KChuck Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 11 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: You couldn't be more wrong. I actually look forward to spring weather every year. My daughters play softball on the H.S and middle school teams, as well as travel. So I'm at the ball field everynight and almost every Saturday. My business picks up during spring and does well during the summer and fall. So I look forward to warm weather for the obvious reasons mentioned. I'll actually pass on the low of 22 we has this morning, as well as the 20s forecasted for this weekend. I concur. I've got a Keifer pear tree that is in its third year. I would love to get some actual pears off of it but the last two years the frosts and hard freezes have claimed what tried to grow. Same with my Concord grape vines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 I love the annual morality debate between those wanting it to be warm and those wanting to hang onto cold in spring 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 Man that threat disappeared quicker than Arizonas tournament run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 Indeed, after the GFS had a good number of runs (in addition to the 12Z 3/15 JMA for 3/19-20 and a couple of teases by the CMC) with a widespread multi-inch SE snowstorm in parts of N GA, NW SC, and much of NC 3/21-2, no model is now showing anything close to a significant wintry threat in the SE. The GFS runs with the most widespread multi-inch snow (they're still on Tropical Tidbits) were these runs: 3/11 6Z, 3/12 12Z, 3/13 6Z, and 3/14 6Z/12Z. Actually, practically all of the GFS runs from 3/10 12Z through 3/15 6Z had multi-inch snow in some non-mountainous locations before abruptly ending that with the 3/15 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 Sometimes the CMC typically being the coldest of the models on good radiational cooling nights pays off. But overall, it is well known that this model suffers from a significant cold bias. Regarding today's 12Z, it has low 20s lows in much of the Atlanta suburbs for 3/20 and 3/21 (I'll call it ~21 on 3/20 and ~23 on 3/21) per the Tropical Tidbits maps. What do other models show for 3/20 and 3/21 lows for the Atlanta suburbs? - GFS (12Z) 30 and 35 - ICON (12Z) upper 20s and 35 - UKMET (12Z): upper 20s and low 30s - Euro (0Z): upper 20s and low 30s So, in typical CMC fashion on good radiational nights, it has lows significantly colder than the other major models. On 3/20, it has ~21 vs ~28-30 on the other four. On 3/21, it has ~23 vs ~32-35 on the other four. I'll use the average of the NWS' lows for Marietta, NE Atlanta, and W Atlanta as representation for the average suburb low and see how the models end up doing. For the prior cold snap, the coldest these 3 stations averaged for a low was 28 on 3/15. So, the CMC is calling for this next airmass' coldest to be a whopping 7 colder (on 3/20) than 3/15 vs the other models being about the same on 3/20 as 3/15. I plan to post the verifications regarding 3/20-1 afterward. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 GFS has mid 80s for next Friday in C and ENC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: I love the annual morality debate between those wanting it to be warm and those wanting to hang onto cold in spring Before DST root for cold in case of snow. Then root for warmth until Mother's day when we root for cooler than average temps until Halloween. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 49 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: GFS has mid 80s for next Friday in C and ENC Sweet! Ready to get my boat out on the water! Gotta find the good in every season! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 17, 2023 Share Posted March 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Snow dog said: Sweet! Ready to get my boat out on the water! Gotta find the good in every season! Well there was no good for our winter season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 With a low of 27 to a high of 80 forecast this week it's a typical messed up winter for the 00's so far. 8.4 to open the season, and 27 near the close, with spring in between. It just ain't right. I've lived a long time, and seen a lot of winters, and this one just ain't right, lol. Last time I got in a real good frozen street sledding was in 05, and it's been so long, I'm not sure I could get up from the sled, if I managed to get down there now. Thanks a lot, climo, you and your geologic time. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 16 hours ago, dsaur said: With a low of 27 to a high of 80 forecast this week it's a typical messed up winter for the 00's so far. 8.4 to open the season, and 27 near the close, with spring in between. It just ain't right. I've lived a long time, and seen a lot of winters, and this one just ain't right, lol. Last time I got in a real good frozen street sledding was in 05, and it's been so long, I'm not sure I could get up from the sled, if I managed to get down there now. Thanks a lot, climo, you and your geologic time. Now the NWS and the system to the sw are mocking me. A forecast low of 28 tonight, fully in clouds now, and 50 at 6pm, with a lot of precip in MIss, some in Ala, and a bunch sw of Miss. all headed toward me. So if one speeds up and the other slows down, I could could get some glory. Guess which one is probably going to speed up, or dissipate, and which is likely to slow down?? And even if Santa should suddenly appear, the outcome would probably be the same, but I'm drunk on hopium so I'll keep an eye on it all, lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 After the prior impressive one, the second Canadian airmass is even more impressive in Atlanta. Tomorrow's high is progged to be 45 (with full sunshine!), which would be the coldest since the 45 of way back on January 14! There are 3 freezes on the way, with high 20s forecasted to be the coldest at Hartsfield the next two nights. Anything 28 or lower would be their coldest since 12/26! Let's go! You don't often get -15C at 850 in TN in mid March, but this may occur tomorrow at 12Z. Edit for 3AM at KATL: it is down to 41. But with only 5 more hours of cooling time, I don't know that there will be enough time to get down to the forecasted 28. Actually, 24 hours ago it was already down to 40. But the dewpoint then was still up at 32 vs the current way down to 19. We'll see if KATL makes it as a secondary cold front came through recently and cooling may accelerate with clearing skies. Nashville is now down to 27. Huntsville is 32, Chattanooga is 33, and Rome is 37 (all with clear skies). Regardless, Sun night will probably be colder if it doesn't get to the upper 20s later tonight. Edit: @dsaurI would have loved for you to get a pellet or three but it was way too dry for anything to get to the ground. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Still looking like mid-80s by end of the week with sunset after 7:30. Welcome to spring! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 4 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Still looking like mid-80s by end of the week with sunset after 7:30. Welcome to spring! These wild swings within a few days are what makes the non-summer and especially winter months much more interesting to me as regards forecasting than the doldrums of summer. KATL ended up with a low above the forecasted high 20s, 31. Tonight should be colder there and in most of the SE, the coldest of the month to date in much of the SE although probably not here and nearby. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 37 minutes ago, GaWx said: These wild swings within a few days are what makes the non-summer and especially winter months much more interesting to me as regards forecasting than the doldrums of summer. KATL ended up with a low above the forecasted high 20s, 31. Tonight should be colder there and in most of the SE, the coldest of the month to date in much of the SE although probably not here and nearby. Idk Ga. I like mixing margaritas in the blender, floating in the pool, and playing golf in shorts and sleeves. But that’s just me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Idk Ga. I like mixing margaritas in the blender, floating in the pool, and playing golf in shorts and sleeves. But that’s just me. Why the hell are you on a weather board then... where 99% of the people love and wish for snow? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Why the hell are you on a weather board then... where 99% of the people love and wish for snow? I like snow in winter. Winter is over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: I like snow in winter. Winter is over. 22 for the low this morning high of 39 and a forecasted low of 18 tomorrow. Spring blows! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 On 3/18/2023 at 6:24 PM, GaWx said: After the prior impressive one, the second Canadian airmass is even more impressive in Atlanta. Tomorrow's high is progged to be 45 (with full sunshine!), which would be the coldest since the 45 of way back on January 14! There are 3 freezes on the way, with high 20s forecasted to be the coldest at Hartsfield the next two nights. Anything 28 or lower would be their coldest since 12/26! Let's go! You don't often get -15C at 850 in TN in mid March, but this may occur tomorrow at 12Z. Edit for 3AM at KATL: it is down to 41. But with only 5 more hours of cooling time, I don't know that there will be enough time to get down to the forecasted 28. Actually, 24 hours ago it was already down to 40. But the dewpoint then was still up at 32 vs the current way down to 19. We'll see if KATL makes it as a secondary cold front came through recently and cooling may accelerate with clearing skies. Nashville is now down to 27. Huntsville is 32, Chattanooga is 33, and Rome is 37 (all with clear skies). Regardless, Sun night will probably be colder if it doesn't get to the upper 20s later tonight. Edit: @dsaurI would have loved for you to get a pellet or three but it was way too dry for anything to get to the ground. Thanks, Abacus Man, I've had my trace to a quarter, and heard some sleet patter early in the season, and that's more than I usually get, lol, so I'll deal. Especially with such a pleasant day like today was. Sunny and crisp...reminded me of winter beginning, not ending. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 3 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: 22 for the low this morning high of 39 and a forecasted low of 18 tomorrow. Spring blows! Move to civilization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 11 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Move to civilization You declared "winter over" now I have to move for it to be over? Your meteorology knowledge is just as bad as your geography. I'm less than an hour from clemson university, 30 minutes from the casino, and an hour and 20 minutes from the mall of Georgia. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 4 mornings in the past week 25 degrees or lower including two 23 degree readings. Pretty impressive for late March. Also, killed my Azaleas! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 19 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: I like snow in winter. Winter is over. Just for the record, I think this model is trolling you: April Fools! But this is really on this crazy model's crazy 6Z run for April 1st following it having record lows in the Dakotas 3/29-31 following it having (near) record lows in S Canada 3/28. The GFS (like is the case for some other models) often overdoes cold lows over snowcover sometimes badly like it probably is doing in this run over the Dakotas and S Canada, which very likely is leading to a colder airmass plunging down from Canada. The next run will probably be much warmer late March through 4/1. But regardless: @dsaurdoes sometimes say to wait til after the Masters before declaring cold to be over. Don't argue with Tony as he knows his SE weather! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: Just for the record, I think this model is trolling you: April Fools! But this is really on this crazy model's crazy 6Z run for April 1st following it having record lows in the Dakotas 3/29-31 following it having near record lows in S Canada 3/28. The GFS (like is the case for some other models) often overdoes cold lows over snowcover sometimes badly like it probably is doing here. Yeah I saw this also. You can see on the euro how it has a big high coming down as well. The cold is not over yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 Yep I see frosts and freezes into mid April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 On 3/18/2023 at 6:24 PM, GaWx said: After the prior impressive one, the second Canadian airmass is even more impressive in Atlanta. Tomorrow's high is progged to be 45 (with full sunshine!), which would be the coldest since the 45 of way back on January 14! There are 3 freezes on the way, with high 20s forecasted to be the coldest at Hartsfield the next two nights. Anything 28 or lower would be their coldest since 12/26! Let's go! You don't often get -15C at 850 in TN in mid March, but this may occur tomorrow at 12Z. Edit for 3AM at KATL: it is down to 41. But with only 5 more hours of cooling time, I don't know that there will be enough time to get down to the forecasted 28. Actually, 24 hours ago it was already down to 40. But the dewpoint then was still up at 32 vs the current way down to 19. We'll see if KATL makes it as a secondary cold front came through recently and cooling may accelerate with clearing skies. Nashville is now down to 27. Huntsville is 32, Chattanooga is 33, and Rome is 37 (all with clear skies). Regardless, Sun night will probably be colder if it doesn't get to the upper 20s later tonight. Edit: @dsaurI would have loved for you to get a pellet or three but it was way too dry for anything to get to the ground. KATL did it. They had a low of 28 this morning, making it the coldest of the year to date and since way back on 12/26/2022! Congratulations, airport! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 With today's 28 at KATL being the coldest year to date, that (March 20th) sets a new record by one day for the latest coldest year to date (excluding the subsequent cold season that starts late in the year, of course). So, this is on day 79 of 2023. The old record was March 19th of 1892, though that was a leap year meaning that it was also the 79th day of that year. However, unlike today, that coldest to date on 3/19/1892 was actually a tie with 1/7/1892. By the way (this is very likely just a coincidence), the Arctic north of 80N just had their coldest day of the winter to date on March 16th. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 As @dsaurhas alluded to, having cold during and near the Masters is common. Today's Euro weekly for 4/3-10 suggests the patrons and golfers may need to bundle up (see below). There have been eight Weeklies runs covering that week and the one issued today has by a good margin the strongest cold signal for the SE/E as the others were either neutral or favoring warmth. That week has the strongest cold signal for the SE on the run and looks to be largely -NAO influenced. Are there more frosts and even freezes on the way for much of the SE within the first 10 or so days of April? This could be another Feb SSW influenced cold period as major SSW influences sometimes last a month or longer. Stay tuned! Today's Euro weekly for 4/3-10, which is reminiscent of what many runs correctly called for the very cold week of 3/13-20: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 19 hours ago, GaWx said: Are there more frosts and even freezes on the way for much of the SE within the first 10 or so days of April? Ugh... the neighborhood pool opens 4/1 and I was hoping to make use of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 1 hour ago, gtg947h said: Ugh... the neighborhood pool opens 4/1 and I was hoping to make use of it... For ice skating? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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