LithiaWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 1 hour ago, GaWx said: RDU received significant snowfall the last two late January's (2.7", 1.6"). Based on the ensembles as they look now, it appears that they'll have a halfway decent shot for a third wintry late January in a row. Anyone want to make a prediction on whether or not they'll get 1"+ of SN/IP and/or 0.10"+ of ZR between January 21st and 31st? This impending pattern change for late January looks fun to me and that's even with me having very little chance for wintry precip due to poor climo for that this far south. I just enjoy cold patterns. Many times in late January we don't have this kind of change to look forward to. So, I feel fortunate. In the meantime, the last week or so of wx here has been quite enjoyable for walking. I'm also looking forward to the upcoming cold weekend with highs of only 50-55 and lows of 30-35. The weekend looks to average ~8 BN with very low dewpoints. Great for outdoors! I’d take +300 odds on that if you’re offering lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 GFS and some of the hi-res models throw a little moisture back into eastern NC as the shortwave digs strengthening the LP offshore Saturday. This has trended with more lift/moisture in recent runs. Won’t be a big deal but with cold air rushing in there could be some snow showers over eastern NC Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: GFS and some of the hi-res models throw a little moisture back into eastern NC as the shortwave digs strengthening the LP offshore Saturday. This has trended with more lift/moisture in recent runs. Won’t be a big deal but with cold air rushing in there could be some snow showers over eastern NC Saturday Yep! And high and dry for the piedmont 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Yep! And high and dry for the piedmont If the NAM is correct there would actually be some heavier squalls with some isolated accumulation with that look. Too bad the trough is positively tilted and this runs out not up, that’s a banger low that gets going quickly along the frontal boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 NAM and GFS have actually made significant westward shifts over the last 24 hours with the LP Saturday. Euro and CMC aren’t far off either. Wouldn’t shock me for a surprise somewhere in eastern NC, especially near Hwy 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: If the NAM is correct there would actually be some heavier squalls with some isolated accumulation with that look. Too bad the trough is positively tilted and this runs out not up, that’s a banger low that gets going quickly along the frontal boundary Actually the clown map has an isolated area with 6"+. Which if anything like that happens would be hilarious, the way this winter has gone . It's funny because the mid Atlantic forum was drawn in by this wave a few days back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Actually the clown map has an isolated area with 6"+. Which if anything like that happens would be hilarious, the way this winter has gone . It's funny because the mid Atlantic forum was drawn in by this wave a few days back. That would be one of the funnier random events to see new Bern get 3-4 inches out of an unexpected isolated snow band while most of the MA heads into February snowless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Well, the 6z Euro has it now too all the way back into central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Well, the 6z Euro has it now too all the way back into central NC I'm suspicious, but subtle trends make all the difference. I think it's too little, too late for the triad (besides we don't normally do well in these setups), but perhaps a glimmer of hope for the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Meanwhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 3 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Meanwhile... Can't remember the last time I was nervous about the sun being out in January lol. Granted I'm to the East of the of the highest counts of that map. But with the sun being out all afternoon, does make me cautious, moreso than I have been in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 Close.. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2023 Share Posted January 12, 2023 So you're telling me there's a chance: Friday Night A slight chance of rain before 1am, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 1am and 4am, then a slight chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 On 1/11/2023 at 1:58 PM, GaWx said: Longest -AO streaks back to 1950: 12/25/1959-4/4/1960: 102 days 2/2-4/11/1958: 69 days 2/5-4/9/2013: 64 days 12/23/1962-2/23/1963: 63 days ------------------- Current 11/23/2022-1/11/2023+: 50 days+ 0Z 1/11/23 GEFS 14 day fcast is even more emphatic about keeping the streak throughout, which would make 64+ days if verified, would mean at least a tie for third longest, and would then be only 5 days from tieing second place. At RDU, the current 50 day -AO streak has averaged ~2 AN. We'll see where this ends up whenever the streak finally ends. If it were to end up AN or even NN, it would be notably mild vs the other four -AO streaks that were noted: 12/25/1959-4/4/1960: 5 BN 2/2-4/11/1958: 6 BN 2/5-4/9/2013: 4 BN 12/23/1962-2/23/1963: 6 BN vs 11/23/2022-1/11/2023: 2 AN but streak ongoing Followup: Today's GEFS remains insistent on the -AO streak going at least another 14 days. That would then put it at 65 days and counting if it were to verify, the third longest on record and the longest since 1960! Longest -AO streaks back to 1950: 12/25/1959-4/4/1960: 102 days 2/2-4/11/1958: 69 days 2/5-4/9/2013: 64 days 12/23/1962-2/23/1963: 63 days ------------------- Current 11/23/2022-1/12/2023+: 51 days+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 0Z Euro/CMC is a good bit colder than the torchy 0Z GFS in the SE in the 7-10 day, especially up at 850 mb. Also, the 0Z UKMET at day 7 is more similar to the Euro/CMC than the GFS. The 0Z Euro changed quite a bit late in the run. But that's the nature of operational volatility especially after day 7. So, lots of uncertainty coming towards next weekend. A little tweaking of the Euro and it could get interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z Euro/CMC is a good bit colder than the torchy 0Z GFS in the SE in the 7-10 day, especially up at 850 mb. Also, the 0Z UKMET at day 7 is more similar to the Euro/CMC than the GFS. The 0Z Euro changed quite a bit late in the run. But that's the nature of operational volatility especially after day 7. So, lots of uncertainty coming towards next weekend. Rule of thumb that I like to use in the 7 to 10 day range is used the Ensamble’s Usually the operational is usually very volatile even the euro for that matter after seven days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, thunderbolt said: Rule of thumb that I like to use in the 7 to 10 day range is used the Ensamble’s Usually the operational is usually very volatile even the euro for that matter after seven days Hot off the press, the 0Z EPS is a bit colder than the last two runs for most of the 11-15 with ground temperatures a few degrees BN. The EPS is much colder than the torchy GEFS in the 11-15. Model wars! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 We’re already punting to February at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 If the pattern change doesn’t happen in the 22-27 timeframe than the GEFS wins bc the EPS has been honking that timeframe for days. Beyond that who knows at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 EPS still looks interesting for the 1/25-1/26 time period. And tonight's "flurry" event is a perfect example of how quickly things can change. I know it isn't really a big deal, but it only popped up in the past 1-2 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 12Z GFS/GEFS are still a torch. 12Z CMC is much warmer than 0Z late in its run fwiw. Will the much colder than GFS suite 0Z Euro/EPS/GEPS start to give in to warmer at 12Z or will they hold their own? Any guesses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: EPS still looks interesting for the 1/25-1/26 time period. And tonight's "flurry" event is a perfect example of how quickly things can change. I know it isn't really a big deal, but it only popped up in the past 1-2 days. Hard to really trust anything past a couple of days anyway. The models love to show something in the 7 to 10 day range only for them to disappear the next day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z GFS/GEFS are still a torch. 12Z CMC is much warmer than 0Z late in its run fwiw. Will the much colder than GFS suite 0Z Euro/EPS/GEPS start to give in to warmer at 12Z or will they hold their own? Any guesses? Moneys on PAC winning out and a continuation of the same pattern. Active cutters and brief cooldowns with no arctic connection. EPS has oversold cold all year I see no reason to expect it to change 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 12z Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 52 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: 12z Euro Holds serve on the colder look but still nothing of interest winter weather wise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 why is every storm a cutter, what happened to the good ole Gulf storms? when we do get cold for snow all the storms are cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Time to start spraying for weeds . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Moneys on PAC winning out and a continuation of the same pattern. Active cutters and brief cooldowns with no arctic connection. EPS has oversold cold all year I see no reason to expect it to change You win your bet. The 12Z EPS is significantly warmer in days 7-13 vs the 0Z. It now is a little AN averages out vs a little BN on the 0Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 minute ago, GaWx said: You win your bet. The 12Z EPS is significantly warmer in days 7-13 vs the 0Z. The EPS is still way colder than the GFS and not far off. Your post is misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 If it’s going to be warm, I just wish it could be dry. At this juncture I’d trade snow for no rain until March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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