Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

[wncsnow]

Looks like a brief cooldown on the Euro and not that cold. Highs in the 50s except the mountains. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Spring has sprung

[GaWx]

 The concern for cold lovers, which I think is valid, is that the EPS runs from Feb 27th through 0Z March 3rd were mainly cold in the SE early on March 11th after turning colder on March 10th. But since the 12Z March 3rd run, they've been near normal or warmer for March 10th through early on March 11th. The latest EPS runs don't get it cold til either later on March 11th or on March 12th. So, a 1-2 day delay from the coldest runs.
 
 The GEFS was slower to consistently make it cold by then but became that way by the March 1st runs with colder by March 10th. The GEFS' coldest runs were 12Z/18Z of March 2nd. The March 3rd runs were not as cold but still on the cooler side for early on March 11th. Then they suddenly became much warmer (mainly AN) starting with the 0Z March 4th run and have been that way since. The most recent GEFS runs don't make it cold til either March 12th or 13th, a longer delay than the EPS...2-3 day delay vs the coldest runs.

 Is this another kicking the can or just a little delay? Any educated guesses? We'll know eventually. Aren't forecasting discussions fun? 
 

 For those interested, go to Tropical Tidbits and look at the maps valid for 6Z on March 11th on the Feb 27th through 0Z/6Z of March 5th runs and see for yourselves as they're still there.

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The concern for cold lovers, which I think is valid, is that the EPS runs from Feb 27th through 0Z March 3rd were mainly cold in the SE early on March 11th after turning colder on March 10th. But since the 12Z March 3rd run, they've been near normal or warmer for March 10th through early on March 11th. The latest EPS runs don't get it cold til either later on March 11th or on March 12th. So, a 1-2 day delay from the coldest runs.
 
 The GEFS was slower to consistently make it cold by then but became that way by the March 1st runs with colder by March 10th. The GEFS' coldest runs were 12Z/18Z of March 2nd. The March 3rd runs were not as cold but still on the cooler side for early on March 11th. Then they suddenly became much warmer (mainly AN) starting with the 0Z March 4th run and have been that way since. The most recent GEFS runs don't make it cold til either March 12th or 13th, a longer delay than the EPS...2-3 day delay vs the coldest runs.

 Is this another kicking the can or just a little delay? Any educated guesses? We'll know eventually. Aren't forecasting discussions fun? 
 

 For those interested, go to Tropical Tidbits and look at the maps valid for 6Z on March 11th on the Feb 27th through 0Z/6Z of March 5th runs and see for yourselves as they're still there.

Seems to me like we keep getting lows that cut to the great lakes, and kick back the arrival of cold and in turn, lead to another bad storm track.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Seems to me like we keep getting lows that cut to the great lakes, and kick back the arrival of cold and in turn, lead to another bad storm track.

 I see nothing on the 12Z 3/5 runs that would likely be encouraging for cold lovers. This is especially compared to some of the really nice much colder runs of 3/2-3. It is almost as if the 3/2-3 runs were troll runs lol. The Euro is especially noteworthy to me with this reversal.

12Z Euro goes all of the way to 12Z on 3/15 and coldest it gets through entire run is middle 30s in ATL and RDU. The 3/3 runs, which only went through 3/13, were well down into the 20s.

Edit to add the 12Z EPS to the discouraging trend for SE cold lovers.

[GaWx]

 Here are the coldest mean lows for each EPS run back to the 2/28 0Z run for RDU/ATL, which shows why it is a bad trend for SE cold lovers:

2/28 0Z: 35/36 on 3/13-14

2/28 12Z: 34/34 on 3/14-15

3/1 0Z: 31/30 on 3/12 (coldest tied)

3/1 12Z: 32/31 on 3/12-13

3/2 0Z: 35/36 on 3/14-15

3/2 12Z: 32/31 on 3/13

3/3 0Z: 31/30 on 3/12-13 (coldest tied)

3/3 12Z: 31/31 on 3/13-14

3/4 0Z: 31/31 on 3/13-14

3/4 12Z: 33/34 on 3/13-15

3/5 0Z: 33/36 on 3/13-14

3/5 12Z: 35/37 on 3/14 (warmest run)

  This is a double whammy because we're now the closest to the crucial dates of 3/12-15 and the coldest means instead of cooling further, which would be expected on an ensemble with 51 members when getting closer if there's big cold coming, have warmed considerably.

 So, chances of the SE getting a notable cold period in mid March have come down considerably since March 3rd. Because it is getting closer and thus we're running out of time for big ensemble mean changes back in the colder direction (the closer to the days being forecasted, the smaller the average change), the ensembles are going to need to sharply reverse to colder again within the next 3 days or so or that's going to be the ballgame imo. The 3/2 12Z and 3/3 0Z runs did get significantly colder again after a significant warmup on the 3/2 0Z run, but we're three days closer. That reduces the chance considerably for another sizable cold reversal. Not good.

[wncsnow]

It's over. Even the mountains will be lucky to get a few more inches of snow on the year. Trout season, gardening and thunderstorm season is around the corner. 

[StantonParkHoya]

A beautiful 82 degrees along SE NC beaches at the end of the GFS run 

[NorthHillsWx]

SER just says “what cold?”… We’lol be lucky to get a freeze. Many, many earliest last frost/freeze records are in jeopardy this spring 

[PackGrad05]

both the EPS and GEFS came back with a signal for March 11-13 time period.  

 

[tarheelwx]

Honestly, I don't think the ensembles have been any better in the extended than the operationals.  

So Pack, was the signal a faint distant heartbeat, or something more solid?  Feel like Lucy is back at it again.

TW

[JoshM]

12 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Honestly, I don't think the ensembles have been any better in the extended than the operationals.  

So Pack, was the signal a faint distant heartbeat, or something more solid?  Feel like Lucy is back at it again.

TW

 

[PackGrad05]

18 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Honestly, I don't think the ensembles have been any better in the extended than the operationals.  

So Pack, was the signal a faint distant heartbeat, or something more solid?  Feel like Lucy is back at it again.

TW

The EPS has had the signal for the past 3-4 days....  it is more faint now, but still there.  

GEFS has not been as robust...  honestly the most recent run only had one member out of 30....

I'm just a snow lover at heart and want to see some falling.

[StantonParkHoya]

 

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

The EPS has had the signal for the past 3-4 days....  it is more faint now, but still there.  

GEFS has not been as robust...  honestly the most recent run only had one member out of 30....

I'm just a snow lover at heart and want to see some falling.

With upper 30s and mid March sun angle, “falling” snow is close to best case. It’s just not going to amount to anything.

[Coach McGuirk]

If even GAWX is saying it's over then it's over.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

If even GAWX is saying it's over then it's over.

I didn't say it is over but that the chance for notable cold had dropped a lot based mainly on the warmer EPS trend and that a cold reversal was needed, stat! Since then, two GFS runs have come out with their longest mid March cold periods in the SE in many runs (3/14-18, 19). RDU to N GA have five straight freezes 3/14-18 along with 5+ days straight of sub 0C at 850 mb. Even down here there's 3.5 straight days of that. That's all quite impressive but they're just two GFS runs out 8-14 days, which get well into fantasy land.

 So, I'm still monitoring. I really need to see the Euro suite go back colder ASAP! The teens of March are put up or shut up time! That's still 7-13 days out. So, not over yet.

Edit for 3/6 0Z EPS: coldest of run at RDU/ATL 35/39 on 3/15 making it even warmer than the prior run, which had been the warmest run for mid March, and thus not good if one prefers the longest/most intense cold. Comparing the 35/39 to the much colder two 31/30 runs of three and five days ago, respectively, doesn't exactly point to an increasing threat of long/strong cold in mid March. 
 

 What's very odd is that while the GEPS has remained cold for midmonth, the GFS (cold now vs milder earlier) and Euro (milder now vs cold earlier) suites have literally switched positions! I bet that, alone, will cause some cold loving folks to favor the GFS suite over the Euro suite after previously favoring the Euro due to bias. I don't expect to do that and instead expect to continue to consider both with a little more weighting to the better performing Euro.

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

If even GAWX is saying it's over then it's over.

 Based on today's 12Z runs, I'm almost there! More specifically the 12Z EPS is similar to the prior run with coldest mean low of 35/38 on 3/15 at RDU/ATL vs 35/39 on the prior run, which means it's just about the same as the least cold run for mid-March so far. That implies probably no more than a couple of light freezes at most. Compare that to 31/30 on both the 3/1 0Z and 3/3 0Z runs, which had implied most likely a couple of lows well down into the 20s/hard freezes (remember that a 51 member ensemble mean is normally higher than the mean coldest of each member) and several highs only in the 40s.

 The 12Z GFS isn't cold for as long as the prior three runs.

 The prospect of a lengthy, notable cold period in mid-March is dwindling even more and may soon be on life support. Great/bad news for cold haters/lovers! No matter the final result, it has been fun following the prospects for a colder pattern ever since the mid Feb major SSW was looking likely in early Feb. I learned a lot more than I knew before about SSWs and the potential stratospheric effects on the troposphere and hope that some of y'all learned some new things, too. No matter what, it is evident that the current strong -NAO/-AO very likely resulted from it.

[Coach McGuirk]

The last winter without even a trace of snow at Newport News was 97-98 from what I recall.  

[JoshM]

[olafminesaw]

If nothing else, perhaps this season has beaten through our collective thick skulls that 5 day+ op runs are meaningless.

 

At least until December, when collective amnesia sets in and that weenie map crack becomes irresistible again 

[StantonParkHoya]

17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

If nothing else, perhaps this season has beaten through our collective thick skulls that 5 day+ op runs are meaningless.

 

At least until December, when collective amnesia sets in and that weenie map crack becomes irresistible again 

It’ll be El Niño come December and hope will be restored.

[StantonParkHoya]

I’ve also noticed that op runs from 5-7 days out have consistently been 5 or more degrees too cool by day of. 

[tarheelwx]

The ensembles have been equally abysmal.  There have been quite a few times that folks on here doubted the warmth of the operational runs by referring back to the ensembles (which were colder) and saying that we should really be using the ensembles at that particular range.  In those cases, the warmth of the operationals won out.  

Just saying.  

TW

[olafminesaw]

I gotta say though, the mountains are certainly still in the game. The 0z EPS and 6z GEFS both have a fairly strong signal around the 17th/18th. 

[GaWx]

 Coldest for each EPS run RDU/ATL:

3/2 0Z: 35/36 on 3/14-15

3/2 12Z: 32/31 on 3/13

3/3 0Z: 31/30 on 3/12-13 (coldest run)

3/3 12Z: 31/31 on 3/13-14

3/4 0Z: 31/31 on 3/13-14

3/4 12Z: 33/34 on 3/13-15

3/5 0Z: 33/36 on 3/13-14

3/5 12Z: 35/37 on 3/14

3/6 0Z: 35/39 on 3/15 (warmest run)

3/6 12Z: 35/38 on 3/15

3/7 0Z: 33/35 on 3/15

3/7 12Z: 32/31 on 3/15 (GEFS 32/34)

 So, the last two EPS runs have come in significantly colder at ATL (by 7F) and slightly colder at RDU (by 3F). Regardless, I'm still not nearly as impressed with midmonth cold potential compared to how it looked 4-6 days ago. But the overall pattern could still change back to even colder and be similar to how it looked 4-6 days ago being that 3/15 is still 8 days away though I don't consider getting all of the way back to that look to be likely right now.

Edit: The 18Z GFS was the coldest in a couple of days on 3/15 with low 30s ATL and upper 20s RDU. Since we're still getting sizable changes from run to run then, there's still a good bit of uncertainty midmonth.

[JoshM]

Oh, GFS, you won't get me this time!!!

 

[olafminesaw]

26 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Oh, GFS, you won't get me this time!!!

 

Temps in the upper 30s at night time? Moderate rates? Perfect track required? What could go wrong?

[StantonParkHoya]

1 hour ago, JoshM said:

Oh, GFS, you won't get me this time!!!

 

I’ll give you 500:1

[Upstate Tiger]

1 hour ago, JoshM said:

Oh, GFS, you won't get me this time!!!

 

Oh come on Josh...I know you will setting your alarm tonight for 1130 and 130.  

[PackGrad05]

On 2/27/2023 at 8:07 AM, PackGrad05 said:

The 00Z EPS really likes the 11-13 time period...  Still watching that.

Also watching severe potential for Friday.  

I first mentioned this back on Feb. 27.  EPS still has a signal for 11-13...  GEFS coming on board.