NorthHillsWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Even with the blocking, the SER WILL NOT DIE 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Cold keeps getting delayed on the models... sound familiar? I doubt it will be more than a transient cool shot. Frost and freeze maybe but no real cold outbreak or snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 We will see how long and strong the cold period will be, assuming it comes at all. The models have been cold biased for most of the last few winters due largely to under forecasted SE ridging. Maybe the cooldown will end up being weak and short per what wncsnow just posted. It will be mid-March by then after all. Nobody knows of course and that's the kind of speculation this thread is here for. Regardless of what ends up happening, I think it will be noteworthy in that there will at the very least be a major pattern change to sharply colder for an unknown period of time starting after the next week or so vs how it has been most of this winter to date due to the very weak SPV (see AO forecast info below). The model consensus is still calling for the longest period of chill by far since the last half of December. Regarding wintry precip, that is always a crapshoot in the SE, especially outside of the mountains, especially south of NC, and even moreso for all of the non-mountainous SE in mid March. Hopefully, some locations will luck out and get some of note with good upslope snow for the mountains at the very least with any luck. Meanwhile, the trend toward a stronger and longer -AO period during the first half of this month (likely due to the lagged effects of a very weak and displaced SPV) continues with today's 0Z update: 0Z GEFS based AO forecasts for March 6th: 2/26 run: -0.1 2/27 run: -0.5 2/28 run: -1.3 3/1 run: -1.5 3/2 run: -1.9 For March 10th: 2/28 run: 0.0 3/1 run: -0.9 3/2 run: -2.0 Also, the EPS has continued its downward trend of the AO since its 0Z 2/27 run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Yall looking for snow outside the mountains are done for. No chance at all. Yall need to start a spring thread for late killing freeze which will happen. Sorry guys but that's just how this winter has blown. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Piedmont players have accepted it. I'm following Panovich's advice to plant after tax day though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I'm not believing the 12Z ICON's 1060 SLP just west of Hudson Bay at 144 (for 12Z on March 8th). That would beat the alltime high SLP record of ~1058 mb in that area for ANY month, much less just for March. It also would be near the 1061 March record for all of Canada, which is way up north in N Nunavut per this site: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html But the model consensus has been for very high SLPs (1050+) in that region for then, regardless of how high it will actually get. So, that will be interesting to follow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Quite the change in the 12z GFS beginning late next week. TW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 25 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Quite the change in the 12z GFS beginning late next week. TW Freezes are showing on the 12Z GFS for many inland areas March 10-12. That would be the first time for three in a row since very early February should they verify. Plus some areas get another on March 16th. Would at least feel like winter for a change. Also, great upslope snow potential is showing for the NC mountains at least. 12Z GEFS is the coldest run yet for March 9th-11th+. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 34 minutes ago, GaWx said: Freezes are showing on the 12Z GFS for many inland areas March 10-12. That would be the first time for three in a row since very early February should they verify. Plus some areas get another on March 16th. Would at least feel like winter for a change. Also, great upslope snow potential is showing for the NC mountains at least. 12Z GEFS is the coldest run yet for March 9th-11th+. Yeah big changes to the colder side of things with the 12z gfs and it's ens for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 The GEPS really looks nice in the extended range.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 The gefs brings down the cold much quicker.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 This is a cold look in March out in the ENS.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Euro bringing the damn heat fellas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 The most impressive run on the euro yet. 12z euro.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 12 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Euro bringing the damn heat fellas. HEAT??? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just now, snowbird1230 said: Heat???? Lol Only one run but the Euro ens has been honking at this for several days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Eps has cold heading in around the 11th.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Eps at hour 228.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 32 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The most impressive run on the euro yet. 12z euro. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk The 12Z Euro has 850 temps down to -10 to -11 C in my area at 12Z on March 12th! Although it is likely overdone, that could very well be the coldest 850 so late in the season. I mean that's very cold for midwinter, much less March 12th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 27 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 12Z Euro has 850 temps down to -10 to -11 C in my area at 12Z on March 12th! Although it is likely overdone, that could very well be the coldest 850 so late in the season. I mean that's very cold for midwinter, much less March 12th. Where is a storm or two with that cold, seems its cold and rain or cold enough for snow and sunny. We can't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just an absolute beautiful look on the eps. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Where's the moisture? Nobody wants cold and dry at this point - no peaches, no blueberries, etc. TW 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 If it’s not going to snow, I seriously cannot fathom why you’d want it to be cold and dry when it’s supposed to be Spring. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 32 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Where's the moisture? Nobody wants cold and dry at this point - no peaches, no blueberries, etc. TW 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: If it’s not going to snow, I seriously cannot fathom why you’d want it to be cold and dry when it’s supposed to be Spring. Listen guys I get it but it's weather. We have models that run and predict weather. We have ensembles and different wave lengths and a whole slew of stuff that effects our pattern. It is what it is. It's a damn 8-9 days ens model that gives you a rough estimate of the atmosphere. Like I said yall are screwed already so prepare for several late killing frosts. There isn't a damn thing anyone can do. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 This is showing the possibility of departures on the eps. Pretty significant for this time of the year.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 26 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Listen guys I get it but it's weather. We have models that run and predict weather. We have ensembles and different wave lengths and a whole slew of stuff that affects our pattern. It is what it is. It's a damn 8-9 days ens model that gives you a rough estimate of the atmosphere. Like I said yall are screwed already so prepare for several late killing frosts. There isn't a damn thing anyone can do. What Met1985 said. This is literally a wx forecasting discussion thread. Why wouldn't we discuss this stuff, especially with it being so different from almost the entire winter and potentially highly anomalous for mid March? It is what it is. Besides, this discussion may allow some people to prepare for the cold to mitigate potential damage. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, tarheelwx said: Where's the moisture? Nobody wants cold and dry at this point - no peaches, no blueberries, etc. TW Not everybody wants the same thing. I try to leave my feelings out of these discussions as much as possible. For example, I don't want tornadoes anywhere near me, but don't complain if they're discussed. Discussing them doesn't make them occur and if anything it increases awareness of the danger. Anyway, the 12Z Euro was unreal but likely overdone as I said. Cold is often dry. Nothing unusual about that at all. Of course, that doesn't mean it will play out that way ultimately. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 That's just an ordinary 1060 mb high at hour 138 of the 18Z GFS plunging down. Nothing to see here. Move along. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: If it’s not going to snow, I seriously cannot fathom why you’d want it to be cold and dry when it’s supposed to be Spring. Some of us will take any type of dry at this point. 70 and sunny is preferred but I'll take 30 and sunny over mud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 18z gfs has like a backdoor cold front coming down. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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