Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

[olafminesaw]

12 hours ago, JoshM said:

0z GFS is good too, IMO. Lots of energy flying around

 

That's my biggest concern is all the pieces flying around. I'd much rather a weak southern stream system running along a ridge.

[NorthHillsWx]

GEFS and GEPS both look really good for the first week of January. This hasn’t been a can kick either.

[BooneWX]

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GEFS and GEPS both look really good for the first week of January. This hasn’t been a can kick either.

I’m cautiously optimistic. One thing that concerns me is the lack of snowpack over the northern states and Canada. We really need a sacrificial storm to bring the goods to that region of the continent. 

[SnowDawg]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

I’m cautiously optimistic. One thing that concerns me is the lack of snowpack over the northern states and Canada. We really need a sacrificial storm to bring the goods to that region of the continent. 

Will definitely be needed to score on any close calls, but if we get a great track and well placed high pressures I don't think it will matter at least for the climo favored areas north/west of 85. 

Moving into the heart of winter, even the slightly above average air from the northern plains advecting down will be plenty cold enough. Getting those HP's built overtop of our active STJ has been pretty much non-existent thus far though, thanks to the Pacific firehose blasting southern Canada. So hopefully that will change with the ridge retrograding.

[NorthHillsWx]

Finally a long range op run with multiple winter weather chances. This aligns perfectly with the ensembles and their well-advertised pattern flip going into the first week of Jan. I already like this more than the last few years where we started kicking the can chasing day 15 pattern changes 7x a week at this point. Nice seeing a favorable pattern in peak climo seemingly becoming a reality. Even if this window doesn’t produce the LR looks extremely good and I think we will have a couple shots before mid month. That doesn’t mean anyone outside of the mountains scores, but we will have opportunities to track 

[SnowDawg]

To this point this winter we've pretty much followed climo for a strong el niño to a tee. If this were to continue then we should get a 1-2 week favorable window in early January, which we are starting to see on the models. Normally that would be followed by a mid/late January thaw. Decent chance that by that time the MJO is heading into the warm phases for us so certainly possible. Not all bad because troughing to our west can build that snow pack over the northern plains. This sets us up perfectly for February, the banner month of strong el Niños, usually very cold and very snowy in the east. This could time up well with possible stratosphere impacts and the MJO making its way back out of the warm phases. 

[BooneWX]

Yall smell that? Smells like it’s almost slider time. 

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

To this point this winter we've pretty much followed climo for a strong el niño to a tee. If this were to continue then we should get a 1-2 week favorable window in early January, which we are starting to see on the models. Normally that would be followed by a mid/late January thaw. Decent chance that by that time the MJO is heading into the warm phases for us so certainly possible. Not all bad because troughing to our west can build that snow pack over the northern plains. This sets us up perfectly for February, the banner month of strong el Niños, usually very cold and very snowy in the east. This could time up well with possible stratosphere impacts and the MJO making its way back out of the warm phases. 

If all pans out, much better than last year. However, still a fly in the ointment so to speak. We still have a problem with the MJO, all due to the extremely warm wpac . Notice how once it gets to the cold phases it zooms through then crawls through the warm.?.. That could spell a short cold period in early January followed by an extended nirmal to mild stretch again. Thankfully, the Nino should mitigate the mildness with that . Also, the Strat deal could really switch it to full bore old fashioned Winter late January/through Feb. 

[SnowDawg]

26 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

If all pans out, much better than last year. However, still a fly in the ointment so to speak. We still have a problem with the MJO, all due to the extremely warm wpac . Notice how once it gets to the cold phases it zooms through then crawls through the warm.?.. That could spell a short cold period in early January followed by an extended nirmal to mild stretch again. Thankfully, the Nino should mitigate the mildness with that . Also, the Strat deal could really switch it to full bore old fashioned Winter late January/through Feb. 

Generally my thinking as well that things could go really great come late January into February with the delayed impacts of a strat event potentially lining up with the MJO finally making it back around to colder phases, or at the very least going into the COD and letting the strat warming and Niño control the pattern.

[SnowDawg]

Hard to hate this look on an ensemble this far out. Low in the 50/50 region, Canadian HP pushing in, and low pressures building along the gulf. 

[NorthHillsWx]

51 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Hard to hate this look on an ensemble this far out. Low in the 50/50 region, Canadian HP pushing in, and low pressures building along the gulf. 

This period has my full attention 

[GaWx]

The first run of the Euro Weeklies that covers 1/29-2/5 has BN temperatures in the SE. This is after the prior 4 weeks all being NN to BN with BN every week over FL. Coldest two weeks are Jan 1-8 and Jan 29-Feb 5. All weeks remain normal to wetter than normal with strongest anomalies far SE and no dry areas in any week.

 So, El Niño climo ftw!

 In addition, keep in mind the increasing chance for a major SSW ~1/3-6. Starting 1-3 weeks after that there’d be a tendency per climo during El Niño for the SE to have BN temperatures dominate for a 3-8 week period per analogs. If you look at major SSW analogs, the SE US pretty much leads  all areas of the US with the strongest BN anomalies.

 Here’s 1/29-2/5 temperatures:

 

 

[StantonParkHoya]

Having an active STJ means we can accident ourselves into something

[GaWx]

16 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

To this point this winter we've pretty much followed climo for a strong el niño to a tee. If this were to continue then we should get a 1-2 week favorable window in early January, which we are starting to see on the models. Normally that would be followed by a mid/late January thaw. Decent chance that by that time the MJO is heading into the warm phases for us so certainly possible. Not all bad because troughing to our west can build that snow pack over the northern plains. This sets us up perfectly for February, the banner month of strong el Niños, usually very cold and very snowy in the east. This could time up well with possible stratosphere impacts and the MJO making its way back out of the warm phases. 

 

11 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

If all pans out, much better than last year. However, still a fly in the ointment so to speak. We still have a problem with the MJO, all due to the extremely warm wpac . Notice how once it gets to the cold phases it zooms through then crawls through the warm.?.. That could spell a short cold period in early January followed by an extended nirmal to mild stretch again. Thankfully, the Nino should mitigate the mildness with that . Also, the Strat deal could really switch it to full bore old fashioned Winter late January/through Feb. 

 Keep in mind that the MJO, though quite important, can sometimes be overruled by other factors. Whereas outside the COD phase 5 is on average one of the warmer Dec phases for the SE, that is just an average.

 Just last year the coldest air of the winter in the SE by far was during the period Dec 23-26, which was during high amplitude phase 5! (see below). The main driver was a very strong -AO teaming up with a moderate +PNA along with a strong -EPO that had just ended. There actually was a moderate +NAO. And it was during La Niña! At least this year we have El Niño and its favoring of a +PNA. And then we’ll see if we can get a -AO and perhaps a -NAO.

 So, looking ahead to Jan, if the MJO really does go into moderate phases 4-6, I wouldn’t bet the ranch on it being mild in the SE then. No recent Euro Weeklies run has had it mild.

[Daniel Boone]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

 Keep in mind that the MJO, though quite important, can sometimes be overruled by other factors. Whereas outside the COD phase 5 is on average one of the warmer Dec phases for the SE, that is just an average.

 Just last year the coldest air of the winter in the SE by far was during the period Dec 23-26, which was during high amplitude phase 5! (see below). The main driver was a very strong -AO teaming up with a moderate +PNA along with a strong -EPO that had just ended. There actually was a moderate +NAO. And it was during La Niña! At least this year we have El Niño and its favoring of a +PNA. And then we’ll see if we can get a -AO and perhaps a -NAO.

 So, looking ahead to Jan, if the MJO really does go into moderate phases 4-6, I wouldn’t bet the ranch on it being mild in the SE then. No recent Euro Weeklies run has had it mild.

Yeah agree Larry, that was what Carvers and I in the Tenn Valley Forum were saying regarding how we get around the MJO .warm phases.  

[olafminesaw]

Some potential here for some flakes to fly with the ULL

[PackGrad05]

The January 1-5 timeframe is definitely worth watching.  GFS has been on and off with a system for NC. 

EPS has some members showing something, and GEFS is starting to pick up on it also.

[JoshM]

0z Euro says "Happy New Year!!!"

 

 

[GaWx]

 Regarding the periods in El Niño Jans with outside circle MJO phase 4-6 for 5+ days, were they all dominated by mildness in the SE? I’ll look at RDU:

1. Jan 17-30, 2019: no as it averaged 2 BN

 

2. Jan 1-13, 2015: No as it averaged 3 BN

 

 

3. Jan 4-6, 18-21, 2010: No as it averaged 3 BN

 

 

4. Jan 1-15, 26-30, 2007: Yes as it averaged 7 AN

 

 

5. Jan 1-12, 15-19, 30-31, 2005: Yes as it averaged 5 AN

 

 

6. Jan 1, 8-12, 2003: Yes as it averaged 4 AN

 

7. Jan 12-28, 1995: Yes as it averaged 5 AN

 

 

8. Jan 20-31, 1978: No as it averaged 8 BN

———————

 So, for the 8 El Niño Jan periods with 5+ days of outside COD phases 4-6, RDU was mild during only half of them. To be fair when averaging the 108 days, I do get 1.5 AN. However, even that is only slightly warmer than normal.

 Conclusion: Although it could very well be mild during non-weak phases 4-6 in El Niño Jans in the SE, don’t assume it will because that was the case for only half of the 8 cases: 2007, 2005, 2003, and 1995. The years 2018, 2015, 2010, and 1978 were cool to cold. This tells me to not assume either way.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

GFS honking the horn around New Years as well, though not as pronounced. Brad P even mentioning the pattern change this morning, so that's at least one positive sign.

[BooneWX]

I’m just ecstatic we finally have a pattern coming that makes model watching worth it 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’m just ecstatic we finally have a pattern coming that makes model watching worth it 

Granted everything can fizzle out of course, but so far this season, this has been about as "to the book" type pattern as expected in a strong El nino as you can expect, which means we should have at least some shots at fun over the next couple of months.

[olafminesaw]

Worth noting that unlike the past couple years, models will probably key into any moderate to major snow threats pretty early on. Good to see the GFS and Canadian also trying to put the pieces together in that timeframe 

[burgertime]

First, good luck to everyone this winter. I’ve been starting to track winter weather here in the Netherlands.
 

Decided to check in on what was going on in the SE with the pattern change. Next week and beyond looks interesting for sure. The 12z Euro map was a bit crazy. If this ULL can drop a little further south some folks outside of the mountains in NC/SC could get in on the action.  Something to keep an eye on. 
 

 

[buckeyefan1]

2 hours ago, burgertime said:

First, good luck to everyone this winter. I’ve been starting to track winter weather here in the Netherlands.
 

Decided to check in on what was going on in the SE with the pattern change. Next week and beyond looks interesting for sure. The 12z Euro map was a bit crazy. If this ULL can drop a little further south some folks outside of the mountains in NC/SC could get in on the action.  Something to keep an eye on. 
 

 

 

Burger!! Hopefully in the next couple of months we'll get to hear you say BOOM   Maybe even more than once   I'm glad you are enjoying the other side of the ocean and all of the beauty that surrounds you. Have fun celebrating the holidays and I look forward to having you stop by from time to time

[olafminesaw]

2 hours ago, burgertime said:

First, good luck to everyone this winter. I’ve been starting to track winter weather here in the Netherlands.
 

Decided to check in on what was going on in the SE with the pattern change. Next week and beyond looks interesting for sure. The 12z Euro map was a bit crazy. If this ULL can drop a little further south some folks outside of the mountains in NC/SC could get in on the action.  Something to keep an eye on. 
 

 

An uptick on the GEFS mean as well. Haven't dug into the members at all

 

In case you didn't know, weather.us has about the best free  model data out there internationally. Hopefully you get to track something this winter over there! 

[PackGrad05]

Current EPS shows 20% chance of at least 1" of snow for central NC over next 15 days.

 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

7 hours ago, burgertime said:

First, good luck to everyone this winter. I’ve been starting to track winter weather here in the Netherlands.
 

Decided to check in on what was going on in the SE with the pattern change. Next week and beyond looks interesting for sure. The 12z Euro map was a bit crazy. If this ULL can drop a little further south some folks outside of the mountains in NC/SC could get in on the action.  Something to keep an eye on. 
 

 

Burger!!,

   Man, we sure have missed you over here. Welcome back. When are you coming back to the states?

[SnowDawg]

I hate seeing all this strung out, positive tilt, late blooming stuff from the OP models. Feels like it's been forever since we've had the pleasure of a storm forming back in Texas and getting to just watch it roll in.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Honestly, really not far off for a lot of us to see token flakes on the 29th-30th. Maybe a tad bit more with some help.