NorthHillsWx Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 16 hours ago, olafminesaw said: The first extreme drought since 2017 has been issued for some of NC's SW counties. Next Tuesday's system is looking promising for rainfall, especially for the mountains. it looks like a long duration rainfall which will help prevent runoff as well Latest GFS has trended the way of every other front this fall and it really dries up east of the mountains. Rainfall amounts of <1/2” pretty much for everyone in drought area and much of NC and upstate SC <1/4”. Canadian and EURO still look wet but definitely do not like the GFS splitting the energy over the area. I’ve seen that story play out at this range a time or 5 since September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Latest GFS has trended the way of every other front this fall and it really dries up east of the mountains. Rainfall amounts of <1/2” pretty much for everyone in drought area and much of NC and upstate SC <1/4”. Canadian and EURO still look wet but definitely do not like the GFS splitting the energy over the area. I’ve seen that story play out at this range a time or 5 since September Models have trended drier for sure. But the Euro ensembles have good agreement on .5-1.5" of rain. The GEFS is more all over the place and opens the door for the front to dry out entirely as you allude to. But there's a strong cluster in the .75-1" range. I think we can feel pretty confident in .5"+, which is not enough but a win relative to what we've gotten the past 6 weeks or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 A long way out but the EPS has had something the last 3 model runs around the 29/30 time period... snow perhaps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said: A long way out but the EPS has had something the last 3 model runs around the 29/30 time period... snow perhaps. An Interesting look at the end of the 12z Euro run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 19, 2023 Share Posted November 19, 2023 Starting to finally look like a wet period upcoming 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 13 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Starting to finally look like a wet period upcoming And not a minute too soon. Sauratown Mountain next to Pilot Mt and Hanging Rock State Park had a fire today. Pretty bad one at that. Not sure if they got it under control but at least there was minimal wind. It is CRUNCHY out there! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 20, 2023 Share Posted November 20, 2023 1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said: And not a minute too soon. Sauratown Mountain next to Pilot Mt and Hanging Rock State Park had a fire today. Pretty bad one at that. Not sure if they got it under control but at least there was minimal wind. It is CRUNCHY out there! Yeah we have an 1800 acre wildfire right along I-40 here in Haywood that is 0% contained. Hopefully the rain comes in on the heels of the freaking high wind we are supposed to get tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 NC statewide flizzard alert on 0z GFS for Tuesday 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Just for kicks and giggles, I present last night's Euro control 1 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 4 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Just for kicks and giggles, I present last night's Euro control For the win! Let's rock and roll in the snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 23, 2023 Author Share Posted November 23, 2023 10 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Just for kicks and giggles, I present last night's Euro control I was wondering if anyone noticed that thing of beauty 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 10 hours ago, yotaman said: For the win! Let's rock and roll in the snow. If that is actually all snowfall and not sleet or ZR, the 1.5-2” down here at SAV on that run would be the 2nd heaviest early Dec snow on record with only Dec 6th of 1740’s 4-5” exceeding it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 Beautiful 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 26, 2023 Share Posted November 26, 2023 Teens are attainable mid week 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 Activate rain shields 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 Activate rain shieldsCrazy! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Activate rain shields It's a bit of an outlier, but it does seem we will only have opportunities on 2-3 quick moving systems over the next 10 days. Some are promising however and it seems that rainfall is most likely to fall in the .75-1.75" range in that timeframe based on ensemble consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 Cataloochee Ski Area will open for the Winter 23/24 Season tomorrow morning at 9 AM! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 Lots of cold air building in Canada over the next 10-14 days...poised to move into the west it looks like Can't catch a break with the PNA, at least yet. But hope springs eternal when it is only 6 hours until the next run... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: It's a bit of an outlier, but it does seem we will only have opportunities on 2-3 quick moving systems over the next 10 days. Some are promising however and it seems that rainfall is most likely to fall in the .75-1.75" range in that timeframe based on ensemble consensus. Euro shows something similar. We are still in a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 The Euro Weeklies have been showing cold in the SE US during the first week of January ever since they reached that far. This cold is being supported well by a progged weak to very weak SPV, progs for a weak to moderate slow moving MJO phase 1 then (typically cold in Jan in SE), prog for a textbook +PNA/Aleutian Low (supported by phase 1 MJO combined with Nino climo), and general winter Nino climo. Today’s is about the coldest yet and is quite notable being that it’s a 101 member ensemble out 6 weeks: Combine the cold with this… Euro Weeklies precip anomaly probabilities for 1/1-8: Gulf/Miller A potential? This is a signature for that potential. Shoutout to @pcbjramong others regarding this. Just about all of the SE US is favored to be either NN or AN (no dry), which is significant for a cold period since they can easily be dry. This is where El Niño would likely be helping with moist, cold split flow: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: The Euro Weeklies have been showing cold in the SE US during the first week of January ever since they reached that far. This cold is being supported well by a progged weak to very weak SPV, progs for a weak to moderate slow moving MJO phase 1 then (typically cold in Jan in SE), prog for a textbook +PNA/Aleutian Low (supported by phase 1 MJO combined with Nino climo), and general winter Nino climo. Today’s is about the coldest yet and is quite notable being that it’s a 101 member end out 6 weeks: Combine the cold with this… Precip anomalies tendency for 1/1-8: Gulf/Miller A potential? This is a signature for that potential. Shoutout to @pcbjramong others regarding this. Just about all of the SE US NN or AN (no dry), which is significant for a cold period since they can easily be dry. This is where El Niño would likely be helping with moist, cold split flow: How about Christmas/the days leading up to it, looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Benjamn3 said: How about Christmas/the days leading up to it, looking? The week 12/25-1/1 is a transition from a bit warmer than normal the week before to the cold 1/1-8. So, changeable, leaning cold last few days of 2023. Similar El Niño favored precip pattern of near to wetter than normal with wettest near SE coast and no dry suggested. With MJO then progged to be in phases 8/1, 12/25-1/1 will have the chance to be a cold week, too, along with a shot at wintry precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 1 hour ago, GaWx said: The week 12/25-1/1 is a transition from a bit warmer than normal the week before to the cold 1/1-8. So, changeable, leaning cold last few days of 2023. Similar El Niño favored precip pattern of near to wetter than normal with wettest near SE coast and no dry suggested. With MJO then progged to be in phases 8/1, 12/25-1/1 will have the chance to be a cold week, too, along with a shot at wintry precip. My main hope is that it isn’t a torch. All I ask for these days is keep Xmas eve and day chilly. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 20 hours ago, Benjamn3 said: My main hope is that it isn’t a torch. All I ask for these days is keep Xmas eve and day chilly. Todays weather would’ve worked on Christmas Day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 29, 2023 Share Posted November 29, 2023 Reports of Next week’s warmth have been greatly exaggerated 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Possibly a biggie hitting the east coast next week. While it won’t mean much for us outside of the mountains, hopefully this can lay down a nice snow pack for a wedge to feed off of down the not so distant road. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 37 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Possibly a biggie hitting the east coast next week. While it won’t mean much for us outside of the mountains, hopefully this can lay down a nice snow pack for a wedge to feed off of down the not so distant road. Definitely not out of the question that the system could bring snow showers to the area, most likely just in the high elevations, but you never know with the cold air mass aloft. It will probably be too dry east of the mountains with that storm track though, after the frontal passage 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Our winter is the Iowa offense. Getting our punter out early and often 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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