PackGrad05 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Both GEFS and EPS currently show approximately 10-20% chance of 1" of snow for central NC over next 10 days. When you change it to a trace, it is roughly 20-30% chance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 43 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Both GEFS and EPS currently show approximately 10-20% chance of 1" of snow for central NC over next 10 days. When you change it to a trace, it is roughly 20-30% chance. GSO has historically had a 32% chance of .1"+ of snow in that 10 day period, so not far off. Also of note, daily snow climo sharply increases from about 3% per day in the next week to about 6% per day the week after. This means between the 29th of Dec and the 4th of Jan there is a 18% chance of at least .1", and a 35% chance between the 5th and 11th. This of course disregards enso state, I assume that many of the snowfalls in the first week of January occured during El nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: And that’s coming from someone who enjoys making people feel miserable about winter weather odds. Weather twitter has been quite the crap show this week. I love looking ahead at patterns as much as the next enthusiast but it’s not healthy to cancel winter in late December based on models that move storms 3,000 miles every 6 hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 European with a little something for next week. Temps need a little help. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 European with a little something for next week. Temps need a little help. Nice look for now. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, strongwxnc said: Nice look for now. . Minus that GLL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 You have my attention 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 00z op GFS absolue trash tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 Whether it's snow, rain, or nothing for us we need that system around the 4th to phase, deepen, and move into the 50/50 region to give us our best shot at something widespread with the following system on the 7th/8th. The GEFS was really sending a solid signal for it at 18z but even the ensemble is jumping around wildly, so clearly things are far from settled good or bad for next week. Canadian shows the potential if we can time things up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 How SE people seem to choose which model run would give us the most accurate weather prediction with the best chance of snow. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 January 7th-10th is the timeline we all need to be looking at. Right now, this solution is an outlier. But guidance has strong support of a storm in this timeframe. Some have all the players we need, some don't. But this timeframe overall shows the strongest support of a potential storm that can make the (almost) entire forum happy that I've seen in a couple of years that doesn't seem like a fantasy. (IMO, the storm around the 4th is just a bonus if something pans out, but it's not what I think is the best opportunity) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 GFS has rain up to the Hudson Bay on January 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: GFS has rain up to the Hudson Bay on January 10 Finally some good news. Almost two years now since I have seen a snowflake at my house also. Sad. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 13 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Finally some good news. Almost two years now since I have seen a snowflake at my house also. Sad. Blue turd sighting..... where have you been? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 18Z GFS coming in 4-5 degrees colder during the 7th storm. upper 30's and rain for most of the board, with snow confined to basically I40 North. Overall better than the 12Z run, and VERY close to showing something more exciting. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 4 hours ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: 18Z GFS coming in 4-5 degrees colder during the 7th storm. upper 30's and rain for most of the board, with snow confined to basically I40 North. Overall better than the 12Z run, and VERY close to showing something more exciting. Meanwhile both EPS and GEFS have backed off probabilities. Both showing less than 15% chance of 1" of snow for central NC. ECMWF control run shows zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 0z GFS says.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Aannnddd we move on to mid January. The cold is indeed coming, but is the pattern working with us or against us? Polar vortex coming to the party with a strat warming sure does sound nice in Jan/Feb, but not at the expense of our storm track. The drama builds and the clock is ticking!! (Am I the only one with Deja Vu here??) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Aannnddd we move on to mid January. The cold is indeed coming, but is the pattern working with us or against us? Polar vortex coming to the party with a strat warming sure does sound nice in Jan/Feb, but not at the expense of our storm track. The drama builds and the clock is ticking!! (Am I the only one with Deja Vu here??) CSNY Deja Vu Record is skipping Going to be a rainy January anywhere outside the mountains at this rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 22 hours ago, SnowDawg said: Whether it's snow, rain, or nothing for us we need that system around the 4th to phase, deepen, and move into the 50/50 region to give us our best shot at something widespread with the following system on the 7th/8th. The GEFS was really sending a solid signal for it at 18z but even the ensemble is jumping around wildly, so clearly things are far from settled good or bad for next week. Canadiashows the potential if we can time things up right. A lot needs to go right for a snowstorm in the southeast. We have none of that now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtgus Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Blowing Rock, NC tonight https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/blowing-rock/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 North/West of 85 and definitely North of 40 I'll take my chances all day long with this look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 The signal for the Jan 7-8 storm is very high however at this point it seems to be a foothills/mountains deal. Beyond that, I am growing very concerned with the ensemble look of building in a ridge in the CPAC. While I think a warmup mid month seemed somewhat likely, it never really gets cold beforehand and now I am increasingly concerned about how long it will take to break that feature down. That was a semi permanent feature last season and we know how that turned out. Hopefully we see ensembles weaken that ridge and allow cold air progression east of the central states or we will be banking on fabulous February. This was the ONE thing I was hoping to avoid this year and hopefully it is transient but we all know those cpac ridges can be tough to dislodge and once established we are usually in a can kicking regime 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 The latest EURO, GFS, and their ensembles restrict this to the mountains outside of some novelty flakes in the foothills. Really good agreement between all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: The signal for the Jan 7-8 storm is very high however at this point it seems to be a foothills/mountains deal. Beyond that, I am growing very concerned with the ensemble look of building in a ridge in the CPAC. While I think a warmup mid month seemed somewhat likely, it never really gets cold beforehand and now I am increasingly concerned about how long it will take to break that feature down. That was a semi permanent feature last season and we know how that turned out. Hopefully we see ensembles weaken that ridge and allow cold air progression east of the central states or we will be banking on fabulous February. This was the ONE thing I was hoping to avoid this year and hopefully it is transient but we all know those cpac ridges can be tough to dislodge and once established we are usually in a can kicking regime Unfortunately that wasn't just a feature last year, it has largely become our background base state for the last 7 years. Silver lining for the rest of January is that the Niño should dampen the SE ridge and allow the Arctic boundary of a broad trough to occasionally flex far enough SE to time up a stj wave running along it for at least parts of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Yep, looks like a big trough in the west around the 7-10 of January and a "warmup" here (never really gets that cold). When will that pattern break? Who knows. The clock is ticking and we are well on our way to another disappointing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Yep. We’re going back into that classic winter pattern of “cold rain” and then dry when the actual cold shows up. Just an annoying last few years. Not even a threat to track for more than a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 We cannot afford to punt to February… by the 15th, our snow climo takes a nosedive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 I'm still sticking with my guns on the 7th storm. Climo wins 95% of the time, but this is still the closest look I've seen in a while. As long as models show a storm in the SE that's not an apps runner, and HP to the north, I'll take those chances. Need help, but it's possible. I'd rather be overly optimistic about this one chance than nothing at all, because who knows when there's gonna be another one looking long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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