dive. Man this winter killed me 

 I promise you that you'll survive. I've seen snow only once (for ~two hours) in over 7 years and was frankly lucky to see that. I'm alive and well! What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. I still enjoy winter a lot more than any other season because of the larger variability as well as higher % of lower dewpoint days making it more ideal for me for outdoors. And I can always dream of seeing another miracle snow whether it be this winter or some winter down the road.

 Meanwhile, I'm still hoping for another cold period later in Feb. As a matter of fact, La Niña/cold ENSO is (perhaps surprisingly) more conducive in Feb/March to an extreme cold shot into the SE than warm ENSO despite being warmer overall than El Nino per recent research I did going back to 1800s. I may share this later. A bit counterintuitive imo.

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What stinks even more about this setup and why we’ve had some models showing potential is that the cold air IS there we just have no mechanism to get it down in time east of the mountains. On modeling it’s showing temps as low as the -20’s in parts of the northeast the day the storm system will be impacting us. Just imagine if we had a stronger low or a HP to tap some into of that… Just makes this setup that much more frustrating but also why so many have said from the start timing is everything here. We look like we’re getting the storm track we want Just need to find some mechanism to time it with the cold, something we’ve seen in some runs. Ensembles are not on our side either, showing the chance of that happening is still an outlier, but it cannot be dismissed yet. I’ll take a weak slider vs an amped system in this pattern anyday though bc it means we’re still in the game and not dealing with another cutter which we’d certainly get if this storm consolidated further west like most modeling was hinting at a few days ago. Think it was yesterday the Canadian too some areas from ice to 70’s in 24 hours 

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