olafminesaw Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 19 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Our winter is the Iowa offense. Getting our punter out early and often I just daydream about being atop mount Rainier in times like these: 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I just daydream about being atop mount Rainier in times like these: The only mistake that forecaster is making is saying the snow " could be heavy". Should be "will be" , as is obvious. Can you imagine that ?! Those rates !!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 29 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: The only mistake that forecaster is making is saying the snow " could be heavy". Should be "will be" , as is obvious. Can you imagine that ?! Those rates !!!!!! Higher elevations for the win!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 4, 2023 Share Posted December 4, 2023 51 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: The only mistake that forecaster is making is saying the snow " could be heavy". Should be "will be" , as is obvious. Can you imagine that ?! Those rates !!!!!! It's like the past 3 winters' snowfall every two hours through the night. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Just now, olafminesaw said: 384 hour map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Besides this saturday/sunday, the next 10-15 days look below normal. We always focus on the above normal temps but never give the below normal temps much attention....unless there is something frozen with them. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 6, 2023 Share Posted December 6, 2023 Golf on Christmas weekend is NEVER a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Nice look. No cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 19 hours ago, PackGrad05 said: Besides this saturday/sunday, the next 10-15 days look below normal. We always focus on the above normal temps but never give the below normal temps much attention....unless there is something frozen with them. Average to slightly below temps is a win in my book during this time frame. That is any year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2023 Share Posted December 7, 2023 Too far out to mean anything yet but the last third of the 6z GFS looks great. That blocking is absolutely insane leading up to the holidays. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 7, 2023 Author Share Posted December 7, 2023 6 hours ago, SnowDawg said: Too far out to mean anything yet but the last third of the 6z GFS looks great. That blocking is absolutely insane leading up to the holidays. The period from Christmas to the second week of Jan and then again at the end of January to mid Feb have had my attention for a while. I’ve had my fingers crossed that there’s no can kicking coming and it holds firm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 15 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said: The period from Christmas to the second week of Jan and then again at the end of January to mid Feb have had my attention for a while. I’ve had my fingers crossed that there’s no can kicking coming and it holds firm. EPS and GEFS have been pretty consistent in torching from December 17th through Christmas. What are you seeing that shows a flip? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Can we make that high a 1040 please? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Both overnight GFS runs show opportunities beginning next weekend. The concern is the surface maps. Canada is pretty much devoid of arctic air on the 06Z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 8, 2023 Author Share Posted December 8, 2023 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: EPS and GEFS have been pretty consistent in torching from December 17th through Christmas. What are you seeing that shows a flip? What part of from Christmas to the 2nd week of January is the 17th to Christmas? Sigh edit: sorry I’m grumpy and hangry this morning. There are several things that I see. I don’t have time right now to go over it, but I’ll give more details after work. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 37 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: What part of from Christmas to the 2nd week of January is the 17th to Christmas? Sigh 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 8, 2023 Author Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: I needed this giggle. Thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 We're waiting for the MJO to move into phase 8. Until then, torch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 This is not a torch. I'll take phase 7 for now. You do realize that we will be going into phase 8 during peak climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 20 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: This is not a torch. I'll take phase 7 for now. You do realize that we will be going into phase 8 during peak climo. Fair, torch is hyperbole and I'm optimistic on January FWIW. But this explains why the favorable window won't open until the very end of December at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 5 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said: What part of from Christmas to the 2nd week of January is the 17th to Christmas? Sigh Sorry I should’ve elaborated- 17th through the end of the run periods (which happened to be Christmas). I wasn’t questioning your statement I was saying it looks like the entire lower 48 will be AN from the 17th-on using the ensembles. Was simply curious what you saw beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Temps in Canada look better with afternoons runs for week of Christmas. This coincides with pattern change many have referenced. Probably not going to help us with next weekend and midweek storm afterwords but we’ll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 That +EPO is going absolutely bonkers and looks worryingly stable even well into January on the weeklies. Makes it way harder to get any cold air into North America. We're gonna need the PNA to do some heavy lifting. Hopefully we can get lucky towards peak Niño climo in February and actually get the Atlantic and Pacific to work together for what feels like the first time in eternity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Sorry I should’ve elaborated- 17th through the end of the run periods (which happened to be Christmas). I wasn’t questioning your statement I was saying it looks like the entire lower 48 will be AN from the 17th-on using the ensembles. Was simply curious what you saw beyond that. I know and I was super grumpy and hangry and read it wrong. My apologies sir. I believe the MJO will be entering phase 7 by mid month and phase 8 by the end of the month with 1-3 Jan into Feb. If we have to be in 4-6 with a strong Nino during the winter, I'd much rather have it in Nov-Dec. The -NAO should return by the first of the year as well and hopefully the long range is correct and it stays that way. The players should be on the field come Jan and we'll see where it goes, but I'm extremely hopeful and excited about how things should be unfolding for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 9, 2023 Author Share Posted December 9, 2023 3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: Temps in Canada look better with afternoons runs for week of Christmas. This coincides with pattern change many have referenced. Probably not going to help us with next weekend and midweek storm afterwords but we’ll see. That system at Christmas is what will set our table as we head into peak season At least that's my story and I'm sticking to it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Been trending colder the last couple of runs.... overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 We’ve been NAM’ed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: We’ve been NAM’ed Is there a better location outside of the mountains to live than Roxboro for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 54 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Is there a better location outside of the mountains to live than Roxboro for snow? Probably not in NC considering it is just under 1000ft in elevation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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