Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

[CaryWx]

 

[GaWx]

26 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

SSW not looking to be major I'm hearing.

 Indeed, that's what the model consensus has been showing for several days now with the 60N wind dropping from 50 m/s now to ~10 on 1/28-29. (See model consensus forecast image below.) It would need to get to below 0 to be called "major" as I understand it. That's looking very unlikely now since the models have hardly budged. But this still begs this question: With a drop-off of the winds of 80%, would that be close enough to allow for any potential cooling effects on the SE US to possibly be somewhat similar to what a "major" SSW would tend to cause, especially considering that the Arctic warming looks to be very strong? I mean if it doesn't get all the way to 0, why would that totally cancel out the potential effects?

[Grayman]

All these fancy words you guys use and analogs and I can be right 99 percent of time just saying you’re not going to see snow in The Southeast which is what we all are looking for.  The weenies have been crushed hence the lack of post on here. I’m a recovering weenie that enjoys cliff diving and severe storms in winter . Mods delete this if it needs to be posted in the sanitarium thread. Lol 

[Shack]

16 hours ago, dsaur said:

There has been a signal for the first week of Feb for a while.  What does climo say for that period, Mr. Abacus? Going from 8.4 in Dec to 70's in Jan, has me expecting something equally as anomalous soon....like 100 year sleet storm, lol.

Tony ! Where you been? 

I'm with ya' on the 100 year sleet storm.  Disappointed in our immediate outlook, though, for anything of the such as the cold looks allergic to our latitude.  Maybe the SSW will deliver us a Valentines Day sledding event.

Off topic, but how'd you fare in last weeks breezy conditions around Griffin?  I came through on Saturday and whoa, what a mess !

 

[NorthHillsWx]

First week of February alternating between 70 degree torches and snow and ice storms depending on which model and run you want to look at. Should be interesting at least 

[Coach McGuirk]

18z GFS back in the ballgame for Feb 3.

[olafminesaw]

13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

First week of February alternating between 70 degree torches and snow and ice storms depending on which model and run you want to look at. Should be interesting at least 

Seriously, lol 

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS has some of the coldest air I’ve ever seen modeled for my area around February 5

[Grayman]

18z Gfs says welcome back weather weenies. 

[NC_hailstorm]

The 12z GFS has a strat split/reversal up at 20mb at day 11.GaWx is right a technical SSW is a reversal at 10mb but anything above 30mb can shake up a pattern from what I've read.Carry on.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Holy hell a 1050 mb HP sitting over WV

[dsaur]

1 hour ago, Shack said:

Tony ! Where you been? 

I'm with ya' on the 100 year sleet storm.  Disappointed in our immediate outlook, though, for anything of the such as the cold looks allergic to our latitude.  Maybe the SSW will deliver us a Valentines Day sledding event.

Off topic, but how'd you fare in last weeks breezy conditions around Griffin?  I came through on Saturday and whoa, what a mess !

 

Hey, Shack!  I've been lurking mostly, forgot my id and password, so it took a while for my old man brain to limber up enough to get them right so I could post.  I wanted to follow Larry.  The  storm missed me by a mile to the south.  Just lost some pines. But Hobby Lobby is a mile and a half or so as the crow flies, and it was much closer sw of that.  Too close for comfort.  The killer Sunny Side Easter storm was a mile and a half, or so north, and this one south, actually there were two side by side as they passed  me.  So many huge old oaks down everywhere, but oddly not so many into houses.  You see them cut up and piled on the curb, but the house seems in tact.  Of course, not in every instance.  I feel for those poor people that got blasted. I reacted the same way to the Easter storm as I did this storm.  My weather radio gave me positions as it came and I calculate the Easter storm would miss north, and these two the other day miss south, but when they were on me, all I could do was stand in the glass porch and look out watching for them, and tracking the position of the thunder.  It got dark as night, then the rain in torrents making a funnel impossible to see if it was there, and the siren a quarter mile south, either got taken out by the wind, failed to go off, or the wind and rain and thunder was so loud I couldn't hear it.  No one I've talked to heard it.  They put it up after the Easter storm killed people when it went thru. The oddest thing happened a minute or two before the super cell got here.  It got really quiet, and the wind died.   It was like all the air was sucked out of the space.  I remember thinking it was like the sea pulling away from shore before the tidal wave came in.  No way I was going outside, lol, ...and then the daylight just went away. Next time I'll head to the basement, it could have be Godzilla, and I wouldn't have been able to see him, stomping thru my yard.  No need to look for it, when it gets like that.

[GaWx]

Note that the GEFS forecast is for a +NAO in early Feb. Since 1950, 6"+ snowstorms at RDU have occurred equally frequently between +NAO (~1/3), neutral NAO (~1/3), and -NAO (~1/3) as I've posted in the past, which admittedly was a surprise to me. So, a +NAO, alone, should not be a reason to feel there's virtually no chance for a big snow there and in the SE in general in early Feb. The hard data says that's not the case. That doesn't at all mean I'm predicting one though.

[BornAgain13]

Still 9-10 days out but a pretty good signal of maybe, an ICE storm for the Piedmont around this time frame and much colder weather afterwards. Something to watch at least in the coming days.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk

[wncsnow]

Get your boats ready.. 

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Still 9-10 days out but a pretty good signal of maybe, an ICE storm for the Piedmont around this time frame and much colder weather afterwards. Something to watch at least in the coming days.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

I'm sick of 9-10 days out! But something along those lines could definitely work. I think we will have plenty of moisture to work with, just need that cold to press hard and early as the moisture rides the boundary. I don't feel good about getting anything on the back side of the cold, which appears transient for now.

[BooneWX]

33 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Get your boats ready.. 

6.3 inches on the year already! This week should get me close to 7 and a half. 
 

I sound like a broken record but it’s an absolutely absurd pattern that we’ve been in since October. I thought 2018 couldn’t be topped but we’ll be well on our way in WNC.

[Jonathang80]

To bad, all of that could not be snow. Supposed go get close to 6 inches at my house in Georgia. Not looking forward to it.  Like you said. It seems like all that we have received lately is rain. Would be nice to have a week of sun to dry everything out.

[NorthHillsWx]

February 1-5 is our window for wintry weather in the southeast. Models have been extremely volatile but for the most part they are showing some love during this period, though each model differs significantly on which wave/timeframe that is. My take is that there is potential and we are just now getting into the 7-day window where models should begin to hone in a bit more on the evolution of smaller scale factors that will dictate our final outcome. SER will not be denied but the PAC is finally favorable and the active pattern persists. We need an overrunning scenario to score imo. Anything too amped is going to end up west of the Apps and I just don’t think we have the cold air supply with +NAO for a Miller B with freezing/frozen precipitation to work out east of the mountains. I was hoping for a full scale flip to cold with the pattern change but unfortunately it looks like it’s just going to be a 5-6 day window then a big warmup again. We can score during this timeframe, however, and there is potential showing up on all modeling with huge variance of how it plays out. Next 2 days will be critical as we sort out a hectic wave pattern in the 7-12 day timeframe 

[olafminesaw]

How it feels to track the GFS:

[Grayman]

3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

I'm sick of 9-10 days out! But something along those lines could definitely work. I think we will have plenty of moisture to work with, just need that cold to press hard and early as the moisture rides the boundary. I don't feel good about getting anything on the back side of the cold, which appears transient for now.

Me too. We are all such weenies and it rarely works out .

[BooneWX]

Just hang on, happy hours gfs never disappoints

[GaWx]

12Z Euro is delayed due to maintenance being done:

[GaWx]

Longest -AO streaks back to 1950 along with RDU temperature anomaly

 

12/25/1959-4/4/1960: 102 days/ 5 BN

2/2-4/11/1958: 69 days/ 6 BN

2/5-4/9/2013: 64 days/ 4 BN

12/23/1962-2/23/1963: 63 days/ 6 BN

11/23/2022-1/23/2023: 62 days/ 3 AN

 

 The recent -AO streak apparently ended yesterday at 62 days. What's very notable is how much warmer it has been in the SE US vs during other very long -AO streaks with an anomaly of +3 at RDU vs the other four having had anomalies of a very cold -4 to -6! And on top of that, I'm using updated 30 year normals in the calculations, meaning a warmer normal for the current streak.

[GaWx]

 If you were hoping for a Euro run with implications for cold to dominate the SE in early Feb, the just out 12Z isn't the run for you as the SE ridge holds the cold back. Prior runs looked better, especially yesterday's 12Z. And this isn't a surprise based on the frequent overzealousness of models bringing cold to the SE this winter. But then again, there's the usual high uncertainties with operational runs out past a week or so. So, take with a grain as it is still early.

[wncsnow]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 If you were hoping for a Euro run with implications for cold to dominate the SE in early Feb, the just out 12Z isn't the run for you as the SE ridge holds the cold back. Prior runs looked better, especially yesterday's 12Z. And this isn't a surprise based on the frequent overzealousness of models bringing cold to the SE this winter. But then again, there's the usual high uncertainties with operational runs out past a week or so. So, still take with a grain as it is still early.

Yep it looks awful unless your a duck

[NC_hailstorm]

No worries the 18z GFS is going all 1899 again lol.

[SnowDawg]

40 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 If you were hoping for a Euro run with implications for cold to dominate the SE in early Feb, the just out 12Z isn't the run for you as the SE ridge holds the cold back. Prior runs looked better, especially yesterday's 12Z. And this isn't a surprise based on the frequent overzealousness of models bringing cold to the SE this winter. But then again, there's the usual high uncertainties with operational runs out past a week or so. So, take with a grain as it is still early.

I'd be interested to see how far the storm at the end could push the boundary. For whatever it's worth its this 3rd through the 7th or so period that the ensembles are at least trying to signal some overunning fun. I know it's day 10 plus so what's the use, but I guess we've got to talk about something lol.

[GaWx]

 Well, the good (from a cold lover's standpoint) and not so surprising news is that the 12Z EPS mean says that the operational is drunk with its SE warmth late in the 6-10. Also, other than a little bit of can kicking, EPS retained its chill of prior runs and actually is slightly colder than prior runs in much of the 11-15.

[NorthHillsWx]

18z GFS says lights out for the piedmont with back to back ice storms