Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

[olafminesaw]

NWS calling for rain/snow mix Sunday morning. I'm rather agnostic on the matter. But a little white rain would be something at least.

[GaWx]

 The 0Z GFS has a hard freeze in many inland areas and a light freeze all of the way to the SE coast and down to the FL/GA border on March 20th. Some of these would be near record lows. This is the coldest night of the entire run.

[NorthHillsWx]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

Nothing like that has happened in quite awhile and it has been very rare this entire winter.

Last year, March 2022, RDU recorded freezes on March 12, 13, 28, 29. RDU also dropped to freezing on the 14th. Further, RDU dropped to freezing on April 20th. 

[KChuck]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z GFS has a hard freeze in many inland areas and a light freeze all of the way to the SE coast and down to the FL/GA border on March 20th. Some of these would be near record lows. This is almost the coldest night of the entire -r-u-n- winter.

Fixed it for you! 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Last year, March 2022, RDU recorded freezes on March 12, 13, 28, 29. RDU also dropped to freezing on the 14th. Further, RDU dropped to freezing on April 20th. 

Thanks for that info. I didn't mean in quite a few Marches. I meant it has been quite awhile since we had that (several freezes close together) this winter. The last time Atlanta and Athens had two consecutive freezes was way back in late January, for example.

[NorthHillsWx]

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks for that info. I didn't mean in quite a few Marches. I meant it has been quite awhile since we had that (several freezes close together) this winter. The last time Atlanta and Athens had two consecutive freezes was way back in late January, for example.

Thanks for the clarification. I need to check it for sure but I think it’s been since February 18-19 that RDU hit two consecutive days at or below freezing 

[StantonParkHoya]

All of this late March cool/cold tells me we are going to see multiple 90+ days in mid-late April. Summer come-early is incoming.

[gtg947h]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z GFS has a hard freeze in many inland areas and a light freeze all of the way to the SE coast and down to the FL/GA border on March 20th. Sone of these would be near record lows. This is the coldest night of the entire run.

I guess the one bright spot would be, maybe it would kill off some of these danged gnats...?  I got eaten alive at my son's soccer practices this week...

[Upstate Tiger]

The next 10 days indicates that the weather won’t be good for the human body for those in the SE.  

The optimum ambient temperature for preserving and sustaining the human body is 67 degrees Fahrenheit.

I heard that on Ancient Aliens…. 

[GaWx]

 The 18Z GFS along with recent runs has near record cold over the N Plains 3/17-18. It may be overdone due to snowcover assumptions, but regardless this shows the potential for a very potent cold airmass to come out of Canada then. I'm mentioning this only because most models then have this airmass plunge into the SE shortly after (3/18-20). Some runs, including this one for 3/19-20, have been showing the coldest of this airmass to be colder than the prior one for the SE.

[Coach McGuirk]

I just want an inch of snow to make a snowball.

[Tacoma]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 18Z GFS along with recent runs has near record cold over the N Plains 3/17-18. It may be overdone due to snowcover assumptions, but regardless this shows the potential for a very potent cold airmass to come out of Canada then. I'm mentioning this only because most models then have this airmass plunge into the SE shortly after (3/18-20). Some runs, including this one for 3/19-20, have been showing the coldest of this airmass to be colder than the prior one for the SE.

Isn't there a storm signal about this time frame also

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Tacoma said:

Isn't there a storm signal about this time frame also

 The 6Z GEFS/0Z GEPS has a moderate/modest Miller A ish Gulf storm signal for late 3/19 through 3/20, but that's nearly in fantasyland. Should there be one, it could get interesting for some areas (especially NC) for wintry precip ~3/20 considering how cold the preceding airmass might be. There have been some wintry precip events during 3/19-21 looking back in history.

 More immediately, there's a good chance for snow falling for part of tomorrow for especially northern NC! It would be a challenge for it to stick but not impossible in some areas for some stickage. But it just falling would be quite notable, especially for mid March and this winter's lack of it.

 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 The 6Z GEFS/0Z GEPS has a moderate/modest Miller A ish Gulf storm signal for late 3/19 through 3/20, but that's nearly in fantasyland. Should there be one, it could get interesting for some areas (especially NC) for wintry precip ~3/20 considering how cold the preceding airmass might be. There have been some wintry precip events during 3/19-21 looking back in history.

 More immediately, there's a good chance for snow falling for part of tomorrow for especially northern NC! It would be a challenge for it to stick but not impossible in some areas for some stickage.

 

I made a thread since, it's the only short range threat all winter 

 

[StantonParkHoya]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The 6Z GEFS/0Z GEPS has a moderate/modest Miller A ish Gulf storm signal for late 3/19 through 3/20, but that's nearly in fantasyland. Should there be one, it could get interesting for some areas (especially NC) for wintry precip ~3/20 considering how cold the preceding airmass might be. There have been some wintry precip events during 3/19-21 looking back in history.

 More immediately, there's a good chance for snow falling for part of tomorrow for especially northern NC! It would be a challenge for it to stick but not impossible in some areas for some stickage. But it just falling would be quite notable, especially for mid March and this winter's lack of it.

 

The GFS never has it falling below 39 in Granville/ Wake counties. I don’t see it.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

The GFS never has it falling below 39 in Granville/ Wake counties. I don’t see it.

 The 12Z GFS has RDU down to 34 and 100% RH early tomorrow afternoon with rain/snow mix falling. I'm not looking for sticking (though some sticking on nonpaved surfaces in some areas possible), but seeing some flakes falling is the main potential. Check out the new thread for this.

[StantonParkHoya]

Long range EPS shows a zonal pattern late March. Seasonal temps mid to upper 60s.

[GaWx]

Fantasyland 12Z GFS Miller A GOM snowstorm very late 3/21 to early 3/23. Almost entire N half of GA to NW SC to W 2/3 of NC to most of VA gets several inches. Shades of 3/24/1983. Mainly for entertainment but there is still that second batch of cold coming per model consensus and it looks to be coming in with more moisture to play with instead of plunging down like the first one in a few days. This is the extreme of extremes of what can happen.

12Z ICON also has a GOM Miller A but two days earlier. Some snow from that west of the SE US on 3/19.

[tarheelwx]

The Larry storm is on the radar. 
 

TW

[Fantom X]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Fantasyland 12Z GFS Miller A GOM snowstorm very late 3/21 to early 3/23. Almost entire N half of GA to NW SC to W 2/3 of NC to most of VA gets several inches. Shades of 3/24/1983. Mainly for entertainment but there is still that second batch of cold coming per model consensus and it looks to be coming in with more moisture to play with instead of plunging down like the first one in a few days. This is the extreme of extremes of what can happen.

12Z ICON also has a GOM Miller A but two days earlier. Some snow from that west of the SE US on 3/19.

Lock it in!!

[GaWx]

The 12Z Euro doesn't have a SE winter storm for 3/19-20. But, dare I say, the setup at H5, 850 mb, and at the surface is about as good a look as you're going to get without actually showing one in mid March for a *potential* very rare major snowstorm. When combined with what the 12Z ICON and GFS have, let's just say that I'm not counting out a miracle for somewhere within 3/19-22.

[dsaur]

On 3/10/2023 at 12:25 AM, GaWx said:

Thanks for that info. I didn't mean in quite a few Marches. I meant it has been quite awhile since we had that (several freezes close together) this winter. The last time Atlanta and Athens had two consecutive freezes was way back in late January, for example.

I need to be sure of something, Mr. Abacus....for every day I get over 80 in Jan, Feb and March I get a huge big ginormos ip/sn storm, is that like climo guaranteed? You got the cold right, so I need to suss out the rest.  Is it like one big huge storm for all the over 80's, or is it many separate storms through out spring?? Whatever, I think I've done enough weathering of nasty winter heat to deserve a sleetapoxyclips. Oh, and I do appreciate the coming freezes....and the moles are still wearing Larry masks, so that fantasy storm is sure to verify.

[GaWx]

 Looking at the progged indices for this extreme fantasy period of 3/19-22:

1. There's a weak +PNA peak, the highest PNA in 6 weeks, that then drops to neutral.

2. There's a secondary moderate -AO dip likely influenced by the lagged effects of the combined mid Feb SSW and late Feb further weakening.

3. There's a weak -NAO.

4. The MJO looks to be in moderate phase 1 to 2. Those on average for the SE during Feb-April have been two of the coldest phases (2 being the coldest) and the two wettest (suggesting the two phases most supportive for a Miller A per the precip patterns shown) as per below:

 

 

 Note that the 12Z CMC, EPS and GEFS all have a moderate Miller A signal within 3/19-22. Also, note that the consensus is bringing down a very cold airmass for mid March of sub -20C at 850 mb into the Midwest along with a large and strong (~1040 mb) surface high. Furthermore, the models aren't plunging it deep into the SE, which would be a dry cold. Rather, they're bringing the center of it to the Ohio Valley or nearby, which is conducive to potential Gulf centered action underneath, while showing a typically moist WSW H5 flow over the top in the SE (kind of a split flow).

 All of these are the "ducks on the pond" that suggest to watch this period for a *potential* rarity in mid to late March.

[JoshM]

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, JoshM said:

 

Looking good. A moderate signal for a very rare (for this time of year) winter storm remains intact for somewhere in the SE within 3/19-22. This is still mere speculation since it is still a ways out (6-9 days), but the ducks are on the pond at least and they're not flying away. There seems to be at least a small chance of something major wintrywise and a moderate chance for something nonmajor.

[olafminesaw]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Looking good. A moderate signal for a very rare (for this time of year) winter storm remains intact for somewhere in the SE within 3/19-22. This is still mere speculation since it is still a ways out (6-9 days), but the ducks are on the pond at least and they're not flying away. There seems to be at least a small chance of something major wintrywise and a moderate chance for something nonmajor.

Remarkable consistency from the GFS at this range. Somehow I think we have about as good a chance as we've had all winter with this one. Which on the one hand is remarkable given the date, but on the other hand is to say, regardless of how much snow the 6z GFS and future runs may dump, it's really a long shot. Just keeping ducks on the pond is something!

[BornAgain13]

Remarkable consistency from the GFS at this range. Somehow I think we have about as good a chance as we've had all winter with this one. Which on the one hand is remarkable given the date, but on the other hand is to say, regardless of how much snow the 6z GFS and future runs may dump, it's really a long shot. Just keeping ducks on the pond is something!

CMC also has the storm and Euro as well. EURO is warmer though

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[olafminesaw]

14 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

CMC also has the storm and Euro as well. EURO is warmer though

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Yeah the Euro has the same general look, but seems to just get the energy caught up out west and comes in too late to time the cold

[olafminesaw]

[eyewall]