olafminesaw Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 Enhanced risk for most tommorow, primarily wind driven. Since the enhanced category was introduced in 2015, RAH hasn't been under one during the month of August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 On 8/6/2023 at 6:38 PM, olafminesaw said: Enhanced risk for most tommorow, primarily wind driven. Since the enhanced category was introduced in 2015, RAH hasn't been under one during the month of August Expand I was reading on FB that some models are showing no storms while others are showing a good outbreak of severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 8, 2023 Share Posted August 8, 2023 On 8/6/2023 at 6:38 PM, olafminesaw said: Enhanced risk for most tommorow, primarily wind driven. Since the enhanced category was introduced in 2015, RAH hasn't been under one during the month of August Expand One of the worst wind storms I can remember since I moved to my current neighborhood 5 years ago. Winds definitely in the 60 mph range, frequent, close lightning, and a lot of trees/branches down. Lots of power outages around the neighborhood, we got lucky and ours came back on last night. Only 0.73” of rain but it was limited only by duration, not intensity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Don't sleep on tomorrow either. Could be another unusually strong severe event for this time of year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 On 8/9/2023 at 12:34 PM, eyewall said: Don't sleep on tomorrow either. Could be another unusually strong severe event for this time of year. Expand Seems like timing is the big question. May move through too early in the day. Parameters aren't as impressive either way, but a nice line of storms regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 On 8/9/2023 at 1:17 PM, olafminesaw said: Seems like timing is the big question. May move through too early in the day. Parameters aren't as impressive either way, but a nice line of storms regardless. Expand There could be the MCS in the morning and then the main round of severe in the afternoon/evening. MHX discussion is quite bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 On 8/9/2023 at 2:17 PM, eyewall said: There could be the MCS in the morning and then the main round of severe in the afternoon/evening. MHX discussion is quite bullish. Expand Current CAMs seem to suggest the morning MCS will be the main event (strong to borderline severe storms), with some scattered strong storms behind it. Usually these large MCS systems do put a damper on several storms later in the day, even if they clear out by mid morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 7 AM discussion update from ILM!! && .UPDATE... Appalachia is already sinking its teeth into this MCS. The typical bowing across north Georgia is occurring, with the northern segment heading more to the east, and the southern segment over metro Atlanta moving more towards the SSE. How far this thing splits gets tricky. The southern segment might sink so far south that doesn`t really touch the local forecast area. The northern segment, as it surges east, will be close. Current trends look to clip some of the northern portions of the SC Pee Dee region in a couple hours, but time will tell. The most frustrating part yet is that high-resolution guidance has backed off considerably on the convection chances and coverage today. With guidance and radar trends, tapered the rain chances off a bit for the morning, at least initially. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 The current radar though seems to show that it did not split but it looked like it was splitting. this current version of the MCS is not in the HRRR so, we will have to see what it outputs next with this information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 On 8/9/2023 at 8:13 PM, olafminesaw said: Current CAMs seem to suggest the morning MCS will be the main event (strong to borderline severe storms), with some scattered strong storms behind it. Usually these large MCS systems do put a damper on several storms later in the day, even if they clear out by mid morning. Expand Yeah it is looking like shite after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 HRRR 12z and 18z from yesterday did depict this form of activity, although the storm strength extended more northward for the duration!! Here is the water vapor overview; there was a lot of lightning here in Brunswick county so it makes sense to see there are some big lows active to which this convection connects!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted August 13, 2023 Share Posted August 13, 2023 https://x.com/pwmwxme/status/1690699743440113665?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 https://x.com/empirewx/status/1691839151526555849?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 18, 2023 Share Posted August 18, 2023 Climo is beginning to work in our favor, about 2/3 of the time the prior two weeks are hotter than the upcoming two weeks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Nice +PNA digging in. Seems to be El Nino related. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 The Euro and GFS both have temps over 100 on Friday at GSO (102 and 105). This would be the first 100 degree day since 2012 and the latest in the season since 1954. On average GSO reaches 100 about once every 5-10 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 23, 2023 Author Share Posted August 23, 2023 I certainly hope this is the last heatwave we see. Football starts in a weekish and there’s nothing better than football, fire and food 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 Will we reach 100 on Friday? NWS doesn't think we quite get there. The EURO, GFS and (long range) HRRR are all above 100, with the GFS hottest at 105. The UKMET, ICON, and NAM are all in the mid to upper 90s. I am inclined to believe the GFS is too hot of course, but reaching 100 remains at least a realistic possibility. Thankfully a relatively dry heat thanks to mountain downsloping, with dew points in the low 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 10:58 AM, olafminesaw said: Will we reach 100 on Friday? NWS doesn't think we quite get there. The EURO, GFS and (long range) HRRR are all above 100, with the GFS hottest at 105. The UKMET, ICON, and NAM are all in the mid to upper 90s. I am inclined to believe the GFS is too hot of course, but reaching 100 remains at least a realistic possibility. Thankfully a relatively dry heat thanks to mountain downsloping, with dew points in the low 60s. Expand I am skeptical, but this is an anomalous heat ridge. Thankfully, short-lived. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/23/2023 at 12:25 PM, buckeyefan1 said: I certainly hope this is the last heatwave we see. Football starts in a weekish and there’s nothing better than football, fire and food Expand The people in Maui want to talk to you about the fire part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 24, 2023 Author Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 12:54 PM, Chuck said: The people in Maui want to talk to you about the fire part. Expand Yes, because I was talking about having a fire caused by downed power lines with 80+mph winds But you knew that already. Good talk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 1:53 PM, buckeyefan1 said: Yes, because I was talking about having a fire caused by downed power lines with 80+mph winds But you knew that already. Good talk. Expand Yep, obvious huge difference between controlled fire and a wild fire! Meanwhile, per model consensus, parts of the SE US are quite possibly going to be threatened (W FL)/affected by a new TC forecasted to start forming in the NW Caribbean or SE GOM this weekend and then moving NE across FL and/or further up into the SE Tue-Wed. Folks should keep an eye on this just in case although I have to go all of the way back to storm #6 of 1880 to find an analog of this in late Aug or early Sep during El Niño: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 4:57 PM, GaWx said: Yep, obvious huge difference between controlled fire and a wild fire! Meanwhile, per model consensus, parts of the SE US are quite possibly going to be threatened (W FL)/affected by a new TC forecasted to start forming in the NW Caribbean or SE GOM this weekend and then moving NE across FL and/or further up into the SE Tue-Wed. Folks should keep an eye on this just in case although I have to go all of the way back to storm #6 of 1880 to find an analog of this in late Aug or early Sep during El Niño: Expand Of course it’s a historic anomaly. I’ll be at Myrtle Beach Saturday - Wednesday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 On 8/23/2023 at 12:25 PM, buckeyefan1 said: I certainly hope this is the last heatwave we see. Football starts in a weekish and there’s nothing better than football, fire and food Expand 50's showing up for lows in the RDU area late next week. Maybe... maybe I can actually enjoy an Octoberfest with some October-ish temps. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 8:08 PM, marsman said: 50's showing up for lows in the RDU area late next week. Maybe... maybe I can actually enjoy an Octoberfest with some October-ish temps. Expand Oh I can't wait! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 On 8/25/2023 at 3:33 AM, eyewall said: Oh I can't wait! Expand Me too. Will be in PA/NY next week and will enjoy this trof. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 25, 2023 Share Posted August 25, 2023 On 8/24/2023 at 8:08 PM, marsman said: 50's showing up for lows in the RDU area late next week. Maybe... maybe I can actually enjoy an Octoberfest with some October-ish temps. Expand Just got back from western Montana and I can confirm that 49° mornings are well worth the wait. Bring it on! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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