wncsnow Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Ducks love rain so yes its quacking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 GSP talking about a low that forms off the Texas coast next Tuesday and they'll be watching that carefully with the low staying south and east of the mountains with the cold temps will have to keep an eye on that next Tuesday and Wednesday time frame, the weather channel showing heavy snow for Asheville next Tuesday night time frame. Still a glimmer of hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 the blowing snow flurries around Asheville last night and today has been nice to see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 22 minutes ago, Tacoma said: GSP talking about a low that forms off the Texas coast next Tuesday and they'll be watching that carefully with the low staying south and east of the mountains with the cold temps will have to keep an eye on that next Tuesday and Wednesday time frame, the weather channel showing heavy snow for Asheville next Tuesday night time frame. Still a glimmer of hope. - It would be better if it were about a day earlier so that the cold air has less time to modify. - 12Z UKMET and Euro are good examples. - The UK has a nice Gulf low, but by the time it starts to bring its precip into the SE, 850s are already warming to above 0C ahead of it at the end of the run (Tue at 8AM). It also had a weak precursor wave just east of FL early on Mon (3/20) due S of the mid-Atlantic Arctic high that remained too suppressed and weak to get precip far enough NW into the sub 0C 850 mb air. - If future runs were to show a stronger and further NW offshore SE precursor low on 3/20, that could easily produce wintry on its own. The 12Z Euro hinted at that with small areas of mixed precip over S AL and C GA/SC (even in the afternoon in SC) on 3/20 from its precursor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Timing has to be perfect.. especially this time of year. And it's not going to be for most. We don't have enough blocking to keep the cold air around long enough so by the time the low ejects its too late and will be a nice rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Not going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Never say Never. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 Although the OP was a dud (more euro-like) the ensembles are the best yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 14, 2023 Share Posted March 14, 2023 The op stunk but the Ensembles were amazingSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Too warm for snow, too cold for comfort. It is the worst combination we thought would happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Ship has sailed folks. Get your beach gear out and tune up the lawn mower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Ship has sailed folks. Get your beach gear out and tune up the lawn mower. The Ship never came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: The Ship never came. The ship hasn't quite left the dock. It is giving the ducks one last chance to board early next week. Will they board early next week or will they be left behind til next winter? I just did a check of old maps for the two week periods centered on March 20th going back to 2000. I was looking for a similarly tracking GOM Miller A type low with a Canadian high to its north when over the E coast with a SLP comparable to what's progged for early next week (~1035 mb). The closest I could find was 3/13/2017. The high was about that strong but it wasn't quite as cold preceding the low vs what's progged. My point is that the projected setup is highly anomalous for this period. I'll try to check before 2000 later. The 18Z EPS had more activity offshore FL with the predecessor low fwiw. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 The ship hasn't quite left the dock. It is giving the ducks one last chance to board early next week. Will they board early next week or will they be left behind til next winter? I just did a check of old maps for the two week periods centered on March 20th going back to 2000. I was looking for a similarly tracking GOM Miller A type low with a Canadian high to its north when over the E coast with a SLP comparable to what's progged for early next week (~1035 mb). The closest I could find was 3/13/2017. The high was about that strong but it wasn't quite as cold preceding the low vs what's progged. My point is that the projected setup is highly anomalous for this period. I'll try to check before 2000 later. The 18Z EPS had more activity offshore FL with the predecessor low fwiw.Honestly everything lately seems to be highly anomalous. Can we just get some normal weather ?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 0z GFS is just weird, It trended better, but the low moves into the wedge, then goes north east and just stops for 6 hours+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 4 hours ago, Blizzard22 said: Honestly everything lately seems to be highly anomalous. Can we just get some normal weather ? . Anomalous is more interesting to me from a forecasting and observational perspective. Different strokes for different folks. The 0Z UKMET through 144 adds a new scenario of the precursor low moving slowly NNE off FL almost directly toward the cold high instead of OTS. This results in a cold rain moving north earlier into SE GA and then S SC on 3/20. None is wintry temperatures in the 40s) but I wonder what the later frames will show that go out another 24 hours assuming it gets to NC. The cold is retreating but I'm not sure it will do so quickly enough to avoid some form of wintry in NC on the later frames. Edit: Interestingly, the 0Z Euro has a similar change to the 0Z UKMET with the precursor low moving NNE instead of further offshore. This leads to light snow in parts of upstate SC and NC. This change in these two models is making me wonder if we're eventually going to get an up the coast nor'easter out of this as the dominant low as opposed to a more classic GOM low. Could the very warm waters of the SW Atlantic lead to this? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Overnight models looking surprisingly good for the lowlands. We may close in on a solution a little quicker this time around (for better or for worse) with a less progressive flow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Even WPC is highlighting a d7 threat for the mountains 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 11 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Ship has sailed folks. Get your beach gear out and tune up the lawn mower. Hell, I did that in January. If we're being honest, we knew back in December that this wasn't going to be a good winter for the SE. PAC = hamster on cocaine = poorly performing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Both the GEFS and EPS are trending in the right direction, which is all we can really watch at this time....trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 2 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Overnight models looking surprisingly good for the lowlands. We may close in on a solution a little quicker this time around (for better or for worse) with a less progressive flow. I’m not billing up the threat but that’s easily the best look anywhere outside of the mountains has seen this year at this timeframe from the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Not sure any of y’all are following but it’s worth it to give the NE Forum a look today. Their Obs thread for the most recent storm is extremely impressive, many places got 30-40+” of paste. Incredible pictures 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’m not billing up the threat but that’s easily the best look anywhere outside of the mountains has seen this year at this timeframe from the GEFS Agreed. A lot to overcome this time of year of course. This is what we needed in February. Either way perhaps threading the needle may be possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Not sure any of y’all are following but it’s worth it to give the NE Forum a look today. Their Obs thread for the most recent storm is extremely impressive, many places got 30-40+” of paste. Incredible pictures When I lived in VT, the big ones were almost always in March. I took these in 2017 on 3/14 and 3/15: 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, eyewall said: When I lived in VT, the big ones were almost always in March. I took these in 2017 on 3/14 and 3/15: That last one looks fake. Like a zoomed in photo of one of those mini Christmas villages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 50 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: That last one looks fake. Like a zoomed in photo of one of those mini Christmas villages. It really does but it is very real and those pines hold the snow well. It was taken on the north side of Burlington VT if I remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathang80 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 I saw a picture last week in Mammoth Lakes, CA received 8 feet of snow. That would cripple the south east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 I saw a picture last week in Mammoth Lakes, CA received 8 feet of snow. That would cripple the south east.Yeah, they're having an all-timer type of winter out there. 648" on the season...just mind boggling!Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Both gfs and icon are out to sea.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Crazy how much the GFS changed. Tons of rain for NC to absolutely nothing. It'll keep wobbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now