Grayman Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 32 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: I'd be interested to see how far the storm at the end could push the boundary. For whatever it's worth it’s this 3rd through the 7th or so period that the ensembles are at least trying to signal some overunning fun. I know it's day 10 plus so what's the use, but I guess we've got to talk about something lol. 11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 18z GFS says lights out for the piedmont with back to back ice storms Yep. I saw that. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 The good thing is both the GEFS and EPS show "some" snow for central NC in the first week of Feb time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 9 hours ago, GaWx said: If you were hoping for a Euro run with implications for cold to dominate the SE in early Feb, the just out 12Z isn't the run for you as the SE ridge holds the cold back. Prior runs looked better, especially yesterday's 12Z. And this isn't a surprise based on the frequent overzealousness of models bringing cold to the SE this winter. But then again, there's the usual high uncertainties with operational runs out past a week or so. So, take with a grain as it is still early. The 0Z Euro is the opposite of the prior run as noted above and instead the freezer door is open late deep down into the SE! But as always, take with a huge grain that far out and we'll see what the next few runs show as well as the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 This is such a sh*t show pattern it’s not even funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: This is such a sh*t show pattern it’s not even funny It is horrible. I am moving on to severe season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Snow followed by epic ice storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 At this range I'll take my chances on this look with a 50/50 low and a 1040 high and just assume the GFS is wrong about the gulf low just waiting around until it can cut west. At this point it's nice just to have something at least minimally interesting to follow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: At this range I'll take my chances on this look with a 50/50 low and a 1040 high and just assume the GFS is wrong about the gulf low just waiting around until it can cut west. At this point it's nice just to have something at least minimally interesting to follow. Still, no support from the ensembles. We have, after all seen the wild swings of the OP (as is to be expected at this range.) It seems like a plausible enough outcome nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: At this range I'll take my chances on this look with a 50/50 low and a 1040 high and just assume the GFS is wrong about the gulf low just waiting around until it can cut west. At this point it's nice just to have something at least minimally interesting to follow. Yep. Will be interesting to see how Euro handles this. CMC is further south and thus more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Time frame from the 2nd-4th still looks good for Snow/ICE PotentialSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 With the way things have gone, and the look of this possible storm, it screams more ice than Snow but plenty of time to watch. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 12z GEFS also has the threat around the same time. The 12z OP taken verbatim would be a blister of an ice storm, temps in the mid to upper 20s.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Before the threat of frozen precip can arrive, there is an increasing threat of flooding, or at least a long duration stretch of soggy weather 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Euro is bringing the hammer at day 7,polar vortex dropping into the upper midwest with strong ridging on the west coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Got to run to a meeting 's. Euro is cold and suppressed. Right where we want it at 7 days LOL! Let me know how rest of run goes... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 It brings cold but its quick to moderate and by day 10 most of the cold has retreated back to Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Euro- wet frontal boundary, with back end flurry potential, followed by deep cold and suppression (snow down to FL panhandle). Basically the low runs out ahead of the HP, never allowing a wave to run along the boundary GFS- a HP further east, and a stronger wave, mean the two duke it out. Ultimately the LP wins, cutting north, but not before a long duration frozen mess takes place, due to a stalled boundary. Canadian - similar to the Euro, but perhaps a step towards the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 22 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Before the threat of frozen precip can arrive, there is an increasing threat of flooding, or at least a long duration stretch of soggy weather With the way it’s been and storms continuing to cut we end up with a lot of rain but nowhere near the modeled amounts just a lot of 0.5” - 1” rains frequently enough to keep everything soaked but no flooding, thankfully. Mountains obviously are seeing more but these giant modeled amounts east of there you can usually cut 3/4 out to get the actual rainfall totals with systems that end up west of the mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Think that was the 1st Euro run that dropped the polar vortex into the USA,GFS has already had a few. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Euro gets cold but *extremely* transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Geez... don't look at the Euro control for the same time period we are talking about.... lol to bad it ain't hardly ever righrSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 46 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Geez... don't look at the Euro control for the same time period we are talking about.... lol to bad it ain't hardly ever righr Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Who knows. I think all solutions are still on the table. European has cold chasing rain so that’s probably the most likely scenario but we could get a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 18z GFS says SER wins out and no one is even close to frozen/freezing precip lol. Absolute worst pattern to be in, cold tempting us nearby but a SER just making sure we get no legitimate threats so we end up with rain after rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Well, following that GFS run.... Y'all think we finally actually kick this La Niña to the curb next winter? Or are we stuck in this hellscape of a pattern forever lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 When was the last time we had 4 Ninas in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 31 minutes ago, CaryWx said: When was the last time we had 4 Ninas in a row? As far as I know 4 years is unprecedented in modern times. I know the forecast right now is for a rapid flip to neutral by late spring and El niño by the end of the summer/early fall. Just feels tough to have much faith in predictions the way things have been going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: 18z GFS says SER wins out and no one is even close to frozen/freezing precip lol. Absolute worst pattern to be in, cold tempting us nearby but a SER just making sure we get no legitimate threats so we end up with rain after rain Good thing it's Ensembles disagree with the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 18z is an absolute clinic on how to flex the SER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 20 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 18z is an absolute clinic on how to flex the SER Well, the OP run anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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