Tacoma Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 I like our chances for the NC mountains and SC mountains plus N Georgia for the 7 th storm. Looking like there is a high chance from what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Tacoma said: I like our chances for the NC mountains and SC mountains plus N Georgia for the 7 th storm. Looking like there is a high chance from what I see. I wouldn't call it a high chance, but certainly still a chance. Looked like around a quarter of GEFS members with over an inch in those areas. Enough of a signal to bear watching but it's gonna be a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Tacoma said: I like our chances for the NC mountains and SC mountains plus N Georgia for the 7 th storm. Looking like there is a high chance from what I see. Cold rain most likely. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 38 minutes ago, Tacoma said: I like our chances for the NC mountains and SC mountains plus N Georgia for the 7 th storm. Looking like there is a high chance from what I see. This doesn't scream high chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Midday trends are exactly what you don't want to see. The GFS being an outlier with a super amped storm compared to other modeling( and it's own modeling). CMC doesn't show the southern kick at all, and Euro looked like an apps runner instead of the LP being close to the coast. That was rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 It needs more spacing, especially from behind with the western trough dropping in. The wave in front needs to get well out front and amp up in the 50/50 region to increase confluence and give just enough cold to work with. And the trough behind needs to trend west/slower to stop heights rising too much in the east inducing warmth and an inland track. Odds are probably 90/10 against us at best, but what else have we got to talk about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 My favorite weather, 34 and rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 An almost ideal track for WNC and its a rainstorm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 12z ensemble trends were in our favor for the long-term. Jan 7-8 should be watched but I just don’t think there’s enough of a cold source for snows outside the mountains, regardless of track. We want the trends 12z took from a synoptic perspective however for the longer range. Suppress the CPAC high and push everything further east. With an active STJ we will score eventually as long as there is a cold source. Doesn’t need to be earth shattering cold either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Looks pretty good after ~12th-15th timeframe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 18z GFS a little to warm outside of the Mts for next weekend but the 18z GEFS trended colder with a minor event. Should be an interesting system to track. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, BornAgain13 said: 18z GFS a little to warm outside of the Mts for next weekend but the 18z GEFS trended colder with a minor event. Should be an interesting system to track. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk I feel like one of these systems is bound to feature front end wintry mix eventually, even if relatively minor 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Perhaps for Greensboro, Roxboro and southern Va people on this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 6 hours ago, CaryWx said: Looks pretty good after ~12th-15th timeframe Then when we get to 1/12, we'll have kicked the can another two weeks down the road and saying "yeah, it sucks we lost the first 1/3 of winter but the pattern by the end of the month looks promising." Why does anyone put themselves through such torture. The snow line will be north of Kentucky in 5 years or less. With that said, the 12z Euro had 15/50 ensemble members with accumulating snow in the foothills and western piedmont (I looked at KMTV Martinsville VA since it's close enough to the mountains but is still considered western piedmont. So there's that, I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Oh, Canadian 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 ukmet… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 9 hours ago, CaryWx said: Looks pretty good after ~12th-15th timeframe That is always the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 hours ago, Jonathan said: Then when we get to 1/12, we'll have kicked the can another two weeks down the road and saying "yeah, it sucks we lost the first 1/3 of winter but the pattern by the end of the month looks promising." Why does anyone put themselves through such torture. The snow line will be north of Kentucky in 5 years or less. With that said, the 12z Euro had 15/50 ensemble members with accumulating snow in the foothills and western piedmont (I looked at KMTV Martinsville VA since it's close enough to the mountains but is still considered western piedmont. So there's that, I guess. It will never get that bad in 5 years but it is getting harder and harder getting snow in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 In the 0Z ICON we trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Every 2 or 3 days there is going to be a system according to most models starting next weekend. We desperately need cold air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 12/7 thought this morning. (I'm hoping a fantasy smowmagadeon shows up on one model run so I can renew my wxbell subscription lol) Wishcasting at it's best, but you put a 1030-1035mb HP that's showing up on the Icon/GFS and put it on the CMC and you've got a big storm. GFS/ Euro being somewhat consistent with it's output is very concerning, however there hasn't been much support on other guidance with that particular output. (And the Euro has been wishy washy with the LP track as well) Snowdawg mentioned most of what needs to happen yesterday, but i would also like to see some tracks of the LP digging even more and tracking slightly off the coast again as opposed to inland, with a solution of a more robust HP. As many have said, the cold is looking marginal AT BEST, but it can still line up. As of this post it's essentially the UKM/Icon/CMC vs GFS/Euro in terms of overall storm progression (with some runs of the Euro on the other side in terms of track, not temps). As Han Solo infamously said, "Never tell me the odds." I'm pulling for this storm until I can't no more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 On 12/29/2023 at 12:38 PM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Blue turd sighting..... where have you been? lol. Been lurking. Not much to talk about right now sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 That system on the 4th is starting to trend back towards maybe delivering at least a light snow for some ahead of the admittedly longshot that is next weekend. I know last year has made us all jaded and as pessimistic as can be, but I do think it's good to remember how out of nowhere sometimes decent little events can sneak up on us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 12z ICON no good for the 7th outside of the mountains. Big difference between 0z is no sign of the 1030 HP up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 GFS isn't even close. Its trending way north. Could be more of a severe threat for deep south than anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 GFS isn't even close. Its trending way north. Could be more of a severe threat for deep south than anything Which makes no since. Look at where that High Pressure is. Good position. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Uhm I thought the Midwest and Ohio Valley saw less snow during an El Nino? This looks more like a La Nina clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 51 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Uhm I thought the Midwest and Ohio Valley saw less snow during an El Nino? This looks more like a La Nina clown map You should be happy that we are building a deep snowpack to our north. You know we have to get their snow in place first. That way we can have a winter storm here. At least, that's what I heard.... lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: You should be happy that we are building a deep snowpack to our north. You know we have to get their snow in place first. That way we can have a winter storm here. At least, that's what I heard.... lol The thought did cross my mind..I just hope we get one good area wide storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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