Tacoma Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Euro says not so fast about the 10th. Storm in the midwest. GSP is just honking the horn about the POTENTIAL. The signal is there. Not a sure thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Well you know the GFS and Euro will not be in agreement... the last storm the Euro was showing snow here and the gfs was showing the storm further west with rain here. Guess what? Gfs scored the coup. Will see what happens with this one Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Well you know the GFS and Euro will not be in agreement... the last storm the Euro was showing snow here and the gfs was showing the storm further west with rain here. Guess what? Gfs scored the coup. Will see what happens with this one Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk You would have to be a mad man to bet against a cutter this year 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 From snow to 75 on the 13th. Oh how fun GFS long range op runs can be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Never bet against the SER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 In the ENS we trust, at least I do lol. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 So much for that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 It's only 10 days away even 10 days from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's only 10 days away even 10 days from now And by the time the cold air does arrive it will be dry and short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 15 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: And by the time the cold air does arrive it will be dry and short lived. Yep the pattern has been the same all winter. I'm dreading the 2 to 4 inches of more rain next week(end). I'm already over 2 for the month and have 13 for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 You would have to be a mad man to bet against a cutter this yearI am that madman…Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 We reached the put up or shut up timeframe and the modeling chose the latter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Overnight euroSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Looks great for the mountains. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Eps has been rock steady. The date has always been around the 10th.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 A little further out on eps.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Not a bad look at all at that time trame on the eps.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Not a bad signal Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 GFS only has a few hours out of 384 below freezing for RDU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 That cold push keeps getting less and less intense on the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 0Z GEFS based AO forecasts still trending lower for Mar 6th and 10th though at a slower pace as we get closer For March 6th: 2/26 run: -0.1 2/27 run: -0.5 2/28 run: -1.3 3/1 run: -1.5 3/2 run: -1.9 3/3 run: -2.2 3/4 run: -2.3 For March 10th: 2/28 run: 0.0 3/1 run: -0.9 3/2 run: -2.0 3/3 run: -2.1 3/4 run: -2.4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 10 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: GFS only has a few hours out of 384 below freezing for RDU 20 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: That cold push keeps getting less and less intense on the GFS. Looks like a few frosts, or normal for March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 I’m convinced the SER has officially become an immovable object. It’ll fade for 2-3 days for sure but it’s still there hiding, resurrecting itself for the next 14 days immediately before another system approaches. Literally we cannot even get a frost this year, I do not remember the last time it hit freezing at my house. I will say, the weather today was AMAZING! I’ll take this any day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 47 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: That cold push keeps getting less and less intense on the GFS. Same shit, different month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’m convinced the SER has officially become an immovable object. It’ll fade for 2-3 days for sure but it’s still there hiding, resurrecting itself for the next 14 days immediately before another system approaches. Literally we cannot even get a frost this year, I do not remember the last time it hit freezing at my house. I will say, the weather today was AMAZING! I’ll take this any day I'm looking forward to a walk this evening with the lowest dewpoints in this region in quite some time. We had 80s today with only 40s dewpoints. This reminds me of a midsummer day in Colorado. If all days were similar in summer, I'd enjoy being outside a lot. But alas, these are very rare during summer. Regarding the persistent SER from what I've read from pro mets, it has been dominant the last few years due to a combo of La Niña, record warm MC SSTs favoring longer and stronger MC phases (though in Feb it was short) as well as MC-like forcing even when the MJO isn't there, and the very strong AMO making the Atlantic warmth act like a block in the form of a SER. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 20 minutes ago, GaWx said: I'm looking forward to a walk this evening with the lowest dewpoints in this region in quite some time. We had 80s today with only 40s dewpoints. This reminds me of a midsummer day in Colorado. If all days were similar in summer, I'd enjoy being outside a lot. But alas, these are very rare during summer. Regarding the persistent SER from what I've read from pro mets, it has been dominant the last few years due to a combo of La Niña, record warm MC SSTs favoring longer and stronger MC phases (though in Feb it was short) as well as MC-like forcing even when the MJO isn't there, and the very strong AMO making the Atlantic warmth act like a block in the form of a SER. I am not a meteorologist, but when there is a trough on the west coast with all these Cali storms, it always forces a ridge in the east, especially SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 22 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: I am not a meteorologist, but when there is a trough on the west coast with all these Cali storms, it always forces a ridge in the east, especially SE. Yes, indeed, that's common in winter when the average wavelengths are longest. But what causes these west coast troughs (-PNA)? The record warm MC and La Niña are often touted as the main reasons. But also, there's speculation that the SER can be more than just a "forcee" but also do its own forcing at times thanks to the record high AMO of recent years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Coach McGuirk said: I am not a meteorologist, but when there is a trough on the west coast with all these Cali storms, it always forces a ridge in the east, especially SE. As GA has explained it's a lot more complex than that. Especially when you have blocking over the top, a decaying Nina, a 50/50 low, different wavelengths.... It's a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 hours ago, Met1985 said: As GA has explained it's a lot more complex than that. Especially when you have blocking over the top, a decaying Nina, a 50/50 low, different wavelengths.... It's a lot. Yep, a lot of buzz words for no snow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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