JoshM Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Moonhowl said: For ice skating? I'll get the zamboni ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Cold springs have become the norm over the last few years and this year looks no different. Silver lining is it keeps the bugs and humidity at bay a little longer but the fairways take longer to turn green and pool stays cold until the end of June. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 7 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: Cold springs have become the norm over the last few years and this year looks no different. Silver lining is it keeps the bugs and humidity at bay a little longer but the fairways take longer to turn green and pool stays cold until the end of June. March, specifically, was actually AN in 2020-22. The last ones BN were in 2019 and 2018, with 2018 similarly to 2023 influenced to colder by a major SSW the prior month. Despite the very cold mid month thanks to the Feb SSW/very weak SPV, March of 2023 appears to be headed to pretty close to normal rather than solidly BN because the first 10 days overall were so warm. In 2018, it turned colder a bit earlier due partially to that SSW being about 4 days earlier and less time needed to overcome the strong -PNA that had been in place. This time it took til 3 weeks after the major SSW, a bit longer than the more typical 10-14 days, again thanks to the stubborn strong -PNA that didn't give up easily. It remains to be seen whether or not a particular location's March will be colder than Feb as it will be close. But I expect at least some to be colder. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 I'm throwing in the towel. It's over folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmoon Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 28 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: I'm throwing in the towel. It's over folks. Yeah it's been a disaster. Only my second snowless winter in 42 years. Pitiful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 I see a bunch of mid 70s to mid 80s on my 384 hour GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 At this point I have moved off of cold weather wishing to hoping it doesn't get too hot before the end of May. Avoiding frosts and freezes are a good thing now that everything is starting to bloom and I want to see how long I can get by before I have to set my summer run of A/C being on 24/7. If I can avoid that until the near end of May, it's a win. Living in the Columbia SC, hot zone, summer heat looms large just over the horizon. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 The new Euro weekly for 4/3-10 (Masters time) has switched from a pretty strong cold signal to a neutral signal. Actually, all of the weeks have a neutral signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 On this date 40 years ago, KATL received 7.9" of a very wet snow from a Miller A GOM low near the tail end of the very strong El Niño of 1982-3. The high and low that day were 47/32 with the high just after midnight preceding the snow. Nowhere near that much had been expected due to the borderline temperatures. This 7.9" is the 3rd heaviest on record in Atlanta with only late January of 1940's 8.3" at the airport (10" downtown) and mid January of 1893's 9.6" (downtown) exceeding this. For those not familiar, the airport is ~10 miles south of downtown. During the 11 days prior, KATL's lowest was 32 (and that was 11 days prior) while highs were all 51-73. We even got a trace of sleet way down here from this, our second latest wintry precip on record. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 More on 1982-3: In the SE, DJF 1982-3 temperatures averaged near normal. KATL had 10.3" that season from a highly unusual four different events. No season's snowfall has exceeded that there since but there was heavier prior, including 1935-6 and the historic 1894-5. To top that off, Raleigh had 1.8" on April 18th! That was and still is their latest measurable on record, with 1989's April 11th second latest. Those are the only two measurable April events there during the last 100 years. But the prior 40 years had four Aprils with measurable at Raleigh. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 26, 2023 Share Posted March 26, 2023 On 3/17/2023 at 1:33 PM, GaWx said: Sometimes the CMC typically being the coldest of the models on good radiational cooling nights pays off. But overall, it is well known that this model suffers from a significant cold bias. Regarding today's 12Z, it has low 20s lows in much of the Atlanta suburbs for 3/20 and 3/21 (I'll call it ~21 on 3/20 and ~23 on 3/21) per the Tropical Tidbits maps. What do other models show for 3/20 and 3/21 lows for the Atlanta suburbs? - GFS (12Z) 30 and 35 - ICON (12Z) upper 20s and 35 - UKMET (12Z): upper 20s and low 30s - Euro (0Z): upper 20s and low 30s So, in typical CMC fashion on good radiational nights, it has lows significantly colder than the other major models. On 3/20, it has ~21 vs ~28-30 on the other four. On 3/21, it has ~23 vs ~32-35 on the other four. I'll use the average of the NWS' lows for Marietta, NE Atlanta, and W Atlanta as representation for the average suburb low and see how the models end up doing. For the prior cold snap, the coldest these 3 stations averaged for a low was 28 on 3/15. So, the CMC is calling for this next airmass' coldest to be a whopping 7 colder (on 3/20) than 3/15 vs the other models being about the same on 3/20 as 3/15. I plan to post the verifications regarding 3/20-1 afterward. So how did the cold CMC end up doing in comparison to the not as cold other models in the Atlanta suburbs for lows on 3/20-1? Here are the actual lows: March 20: Marietta 26, West Atlanta 27, NE Atlanta 25; so average was 26 March 21: Marietta 29, West Atlanta 28, NE Atlanta 28; so average was 28 rounded For March 20, the CMC predicted 21 while the others were 28-30 (GFS was at 30). For March 21, the CMC was at 23 vs 32-35 for the others. So, as expected, the CMC was quite a bit too cold (5 both nights). However, the others were 2-4 too warm on 3/20 and 4-7 too warm on 3/21. So, none of the models did all that great with their predictions 3-4 days before although the CMC was predictably too cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted March 26, 2023 Author Share Posted March 26, 2023 On 3/23/2023 at 11:42 PM, GaWx said: The new Euro weekly for 4/3-10 (Masters time) has switched from a pretty strong cold signal to a neutral signal. Actually, all of the weeks have a neutral signal. I would like to request the following week stay with a neutral signal as I'm thinking about taking a few days off work to play at my favorite places and find some new ones 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 26, 2023 Share Posted March 26, 2023 5 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said: I would like to request the following week stay with a neutral signal as I'm thinking about taking a few days off work to play at my favorite places and find some new ones The last few days of modeling has suggested to me fwiw no signs of unusual cold the next two weeks at least. Instead, it is suggesting to me more typical ups and downs with the % of time AN probably a bit higher than the % of time BN, especially down here. I'd prefer more BN overall but that's not what I'm seeing. AN is ok with me if the dewpoints are low enough...say mid 50s or lower. I mean a high of, say, 85 with a dewpoint of 52 along with a nice breeze and sunshine (like we had here for a couple of days a few days ago) feels good to me, especially if I'm in shorts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted March 26, 2023 Share Posted March 26, 2023 3 hours ago, GaWx said: The last few days of modeling has suggested to me fwiw no signs of unusual cold the next two weeks at least. Instead, it is suggesting to me more typical ups and downs with the % of time AN probably a bit higher than the % of time BN, especially down here. I'd prefer more BN overall but that's not what I'm seeing. AN is ok with me if the dewpoints are low enough...say mid 50s or lower. I mean a high of, say, 85 with a dewpoint of 52 along with a nice breeze and sunshine (like we had here for a couple of days a few days ago) feels good to me, especially if I'm in shorts. Now that GaWx is saying this, winter really is all over. Here's to the hope for a relatively normal not broiling spring. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted March 28, 2023 Share Posted March 28, 2023 Someone reminded me today that it was the anniversary of the March 28, 1984 Carolinas Tornado outbreak. I was on the 4th floor of a dorm room in Rock Hill. The thing I remember distinctly about that day was coming out of class in the afternoon and it was so hot and humid I could hardly breath. It was one of the worst outbreaks ever in this region. https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar281984EventReview 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 15 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: Someone reminded me today that it was the anniversary of the March 28, 1984 Carolinas Tornado outbreak. I was on the 4th floor of a dorm room in Rock Hill. The thing I remember distinctly about that day was coming out of class in the afternoon and it was so hot and humid I could hardly breath. It was one of the worst outbreaks ever in this region. https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar281984EventReview That is the first I have ever heard of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 Worst winter ever. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 14 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said: Worst winter ever. You got that right. I really can't get much worse than what we just went through as far as that goes. I am focused on severe now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 I'm becoming a little concerned about drought developing, especially in the Lee of the Apps and piedmont. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtmitch1 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Does anyone have any updates on tomorrow's severe chances? I have a baseball tournament in Wake Forrest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, jtmitch1 said: Does anyone have any updates on tomorrow's severe chances? I have a baseball tournament in Wake Forrest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 March in the SE from @pcbjr in Gainesville to @Coach McGuirkin SE VA and about all places in between will end up slightly warmer than Feb and slightly warmer than normal. Despite the impressively cold mid-month (coldest since January in many places and even late December in a few places) induced mainly by the mid Feb major SSW along with an even weaker SPV the last days of Feb, this wasn't able to overcome the very warm first week in combination with mild dominating much of the late month. It took 3 weeks from the major SSW for it to finally get cold in the SE. Although warmth during and just after an SSW is favored/common (as shown by the image I posted), cold from a fully downward propagating weakened SPV (manifested by a solid -AO/-NAO) more typically takes only ~10-14 days to arrive in the SE as opposed to 21 days. The impressive AO/NAO drop started within 10-14 days, but the cold lagged behind. The strong -PNA/unfavorable Pacific/SE ridge likely was the main reason for the delay. So, although the cold that we did get was quite impressive, it wasn't as long in duration as it could have been without the very stubborn Pacific that first had to be overcome. Furthermore, an even stronger -PNA quickly returned for late month. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 As has been previously mentioned, looks like a transition to El Nino by middle or end of summer. Would much prefer neutral enso as we head into fall but will gladly say goodbye to Nina! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 36 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: As has been previously mentioned, looks like a transition to El Nino by middle or end of summer. Would much prefer neutral enso as we head into fall but will gladly say goodbye to Nina! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf I'm also expecting El Nino and I'd welcome it with open arms as they in the SE overall average a fair bit colder than La Niña and even somewhat colder than neutral due to the tendency for a higher PNA working in concert with a typically more active subtropical jet. This means that the stubborn SE ridge is usually weaker during El Niño. El Niño right after La Niña can really shake up the pattern and help lead to a much colder winter. Examples: 1904-5, 1911-2, 1939-40, 1957-8, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1976-7, and 2009-10. But we'll have to see about the SER as the near record warm western equatorial Pacific and strong AMO have been supporting it. The major El Niño forecasting failure year (including for me) of 2017 gives me pause and thus prevents me from getting overconfident about it returning. This was a post I made yesterday in the main ENSO thread: "Currently, 14 of 16 dynamic models (88%) are predicting an oncoming El Niño. How does this stack up to prior March predictions? I can see them going back to 2005 at the link below. That gives us a decent sample size of 19 years. - This March's 88% is 3rd highest of all 19 and 2nd highest of the 14 not already El Niño. That's strong support for an upcoming El Niño. - 2015 was at 94%, but that was already El Niño unlike now. Regardless, the models did very well in not only calling for El Niño to continue but for it to strengthen. - The other one at 94% was the already noted 2017, which turned out to be by far the worst failure of the 19 being that it ended up La Niña. - What % of models were predicting El Niño before other El Niños that materialized? - 2018: only 46% though it was still La Niña then making it challenging for the models. - 2014: 69%, a good job since ENSO was still cold neutral at the time - 2009: 60%, a good job since ENSO was still La Niña at the time - 2006: 67%, a good job since ENSO was still La Niña at the time So, this also reiterates that 2023 being up at 88% is strong support for El Niño. The main inconsistency is 2017. ----------------- Monthly ENSO model predictions back to 2005: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ " 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 More on El Niños in the SE that quickly follow La Niñas: These El Niño winters that quickly followed La Nina were significantly colder in the SE US than the prior winter: 1876-7 (cold), 1880-1 (cold), 1904-5 (very cold), 1911-2 (cold), 1925-6 (normal), 1939-40 (very cold), 1957-8 (cold), 1965-6 (cold), 1972-3 (normal), 1976-7 (very cold), 2009-10 (very cold) These weren't: - 1887-8 was slightly warmer than 1886-7 and near normal - 1918-9 was much warmer than 1917-8 and was near normal. It followed the very cold 1917-8, which was one of the coldest La Niña winters on record - 2006-7 was warmer than 2005-6 and warmer than normal - 2018-9 was warmer than 2017-8 and warmer than normal --------- Tally: - 11 of 15 were significantly colder than the prior winter - 9 of 15 were cold to very cold - 4 of 15 were near normal - 2 of 15 were warmer than normal, 2 of the 3 most recent cases Conclusion: As one who prefers a cold winter, I'd take my chances with El Niño this winter on a normal or colder winter based on the above history despite two of the three most recent cases being warmer than normal, which would keep from betting heavily on it. I certainly would prefer it over other ENSO! Keep in mind that four of these 15 were historically cold. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 5 hours ago, GaWx said: More on El Niños in the SE that quickly follow La Niñas: These El Niño winters that quickly followed La Nina were significantly colder in the SE US than the prior winter: 1876-7 (cold), 1880-1 (cold), 1904-5 (very cold), 1911-2 (cold), 1925-6 (normal), 1939-40 (very cold), 1957-8 (cold), 1965-6 (cold), 1972-3 (normal), 1976-7 (very cold), 2009-10 (very cold) These weren't: - 1887-8 was slightly warmer than 1886-7 and near normal - 1918-9 was much warmer than 1917-8 and was near normal. It followed the very cold 1917-8, which was one of the coldest La Niña winters on record - 2006-7 was warmer than 2005-6 and warmer than normal - 2018-9 was warmer than 2017-8 and warmer than normal --------- Tally: - 11 of 15 were significantly colder than the prior winter - 9 of 15 were cold to very cold - 4 of 15 were near normal - 2 of 15 were warmer than normal, the most recent cases Conclusion: As one who prefers a cold winter, I'd take my chances with El Niño this winter on a normal or colder winter based on the above history despite the two most recent cases being warmer than normal, which would keep from betting heavily on it. I certainly would prefer it over other ENSO! Keep in mind that four of these 15 were historically cold. If next year is warmer than this year we might as well call it extended spring. Trees will be budding in January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 If we get another repeat of this shit winter, I'll seriously consider moving to Minnesota. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Based on the last couple of days of model runs, here are some thoughts: - Warm 4/4-6 in SE - Masters/CAD areas: warmest day of tournament Thu; much cooler due to CAD is becoming more likely Fri-Sat; looks like a wet tourney as every day has threat of rain, especially Fri-Sat - More speculative because further out but subsequent Canadian high probably brings in BN/dry period 4/11-13. Frosts possible (mid to upper 30s especially northern areas??), especially northern areas on 4/13. Coldest lows of the month to date in much of SE are being hinted at for 4/12-13, but nothing out of the ordinary for a decent mid April Canadian high. No freezes indicated outside of mountains. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted April 2, 2023 Share Posted April 2, 2023 GFS showing a hard freeze April 10-14. I was dreading another cold snap since I already planted my tomatoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 2, 2023 Share Posted April 2, 2023 The 6Z GFS for the record is the coldest run yet in GA for 4/12 and the coldest since 3/22 there. It has a light freeze all the way down to some of the N and W suburbs of Atlanta as well as upper 30s to south of the Columbus-Macon-Augusta corridor and low 40s to Savannah and Valdosta. Most of the non coastal Carolinas get down into the 30s then. I'm assuming this will end up as a too cold run by at least several degrees, at least in GA since it is the coldest yet there and it is way out at day 10, but the signal for the coldest in the SE since 3/22 is getting stronger and will be interesting to follow. Edit: At 12Z on 4/12, this run is the coldest yet at 850 mb with -10C down to the NC/VA border and 0C down to just below Jacksonville. These are some 14-16 C BN in much of the SE. Edit: 12Z GFS is nowhere near as cold as 6Z in GA (as much as 11 warmer) and not as cold anywhere in the SE on 4/12. Not surprising due to how cold was the 6Z Edit: After 13 GFS runs in a row with a cold shot during 4/11-13, the 0Z 4/3 run says, "what cold shot?". Wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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