Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

[StantonParkHoya]

Why do we keep referring to these mid March dates like they’re far off? The 11th is literally this Saturday.

[GaWx]

 I just noticed that of the 12Z/18Z runs, the 12Z UKMET as of 0Z on 3/14 is the coldest in much of the SE with lower 2M temps, 850s, and 500 mb heights than the other models. That model implies that ATL could have a light freeze on 3/14, which would be a day earlier than other models.

[JoshM]

Ah, GFS, ya didn't let me down!

 

[GaWx]

 0Z GFS/CMC hard freezes many areas 3/15 and/or 3/16. GFS run is coldest in many runs. Also, 0Z ICON has upper 20s many areas 3/15.

 0Z Euro, like 12Z Euro, isn't as cold as it has 30/31 for RDU/ATL on 3/15. Warmer Euro can be traced to it having it ~10 warmer in ND vs GFS/CMC (teens vs single digits) before the cold gets to the SE.

 0Z UKMET 144 not quite as cold as the 12Z 156.

0Z EPS 31/31 and 0Z GEFS 31/34 for RDU/ATL on 3/15.

[StantonParkHoya]

We hunting frosts now?

[NorthHillsWx]

On 3/7/2023 at 7:01 AM, olafminesaw said:

If nothing else, perhaps this season has beaten through our collective thick skulls that 5 day+ op runs are meaningless.

I actually disagree with this. I feel like models have been relatively locked in from inside 7-8 days. We haven’t had anything besides the ULL low that made it inside medium range as a threat. Beyond 7-8 days as has been and, for the foreseeable future, will always be fantasy land. The only reason people strayed into fantasy land this year was there was literally nothing interesting to talk about inside the fantasy range. Overall though, I think models did a great job inside a week, the only issue being they collectively and correctly eroded weenie hope every run once anything got into that range. 
 

The major SSW event was really the only thing that kept this forum entertaining for the last month bc there was just nothing else going to give us hope in the sh*t patten we were stuck in, so all of GA’s posts were much welcomed even if nothing really panned out as far as sensible weather impacts for our region. Winter 2022-23 will forever go down as the winter that never happened (I think I saw RDU finished with 22 of 28 days above average in February)

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We hunting frosts now?

We broke 40 at my house (39.9) this morning. That was our first morning below 40 since February 19. I don’t need to tell you how anomalous that is. There are some serious records that could fall across the southeast as far as earliest last freezes are concerned 

[tarheelwx]

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I actually disagree with this. I feel like models have been relatively locked in from inside 7-8 days. We haven’t had anything besides the ULL low that made it inside medium range as a threat. Beyond 7-8 days as has been and, for the foreseeable future, will always be fantasy land. The only reason people strayed into fantasy land this year was there was literally nothing interesting to talk about inside the fantasy range. Overall though, I think models did a great job inside a week, the only issue being they collectively and correctly eroded weenie hope every run once anything got into that range. 
 

The major SSW event was really the only thing that kept this forum entertaining for the last month bc there was just nothing else going to give us hope in the sh*t patten we were stuck in, so all of GA’s posts were much welcomed even if nothing really panned out as far as sensible weather impacts for our region. Winter 2022-23 will forever go down as the winter that never happened (I think I saw RDU finished with 22 of 28 days above average in February)

Couldn't agree more.  I think the operationals have done pretty decent.  The ensembles were run by Lucy this year.  

TW

[olafminesaw]

58 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I actually disagree with this. I feel like models have been relatively locked in from inside 7-8 days. We haven’t had anything besides the ULL low that made it inside medium range as a threat. Beyond 7-8 days as has been and, for the foreseeable future, will always be fantasy land. The only reason people strayed into fantasy land this year was there was literally nothing interesting to talk about inside the fantasy range. Overall though, I think models did a great job inside a week, the only issue being they collectively and correctly eroded weenie hope every run once anything got into that range. 
 

The major SSW event was really the only thing that kept this forum entertaining for the last month bc there was just nothing else going to give us hope in the sh*t patten we were stuck in, so all of GA’s posts were much welcomed even if nothing really panned out as far as sensible weather impacts for our region. Winter 2022-23 will forever go down as the winter that never happened (I think I saw RDU finished with 22 of 28 days above average in February)

That's fair. I feel like it's really hard to gauge objectively honestly. Some storms that, for example were showing a major snowstorm for Pittsburgh 5 days out, shifted to Minnesota/northern Wisconsin. In this scenario, it feels like the models got it right, but that's just because we got rain either way. It does seem like the models struggled with temps though. A lot of storms went from showing a decent region of snow in the cold sector of the storm, but this shrunk as it got into the medium range.

[StantonParkHoya]

If you just bet on the inevitable 200 mile NW trend every time, you’ll never be disappointed.

[KChuck]

2 hours ago, tarheelwx said:

Couldn't agree more.  I think the operationals have done pretty decent.  The ensembles were run by Lucy this year.  

TW

[Grayman]

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I actually disagree with this. I feel like models have been relatively locked in from inside 7-8 days. We haven’t had anything besides the ULL low that made it inside medium range as a threat. Beyond 7-8 days as has been and, for the foreseeable future, will always be fantasy land. The only reason people strayed into fantasy land this year was there was literally nothing interesting to talk about inside the fantasy range. Overall though, I think models did a great job inside a week, the only issue being they collectively and correctly eroded weenie hope every run once anything got into that range. 
 

The major SSW event was really the only thing that kept this forum entertaining for the last month bc there was just nothing else going to give us hope in the sh*t patten we were stuck in, so all of GA’s posts were much welcomed even if nothing really panned out as far as sensible weather impacts for our region. Winter 2022-23 will forever go down as the winter that never happened (I think I saw RDU finished with 22 of 28 days above average in February)

This is exactly how I feel. Never even had anything to watch inside a week for my area. 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z 3/8 EPS mean has its coldest run yet for the coldest at RDU/ATL with 30/29 on 3/15. But this is still not as impressive to me as the 31/30 from both the 0Z 3/1 and 3/3 runs because those were for 10-11 days out (for earlier days). The 12Z 3/8 run is for only 7 days out, which is much more predictable than 10-11 days out and thus has a much smaller spread of the members. When the spread is bigger, it is more difficult  for an ensemble mean of many members to show a strong anomaly since the tendency of the mean is to go towards climo as the model goes out further.

Edit: In case there's confusion, the 0Z 3/1 run that had 31/30 wasn't for 3/15 but instead was for 3/12 (11 days out). Likewise, the 0Z 3/3 run that had 31/30 wasn't for 3/15 but instead was for 3/13 (10 days out).

[Coach McGuirk]

12 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We hunting frosts now?

looks like it :/

[LakeNormanStormin]

13 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

We hunting frosts now?

 

[JoshM]

golly gee, GFS, trying to trick us AGAIN

 

[blueheels2]

9 hours ago, JoshM said:

golly gee, GFS, trying to trick us AGAIN

 

Oh man what I would give for that to come to fruition.

[StantonParkHoya]

9 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Looking at that March 18th sun with a slushy snowpack 

 

Thank god someone finally brought up sun angle

[olafminesaw]

12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Thank god someone finally brought up sun angle

Oh my gosh. I think we made it through a whole winter without it being brought up (or warm temps leading up to an event). That at least is one good thing about this winter!

[NorthHillsWx]

45 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Oh my gosh. I think we made it through a whole winter without it being brought up (or warm temps leading up to an event). That at least is one good thing about this winter!

Sad we never had anything close to an event it would inevitably have been brought up with! The biggest sun angle/warm ground talk offender has always been and will continue to be the meteorology department at WRAL 

[BooneWX]

Since I the violated the terms of service, I’m going to bring up the other elephant: THOSE WARM GROUND TEMPS!!

[GaWx]

On 3/8/2023 at 9:42 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

The major SSW event was really the only thing that kept this forum entertaining for the last month bc there was just nothing else going to give us hope in the sh*t patten we were stuck in, so all of GA’s posts were much welcomed even if nothing really panned out as far as sensible weather impacts for our region.

 I appreciate the favorable mention! I think this stuff is fascinating to follow and hope many like myself learned some new things about SSWs.
 
 Regarding the sensible wx impacts from the major SSW:

 I'd say we actually are about to see this in the form of a lengthy much colder pattern than we have been seeing for most of this winter, especially when considering anomalies, starting this weekend and with no end yet in sight. The start of the colder pattern is admittedly about one week delayed from the average post SSW lag of ~two weeks due to the stubborn strong -PNA. However, no two SSWs are exactly alike and some have taken 3 weeks. Also, there often is warmth for 10-14 days after an SSW.
 

 It is still coming even if next week doesn't look quite as cold to me as late last week's EPS runs were suggesting. I mean we're still likely looking at several midmonth freezes at a minimum for many well inland areas. Nothing like that has happened in quite awhile and it has been very rare this entire winter.
 

 Whether or not there will also be the typically very hard to predict wintry precip of note accompanying any of this much colder air for any area at any point is still up in the air, of course. Getting notable wintry precip in the SE in mid to late March is never easy in any year, SSW or not. The main and most reliable effect from a downwelled SSW is the cold, which is what I've obviously been emphasizing. Wintry precip is always a bonus. The 2018 major SSW did lead to it in March in much of NC.

[Blizzard22]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I appreciate the favorable mention! I think this stuff is fascinating to follow and hope many like myself learned some new things about SSWs.
 
 Regarding the sensible wx impacts from the major SSW:

 I'd say we actually are about to see this in the form of a lengthy much colder pattern than we have been seeing for most of this winter, especially when considering anomalies, starting this weekend and with no end yet in sight. The start of the colder pattern is admittedly about one week delayed from the average post SSW lag of ~two weeks due to the stubborn strong -PNA. However, no two SSWs are exactly alike and some have taken 3 weeks.
 

 It is still coming even if next week doesn't look quite as cold to me as late last week's EPS runs were suggesting. I mean we're still likely looking at several midmonth freezes at a minimum for many well inland areas. Nothing like that hasn't happened in quite awhile and it has been very rare this entire winter.
 

 Whether or not there will also be the typically very hard to predict wintry precip of note accompanying any of this much colder air for any area at any point is still up in the air, of course. Getting notable wintry precip in the SE in mid to late March is never easy in any year, SSW or not. The main and most reliable effect from a downwelled SSW is the cold, which is what I've obviously been emphasizing. Wintry precip is always a bonus. The 2018 major SSW did lead to it in much of NC.

I wonder when the last major winter event in GA was in Mid to Late March ?

[GaWx]

32 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said:

I wonder when the last major winter event in GA was in Mid to Late March ?

I think that the last mid to late March major winter event outside of the mountains in GA was the 1993 Storm of the Century. That even brought measurable snow way down here, latest on record! A moderate one was in 1987 and other big N GA ones were in 1983 (trace of sleet even here) and 1971. Plus there were others, including the big one of 3/11/1960. We're sort of overdue fwiw.

[olafminesaw]

28 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said:

I wonder when the last major winter event in GA was in Mid to Late March ?

Major by GA standards anyway:

[Blizzard22]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Major by GA standards anyway:

That wasn't Mid to Late March

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Major by GA standards anyway:

That was definitely major for GA even though not mid to late March. Actually, this map is slightly underdone as there was 4-5"+ in much of the southside of Atlanta as I recall, even including 4.2" officially at KATL.

[GaWx]

 I find it interesting that a second round of notable cold is now agreed on by the 12Z model consensus, including GEFS and GEPS, coming in ~3/18 fwiw.

 Edit: Also, it appears that there could be some snow in parts of N NC and maybe the mountains on Sunday (3/12).

[Tyler Penland]

 I find it interesting that a second round of notable cold is now agreed on by the 12Z model consensus, including GEFS and GEPS, coming in ~3/18 fwiw.
 Edit: Also, it appears that there could be some snow in parts of N NC and maybe the mountains on Sunday (3/12).

The EPS has been pretty consistently showing the potential on Sunday for the past week or so, at least for Boone.


Also NASCAR will be in Atlanta on the 19th so you can pretty much guarantee that cold snap. They bring the best weather with them everywhere, including snow to Fontana, CA.

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

[GaWx]

 And now I can add the 12Z EPS to the colder trends for ~3/18-20. The last few runs have been trending colder for then and this latest one is the coldest of those. It doesn't yet get it as cold as the first one per the mean, but keep in mind that 3/18-20 is still 9-11 days out, when the spread around the mean is much larger due to more uncertainty. This run even has a weak wintry precip signal then in NC.

Edit fwiw regarding the new Euro Weeklies:  The weeks of 3/20-26 and 3/27-4/2 both have a significant chilly BN signal on them prior to warming up substantially afterward in time for baseball season and the Masters. So, big swings over the next month or so per this run.