kvegas-wx Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 2 hours ago, GaWx said: If the 12Z GEFS suite were to verify pretty closely, the SE would have a decent shot at one of the coldest Octobers of the last few decades. Let’s say possibly 90% percentile cold in relation to the last 30 years or so. Going to be interesting to see if this model is onto something. Great, so we have a strong opportunity at 38° and rain a few times later in the month. And then guess what? We get to Jan/Feb and we get °38 and rain again in a mild winter. Give me Indian summers in October. I'll save my below averages for Jan-Mar please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 10 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Great, so we have a strong opportunity at 38° and rain a few times later in the month. And then guess what? We get to Jan/Feb and we get °38 and rain again in a mild winter. Give me Indian summers in October. I'll save my below averages for Jan-Mar please. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 8 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Great, so we have a strong opportunity at 38° and rain a few times later in the month. And then guess what? We get to Jan/Feb and we get °38 and rain again in a mild winter. Give me Indian summers in October. I'll save my below averages for Jan-Mar please. I look at it differently. We all have different takes, preferences, etc. Here’s mine: 1. I prefer BN in all seasons. 2. I don’t believe so much in the idea of “saving” BN as in some cases it is actually the opposite: there’s a correlation and thus BN may predict subsequent BN. 3. During El Niño in the SE, there’s evidence of a partial correlation between a BN Oct and a BN DJF. Check out these 9 KSAV BN (more than 2 BN) Nino Octobers for example: - 1876, 1885, 1930, 1957, 1958, 1976, 1977, 1987, 2006 Of these nine, seven (78%) of the subsequent winters were BN at KSAV: 1876-7, 1885-6, 1930-1, 1957-8, 1976-7, 1977-8, 1987-8 The other two (22%), 1958-9 and 2006-7, were NN None (0%) were AN. These 11 El Niño Octs were AN at KSAV -1884, 1911, 1918, 1919, 1939, 1941, 1951, 1969, 1986, 2002, 2018 Subsequent winters: 3 (27%) BN: 1939-40, 1969-70, 2002-3 6 (55%) NN: 1884-5, 1911-2, 1918-9, 1919-20, 1941-2, 1986-7 2 (18%) AN: 1951-2, 2018-9 So after BN Octs El Niño winters were 78% BN, 22% NN, and 0% AN. Thus, BN El Niño winters have been favored after BN Octobers. So after AN Octs El Niño winters were 27% BN, 55% NN, and 18% AN. Thus, NN El Niño winters have been favored over each of the other categories after AN Octobers. All 7 El Nino Octobers colder than 65F were followed by BN winters. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 5, 2023 Author Share Posted October 5, 2023 I look for nor’easters in October. I honestly have no idea what the actual correlation is, but Octobers with nor’easters seem to produce memorable winters. At least that’s what my winter loving heart says 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 To get a BN October, we’ll likely need a BN last week. As of now, that’s not being suggested by the longer term models. Hopefully that will change and there’s still plenty of time since that’s in week 3, easily far enough out for the models to be off. Fingers crossed as a BN Oct during El Niño is partially correlated to a BN winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 Hey y'all, you know I have been around the form for years now (Orangeburgwx), but this gal has some exciting news to share!This will be my last few months here full time in the Southeastern States board seeing as how I am moving to Vermont at the end of the year. I will still drop in from time to time on the banter form to check in since I care about you all, and good luck in Jan/Feb.Also, the 6z GFS is such a fucking tease... Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 20 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Hey y'all, you know I have been around the form for years now (Orangeburgwx), but this gal has some exciting news to share! This will be my last few months here full time in the Southeastern States board seeing as how I am moving to Vermont at the end of the year. I will still drop in from time to time on the banter form to check in since I care about you all, and good luck in Jan/Feb. Also, the 6z GFS is such a fucking tease... Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk I'm jealous! About the snow yes. But mostly the hiking. By all accounts stunning scenery around every corner out that way. Going to miss you're posts, but I know you will pop in for the big blizzard we get right after your move 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 The new Euro weeklies are the coldest yet for October overall in the E US with the all important last week of Oct BN for the first time on any run (see image below)! This is what’s needed to nearly insure a BN Oct in the E US. If this were to verify, this wouldn’t just be significant for chilly Oct prospects. More interestingly, there’s a partial correlation of BN E US Octs and BN E US winters during El Niño. New Euro weekly for 10/23-30 is BN E/SE US for first time: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 Gulf Cold 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 4 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Gulf Cold I was a senior in college in 87/88 and October was really cold in the upstate. I think GW posted a correlation between BN October’s in EN and wintery precip. I remember many days going to lunch with temps in the low to mid 50s. We had snow flurries on Halloween and big snow in January. 86/87 was a EN year too but don’t remember October being cold. Of course JFM were really good that year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 Are you ready for highs in the 40s? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 23 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Are you ready for highs in the 40s? I’d love to see it that cold in some of the SE! But did you mean to post the warmer 150 hour instead? Although the next chilly snap is still looking impressive, this GFS run isn’t calling for SE highs as low as the 40s outside of the mountains. It is more like mid 50s to mid 60s for that and nearby days, which itself would be great. Now toward end of month could be a different story in the extreme since it is so far out. And more and more evidence on the models is supporting another chilly shot then! This would also be good news from the perspective of BN full Octobers partially correlating to BN winters during El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 3 hours ago, DeepSouthSnowless said: That's at 7 pm below is 1pm. Actually that's 8pm. We're still in daylight savings time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 4 hours ago, DeepSouthSnowless said: That's at 7 pm below is 1pm. My bad. Got my time conversion off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Scandinavian blocking 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 27 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Scandinavian blocking That plus the Vancoverish ridge and western Alaskan trough 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 Frost and freeze risks next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 11, 2023 Share Posted October 11, 2023 10 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Scandinavian blocking There's a parade of recurving typhoons in the Pacific. I'd have to believe that will reinforce blocking heading into late October (or at least that's the correlation that's been mentioned in the past) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Rather chilly late October 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 Up to Veterans Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 Fallish week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Next two weeks, widespread frosts on the pumpkin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 26 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Next two weeks, widespread frosts on the pumpkin In between those cold periods, a warmup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 20s before Halloween? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: 20s before Halloween? Euro shows a strong SE Ridge through the next 10 days probably longer. Most winter outlooks I have seen have a warm December and possibly flipping in January or February to colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Pretty good agreement that we may see a trough develop at the end of the month.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/2023-24-us-winter-outlook-wetter-south-warmer-north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 Also from NWS... Winter Forecasting Tools: Here’s What’s New at NOAA this Year This winter, NOAA will implement a series of upgrades and improvements. In November, the experimental Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (PWSSI) will become operational. The product will enhance communication with external partners, media, and the general public by graphically depicting the likelihood of potential societal impacts due to expected winter hazards over a 7-day period. This is complemented by a version of the Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) based on the official National Weather Service forecast of the most likely conditions over the next three days. NOAA’s Weather Prediction and Climate Prediction Centers will continue to use Winter Key Messages, which highlight the agency’s most essential information for upcoming winter weather, including extreme cold and heavy snow potential. These can be found under “Top Stories” on the Weather Prediction Center’s and Climate Prediction Center’s websites. This winter, NOAA will complete its implementation of Impact-Based Warning Tags for Snow Squall Warnings. Snow Squall Warnings are warnings issued for short duration intense bursts of snow and wind leading to whiteout visibility and possible flash freezes on roads. To distinguish high-impact snow squalls, the National Weather Service will issue impact-based Snow Squall Warnings using the “Significant” tag for events that pose a substantial threat to safe travel. Wireless Emergency Alerts, which are emergency messages sent by authorized government alerting authorities through wireless carriers, will be limited to only high-impact Snow Squall Warnings with the Snow Squall Impact Tag of “Significant.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 And so begins the Polar Vortex hysteria https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-polar-vortex-disruption-event-cold-weather-pattern-forecast-canada-united-states-fa/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: And so begins the Polar Vortex hysteria https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-polar-vortex-disruption-event-cold-weather-pattern-forecast-canada-united-states-fa/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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