Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

[olafminesaw]

14 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Crazy how much the GFS changed.   Tons of rain for NC to absolutely nothing.  It'll keep wobbling.

Yep, suppressed and energy held back. Definitely a possibility and more of a fear for me at this point than a cutter. 

[eyewall]

Wow, it is isn't common to see something that suppressed in later March. I guess it is possible, but I am hoping it is a fluke.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z UKMET is a bit more progressive with the weak low just off FL late in the run. Despite that, a cold rain (low 40s) still moves as far north as SAV at 144. Interestingly, 850s cool from +3 C at 138 just before the rain to -1 to -2 C just after it starts at 144. That's due to evaporative cooling because 850 dewpoints are way down to -10 C just before the rain starts. With the surface then progged to be well above 32 at 43 and likely bottoming near 40, I wonder whether it would be too warm for any mixed precip to briefly make it to the ground at the end of that run. The output doesn't show precip type.

[Upstate Tiger]

What's wrong with the Euro?  Winnies have it clogged up?

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said:

What's wrong with the Euro?  Winnies have it clogged up?

It is out to 96. That looks about right keeping in mind we're in DST.

[GaWx]

As of 120, the 12Z Euro has a stronger low just off S FL and rain further north than earlier runs.

Edit: north extent of rain actually about same

[GaWx]

12Z Euro is more progressive with that stronger low and thus it ends up getting rain only up to coastal GA/SC/NC before pulling out and with no wintry precip. There's nothing behind this unlike the runs of yesterday and the day before, which had a stronger followup shortwave/GOM low.

[GaWx]

 **Weenie alert**
 Fwiw because I know it is an inferior model, often has weenie runs, and almost always fails when it is on its own:

The 12Z JMA is easily the weeniest run today. Based on 850s being sub 0C and significant qpf falling into those cold 850s, there appears to be significant to major snow over N GA (ATL to Augusta north), N SC (Aiken to Columbia to Florence north), most of NC other than coast and far west (heaviest over inland E NC including Fayetteville and RDU), and far SE VA. It starts early (which is key), 3/19, over N GA, and ends late on 3/20 over the E Carolinas.
 

 This is from that initial wave being much stronger vs other models. A very weak surface low develops well south in the GOM early on 3/19. It then moves ENE over C FL early on 3/20 to 200 miles SE of Charleston and strengthens to 1010 mb while underneath a cold 1032 mb high then centered over W NY state.

Edit: this is not the same wave the GFS is developing. The GFS develops the followup and is now on its own doing so.

In summary regarding 12Z runs: JMA (wave 1) and GFS (wave 2) are on their own with wintry precip in the SE. The GFS wintry is very limited (non sticking snow in C GA). The GFS is now on its own of the 12Z operationals developing the 2nd wave though some ensemble members still do.

Another edit: Although the JMA is inferior, it does illustrate well that the timing of the first wave is better for a potential winter storm because the cold high to the north will have had little time to modify. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Wow, it is isn't common to see something that suppressed in later March. I guess it is possible, but I am hoping it is a fluke.

Yeah, MJO Phase probably best equates to a suppressed solution.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, MJO Phase probably best equates to a suppressed solution.

 I agree. Suppressed would imo be the best chance (not necessarily for the mountains though as they often do best in other scenarios like upslope): see the 12Z JMA for example. Its low forms way down south in the GOM and then crosses central FL but still has a multiple inch snowstorm as far north as the GA/TN border to SE VA.
 

 The non-BOMM models all have the MJO either in phase 1 or 2 during the critical 3/19-21 period. Those two phases are the most favorable for suppressed Miller A lows and are easily the wettest phases in the SE (outside of the mountains) in the period centered on March:

 Also, phase 2 is the coldest in the SE while phase 1 is third coldest:

 In summary for the bulk of the SE, the MJO can't be any more favorable than is progged for 3/19-21.

[StantonParkHoya]

Looks like we return to normal to AN late March / early April

[wncsnow]

36 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Looks like we return to normal to AN late March / early April

Just in time for trout season!

[GaWx]

 Other than some of the mountains, the 18Z GFS is too warm for snow in the SE. Like for recent GFS runs it brings in the precip during 3/21-2 and that is from the second shortwave, by which time the cold air has modified too much. Contrast this to the 12Z JMA, which gives much of the northern SE a major winter storm from the first shortwave 3/19-20 when the cold air is fresh. Its snow is already exiting NC before the GFS' rain even starts from the second wave!

[Coach McGuirk]

And by the time the storm actually hits, Mt. Mitchell will be the only location reporting snow.

[eyewall]

Not a good look on what is normally the happy hour run.

[GaWx]

 Though it isn't looking good right now, I'd like to try to cheer up the thread with a low probability weenie map. I posted below the 6 hour qpf map for late Sun night from the weenie 12Z JMA. Because this is from the first wave, the precip occurs much earlier than the GFS' second wave based storm, which doesn't even first reach SC til 30 hours later. Almost all of this qpf north of a line from Atlanta to Athens to 50 miles S of Charlotte to S of Fayetteville and ENE into E NC is snow along with some of the qpf south of that line. The 1009 mb surface low had just crossed C FL while a cold 1033 mb high centered over NY state is still feeding in fresh cold air into the SE US on NE winds. This is the kind of map and early timing (working with the cold air rather than following it out) that is probably needed for a major winter storm in a good portion of the SE:

 

[Jmoon]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Though it isn't looking good right now, I'd like to try to cheer up the thread. I posted below the 6 hour qpf map for late Sun night from the weenie 12Z JMA. This is much earlier than the GFS' storm, which doesn't even first reach SC til 30 hours later. Almost all of this qpf north of a line from Atlanta to Athens to 50 miles S of Charlotte to S of Fayetteville and ENE into E NC is snow along with some of the qpf south of that line. The 1009 mb surface low had just crossed C FL while a cold 1033 mb high centered over NY state is still feeding in fresh cold air into the SE US on NE winds:

 

I'm with you brother. This winter has hurt big time. Nothing has worked out outside of the mountains and they haven't seen much either compared to averages. I'm on the brink of getting blanked for only the second time since 81-82. The only other time was 11-12. I'm just wanting to see a flake at this point. Seen about 9 sleet pellets so far. I'm hanging in till the bitter end as always like you. I always do. Thank you for all your insight and the anylasis and the hard work you put in to your research. I always look forward to reading what you have to say. I really enjoy it. Hoping for a miracle.

[GaWx]

Check out the 0Z ICON, especially in NC/VA 3/20-1. This is from wave #1. This is way different from the 12Z. 

[GaWx]

Check out the 0Z GFS. Stronger wave 1 on this, too, at the expense of wave 2. Of this trend continues, wave 1 could turn out to be the primary, which would be good because the cold air has much less time to modify.

Even though the 0Z GFS had no wintry, the precip just missed reaching the 0C 850 in SC before exiting stage right.

 Look at the trend of recent GFS runs and you'll see the precip from wave 1 getting further NW.

[JoshM]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Check out the 0Z GFS. Stronger wave 1 on this, too, at the expense of wave 2. Of this trend continues, wave 1 could turn out to be the primary, which would be good because the cold air has much less time to modify.

Even though the 0Z GFS had no wintry, the precip just missed reaching the 0C 850 in SC before exiting stage right.

 Look at the trend of recent GFS runs and you'll see the precip from wave 1 getting further NW.

The NW trend is the one thing we can count on

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, JoshM said:

The NW trend is the one thing we can count on

Lol and here it may end up helping! It is quite possibly related to the very warm Atlantic.

From this same wave 1, the 0Z CMC came very close to wintry precip late Saturday night from C GA to SE NC with rain just meeting the 0C 850 line. There was nothing like that in recent runs as the precip was offshore the SE. So, a big NW shift with this, too!

 

[Jmoon]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Lol and here it may end up helping! It is quite possibly related to the very warm Atlantic.

From this same wave 1, the 0Z CMC came very close to wintry precip late Saturday night from C GA to SE NC with rain just meeting the 0C 850 line. There was nothing like that in recent runs as the precip was offshore the SE. So, a big NW shift with this, too!

 

Yeah this is the time we really need it but will the cold still be cold enough to avoid another cold rain if tracks far enough nw. Hasn't worked out once this winter but I'm still all in. I want losing any sleep over it not working out. 

[IowaStorm05]

I’d like to complain about the change from 80s turned into 60s for daytime highs in Florida during this pattern. We’re having to use the heater again and it’s uncomfortably cool for my taste. We don’t get snow, so there’s no reason to champion chilly patterns here. It’s just uncomfortable and it’s unlikely many people on this sub are going to get real snow out of this. 
 

We had like 2 weeks of 80s up until this week and I had been mistaken that we were home free from using the heater anymore

[StantonParkHoya]

31 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I’d like to complain about the change from 80s turned into 60s for daytime highs in Florida during this pattern. We’re having to use the heater again and it’s uncomfortably cool for my taste. We don’t get snow, so there’s no reason to champion chilly patterns here. It’s just uncomfortable and it’s unlikely many people on this sub are going to get real snow out of this. 
 

We had like 2 weeks of 80s up until this week and I had been mistaken that we were home free from using the heater anymore

If people were being honest with themselves, they’d accept that it’ll be April in two weeks and this is over. It’s time to switch seasons and thinking.

[gtg947h]

32 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I’d like to complain about the change from 80s turned into 60s for daytime highs in Florida during this pattern. We’re having to use the heater again and it’s uncomfortably cool for my taste. We don’t get snow, so there’s no reason to champion chilly patterns here. It’s just uncomfortable and it’s unlikely many people on this sub are going to get real snow out of this. 
 

We had like 2 weeks of 80s up until this week and I had been mistaken that we were home free from using the heater anymore

Agreed.  I had to break out the winter workout clothing again

[Grayman]

7 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

If people were being honest with themselves, they’d accept that it’ll be April in two weeks and this is over. It’s time to switch seasons and thinking.

Yep. Been over for a while. A few weenies will hold on until we can talk severe weather and hurricanes. See y’all next “winter”

[franklin NCwx]

10 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

If people were being honest with themselves, they’d accept that it’ll be April in two weeks and this is over. It’s time to switch seasons and thinking.

How does one simply flip a switch and go straight to warm weather. The last 3 low temp readings here have been 24, 24, and 22 this morning? 

[StantonParkHoya]

1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

How does one simply flip a switch and go straight to warm weather. The last 3 low temp readings here have been 24, 24, and 22 this morning? 

I hope you go into hibernation this warm season and wake up again in November. You clearly can’t accept that spring is a real thing and it is here.

[franklin NCwx]

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I hope you go into hibernation this warm season and wake up again in November. You clearly can’t accept that spring is a real thing and it is here.

You couldn't be more wrong. I actually look forward to spring weather every year. My daughters play softball on the H.S and middle school teams, as well as travel. So I'm at the ball field everynight and almost every Saturday. My business picks up during spring and does well during the summer and fall. So I look forward to warm weather for the obvious reasons mentioned.  I'll actually pass on the low of 22 we has this morning, as well as the 20s forecasted for this weekend.  

[calculus1]

If people were being honest with themselves, they’d accept that it’ll be April in two weeks and this is over. It’s time to switch seasons and thinking.

Umm, I would enjoy my April with snow, please. I would also take it in May, June, July, ...

You can take your warm weather and shove it.

So, I will cling to every last drop of hope for cold, even if it doesn't come with snow. 70s in July would be awesome.

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