CaryWx Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Early next week’s Miller A with a perfect storm track and absolutely no cold air is going to sting. That being said, if that track continues this year eventually we will score Well it's not even astro winter yet and we are only at 35N so my expectations aren't there yet. I do get your larger point though No cold in sight, anywhere, is worse than our usual 'delayed' winter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Looking to the skies Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 This Nov/Dec has not been as the last few years before. Here in S E Ga we have not had many highs above 70 , and most of Dec has been in the 50/60 for highs. We have gotten low as 25 here and it was 29 here this morning. It has been cooler here some days than in NW Ga. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Well it's not even astro winter yet and we are only at 35N so my expectations aren't there yet. I do get your larger point though No cold in sight, anywhere, is worse than are usual 'delayed' winter at this point. Yea I guess to broaden my point: this isn’t even going to produce snow in New England with a perfect track in mid December. For us it’s not shocking but the lack of snow up north with a storm track passing over the “benchmark” is highly, highly anomalous for mid December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 Pretty strong indications that the gears will start to turn on the pattern change in about 10 days. The cold air would begin to move across the CONUS around christmas and settle over the East Coast by the first week in January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 39 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Pretty strong indications that the gears will start to turn on the pattern change in about 10 days. The cold air would begin to move across the CONUS around christmas and settle over the East Coast by the first week in January It's like watching old TV shows in syndication. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, Bevo said: It's like watching old TV shows in syndication. Unfortunately if the pattern change does occur it still doesn't necessarily look particularly cold and snowy for us. But it does seem likely we'll get out of the current pattern where Maine to Spokane are getting warm rain. Highly anomalous patterns don't last forever and El Nino tends to shuffle things up at some point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 10 hours ago, CaryWx said: Well it's not even astro winter yet and we are only at 35N so my expectations aren't there yet. I do get your larger point though No cold in sight, anywhere, is worse than our usual 'delayed' winter at this point. March 19 is technically “astro winter”. Do you think that is good snow climo for us? Met winter exists for a reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 12, 2023 Share Posted December 12, 2023 This next storm could be quite potent. If the GFS is to be believed it drops into the 1980s mb and brings some hefty winds to the area 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Writing is on the wall at this point that this winter is gonna come down to mid-January through February going as expected for a strong Niño. Even with a pattern change, it's gonna take a while to flush all this warm air off the continent and then hopefully build a snowpack in our source regions. The euro weeklies still look good, but they've punted any significant changes to around the 2nd week of January at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 The Euro has a low 980s mb low going right through central NC. This would smash previous pressure records for the month of December. Kinda has the look of a subtropical storm coming up along the Gulf with a fairly tight pressure gradient 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Happy Hour GFS is way west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 56 minutes ago, eyewall said: Happy Hour GFS is way west At least we don’t have to worry about “what if there was cold air” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Happy Hour GFS is way west Brings the higher gusts all the way to the upslope region of the blue ridge, which also where flooding rain in that scenario would occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 This is looking like a significant weather event. I’d expect a serious squall line in Florida too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 34 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: At least we don’t have to worry about “what if there was cold air” We may end up with another tor day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 tor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: tor? Tornado parameters will be higher than average for December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 Man, I'd much rather see this be suppressed and head out to sea. GFS with 50-70+ mph gusts region wide will be destructive. Really don't wanna be in the dark for days on end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Man, I'd much rather see this be suppressed and head out to sea. GFS with 50-70+ mph gusts region wide will be destructive. Really don't wanna be in the dark for days on end. And since there’s no snow to speak of to draw attention to it, this is going to catch many off guard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 11 hours ago, olafminesaw said: The Euro has a low 980s mb low going right through central NC. This would smash previous pressure records for the month of December. 0Z Euro came in even lower. This is going to be an interesting system to track over the next several days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 A 977 in western NC during Dec ranks high on the absurdity chart. If it verifies, the wind from this event would be borderline historic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 One positive trend is this thing has really sped up. What was looking like a long duration event stretching from Sunday to Tuesday is now mostly just Sunday afternoon. Rainfall totals have come down accordingly. I know everyone needs the rain but 3-4” in a short time after last weeks rain would probably cause flash flooding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: One positive trend is this thing has really sped up. What was looking like a long duration event stretching from Sunday to Tuesday is now mostly just Sunday afternoon. Rainfall totals have come down accordingly. I know everyone needs the rain but 3-4” in a short time after last weeks rain would probably cause flash flooding Don't look at the totals coming out of the mountains. I'm worried about flooding here then a paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 50 minutes ago, eyewall said: oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 15 minutes ago, CaryWx said: oy It is likely overdone to some degree but I would think more gusts to around 40-45. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: It is likely overdone to some degree but I would think more gusts to around 40-45. Yeah honestly I'm a little surprised models are only forecasting 40-50 mph gusts considering their tendency to be overdone, particularly on the stronger Euro. It is really hard to get more than 45 mph winds in the Piedmont from baraclonic winds apart from some kind of jet enhancement/sting jet, which does not seem to be present in this case. We'll have to see what the mesoscale models show closer to the event, although they always need to be reduced by 30-50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 14, 2023 Author Share Posted December 14, 2023 1 hour ago, eyewall said: It is likely overdone to some degree but I would think more gusts to around 40-45. It looks overdone. There’s a stable layer, thanks to the rain, that should prevent the higher winds from mixing to the surface. Still plenty of time for that to change of course. The mountains are a different story. I do expect the winds to be kicking at higher elevations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 54 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: It looks overdone. There’s a stable layer, thanks to the rain, that should prevent the higher winds from mixing to the surface. Still plenty of time for that to change of course. The mountains are a different story. I do expect the winds to be kicking at higher elevations yeah for sure. The 12z GFS is significantly farther east with the surface low but the main ULL is definitely much farther north. 12z: 6z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 14, 2023 Share Posted December 14, 2023 49 minutes ago, eyewall said: yeah for sure. The 12z GFS is significantly farther east with the surface low but the main ULL is definitely much farther north. 12z: 6z: Kind of a wonky shift to me. Still not resolved imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now