Coach McGuirk Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 The operational 00Z GFS is garbage for us now outside of 7 days when it was looking so promising. It's starting to look like last year all over again. Maybe we get a little snow with the ULL swinging through in 7 days. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 7 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said: The operational 00Z GFS is garbage for us now outside of 7 days when it was looking so promising. It's starting to look like last year all over again. Maybe we get a little snow with the ULL swinging through in 7 days. Yep. There's still time for things to flip back but with how northern stream dominant things have suddenly become I'd swear we're looking at a La Niña cold spell. Pretty much kills any shot at something simple like a weak slider. Will take much more complicated phasing and timing. We haven't exactly done complicated very well in recent history. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 And a Happy NewYear! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=asnowMerry Christmas! Of course we can just lock in hour 360. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 The 12z GFS look for the 8-10th would lock the Carolina’s up for 5 days if that happened. Heavy front and backside snow sandwiched around a massive IP and Ice storm. That would be a glacier. Extreme Cold behind it too. Yes please!!! This weenie would be satisfied for the season 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Man watching the HP move in on the GFS for the fantasy storm is a thing of CAD beauty. 1030 just perfectly placed and timed correctly. I’m positive it happens exactly as depicted in reality! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Man watching the HP move in on the GFS for the fantasy storm is a thing of CAD beauty. 1030 just perfectly placed and timed correctly. I’m positive it happens exactly as depicted in reality!We can only hope so! If Brick starts weighing in, you’ve gotta start liking your chances around our parts.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 GFS still has New Years System, but this run just looks weird to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, JoshM said: GFS still has New Years System, but this run just looks weird to me. There has been a sign of these lows digging deep, really deep. A lot of energy flying around currently. Just watch and look at the trends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, JoshM said: GFS still has New Years System, but this run just looks weird to me. Verbatim that should be all snow n and nw quadrant . Gfs did that with last ull , had rain over some areas that was all snow. Thicknesses clearly present snow. Boundary shouldn't be an issue then n and nw quadrant. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 It is certainly something to keep an eye on. Temps are going to be too warm for any significant snow even if it is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 It is still showing up this morning for Saturday evening. Definitely could see some flakes with ULL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Lock it in Josh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Just now, Leesville Wx Hawk said: Lock it in Josh! with marginal cold, we better hope this thing doesnt amp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 2 hours ago, JoshM said: with marginal cold, we better hope this thing doesnt amp up. Looks like a couple of opportunities over the next couple of weeks to track. Would love to see the pattern follow 79-80 given a possible relaxation. Snow and cold first week of January. 2 weeks of mild followed by a historic February. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 The long range looks very, very good. That is all 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Long range is filled with plenty of cold rain opportunities. Cold air is non existent outside of the mountains. Lots of energy but a lack of artic air. No fantasy storms, as we approach the new year. Models show the mountains have the best chance to score going into mid January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 35 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Long range is filled with plenty of cold rain opportunities. Cold air is non existent outside of the mountains. Lots of energy but a lack of artic air. No fantasy storms, as we approach the new year. Models show the mountains have the best chance to score going into mid January. The mountains always have the best chance of scoring. Just relax and don't get caught up in the model run to run changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 SOOO much potential over the next couple of weeks based on the 6Z GFS. Just a little bit more help, and there's a good chance someone gets the ground white at least. Specifically the storm shown on the 6Z GFS around January 8th. The LP is essentially in a PERFECT position. Get that thing to neg tilt a bit, and get that HP to build in just a little bit more, and you have a perfect storm. It looks ugly on the surface, but temps are around 40 for most of the forum so again, baby steps in the right direction, and we got a winner. This one (really January 8-10 as a whole) has my eye for now over everything else. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 1 hour ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Long range is filled with plenty of cold rain opportunities. Cold air is non existent outside of the mountains. Lots of energy but a lack of artic air. No fantasy storms, as we approach the new year. Models show the mountains have the best chance to score going into mid January. There is just enough cold air around. We don’t want a massive arctic surge in this pattern as that will lead to a suppressed storm track. With the active STJ and NAO trending solidly negative, we are in business from two of the better players on the field in a Nino cycle. The pac could use some work and models are showing some pesky GLLs but I am extremely excited about the Jan 6-10 period and beyond. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Oof. Torches at the surface verbatim, with insufficient cold air, despite the perfect track and being timed well with the cold air. Probably would be snow in this scenario, but might not really even accumulate. Of course, this is still pretty far out, but we keep seeing this system too warm at the surface. Hopefully we see that change towards mid-month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Oof. Torches at the surface verbatim, with insufficient cold air, despite the perfect track and being timed well with the cold air. Probably would be snow in this scenario, but might not really even accumulate. Of course, this is still pretty far out, but we keep seeing this system too warm at the surface. Hopefully we see that change towards mid-month. Timetables are different by about 36-48 hours, but the CMC also showing the system, but even closer to what we want to see. Though it has the system coming around the 3rd into the 4th. for the sake of not having the feed being forever to scroll down, i won't post the shot from TT, but it's close to a good scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Oof. Torches at the surface verbatim, with insufficient cold air, despite the perfect track and being timed well with the cold air. Probably would be snow in this scenario, but might not really even accumulate. Of course, this is still pretty far out, but we keep seeing this system too warm at the surface. Hopefully we see that change towards mid-month. Man! That is super torchy for 2m temps considering how cold it is even at 900. Would think BL temps to be 33-34F range at worse with that look. How is that thin surface warm layer squeezing in under there anyway? Of course none of this is fully correct yet anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 27, 2023 Author Share Posted December 27, 2023 Flizzard alert 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted December 27, 2023 Share Posted December 27, 2023 Happy hour time (maybe?) at 120 on the GFS, cold press is slightly further south compared to 12z. EH, at 132, temps are 2-3 degrees cooler accross the board. but 45 and rain , and 48 and rain are still just rain. 138 - temps 5-10 degrees cooler accross the board compared to 12z. Still relatively close for some magic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 18 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: The long range looks very, very good. That is all The long range always looks good until it actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 5 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said: The long range always looks good until it actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 A decent signal, especially for the mountains for 6th/7th 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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