Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

In other words: here we go again. Cold ain’t making it to the SE in time, if at all.

 Although I'm not giving up yet due to inherent uncertainties that far out, I don't blame anyone who does based on how amazingly relentless the warmth has been overall this winter along with the related cold bias of the models. Other than a few days here and there, about the only time the model consensus wasn't too cold this winter was for the period 12/17-26, which was nailed well.
 

 From what I understand from several pro mets, the record warmth in the Maritime Continent of the W Pacific has a good bit to do with the unrelenting warmth/SE ridge of the last few years. This leads to a dominant Pacific flow similar to what it would be in the MC MJO phases regardless of the actual MJO phase, which also favors a SE ridge. Of course, the La Niña of the last 3 years is an important warmth favoring factor overall, too.
 
 Why the models can't ever seem to get a clue and handle this as opposed to so often being too cold even out just a few days in many cases is a mystery. Isn't the added ocean warmth an input in the model initializations?

[StantonParkHoya]

It’s not for lack of trying Ga. I was almost  willing to accept the snow just so you got some payback for your War and Peace word count in this thread.

[Grayman]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

In other words: here we go again. Cold ain’t making it to the SE in time, if at all.

Its over man. You need to report to the SS immediately. 

[Coach McGuirk]

A mid march cold snap wouldn't surprise me.  But snow would.

[GaWx]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z EPS mean backed off a good bit from the prior EPS trend of a higher SLP peak in SW Canada for ~3/8. The 0Z had as mentioned a very impressive and rarely seen on day 10 of the EPS 1046 mb along with 20% of the members with a record high SW Canada SLP for March. The 12Z has only 1041 with increased troughing just off the west coast. This lead to lower SLP and thus not as cold in the Midwest.

 And now today's 0Z EPS mean not only went back to a strong/large high in SW Canada on 3/7-8 like on the run from 24 hours ago, it has SE ridging unlike on any earlier EPS disappear on March 8th (the last AN SE day). There is none the rest of the run as BN temperatures take over, making it easily the coldest EPS yet for March 9th+ in the E US.

 This run will be the one used by the Weeklies later today. What will be notable is that the week Mar 6-13 will be significantly colder in the E US than what the prior Weeklies had. Will the 12Z run again backtrack? It certainly wouldn't surprise me if it does for the 2nd week in March since this run was so much different from prior runs.

[PackGrad05]

The 00Z EPS really likes the 11-13 time period...  Still watching that.

Also watching severe potential for Friday.  

[NorthHillsWx]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 And now today's 0Z EPS mean not only went back to a strong/large high in SW Canada on 3/7-8 like on the run from 24 hours ago, it has SE ridging unlike on any earlier EPS disappear on March 8th (the last AN SE day). There is none the rest of the run as BN temperatures take over, making it easily the coldest EPS yet for March 9th+ in the E US.

 This run will be the one used by the Weeklies later today. What will be notable is that the week Mar 6-13 will be significantly colder in the E US than what the prior Weeklies had. Will the 12Z run again backtrack? It certainly wouldn't surprise me if it does for the 2nd week in March since this run was so much different from prior runs.

 

[GaWx]

35 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

 

 There's a big difference in the SE at H5 between the 12Z GEFS (weak ridge and NN) and the 0Z EPS (weak trough and 10 dm BN) as of March 11th. Will the 12Z EPS backtrack again to warmer? The odds favor it imo.

[JoshM]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 There's a big difference in the SE at H5 between the 12Z GEFS (weak ridge and NN) and the 0Z EPS (weak trough and 10 dm BN) as of March 11th. Will the 12Z EPS backtrack again to warmer? The odds favor it imo.

We get screwed so much, we should really start charging for it!

[olafminesaw]

Starting to become somewhat concerned about the wind threat Friday afternoon/evening. All the globals have around 50 mph gusts across the Piedmont. Could very well be overdone, but a pretty wide wind field, regardless of track.

[Met1985]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

 And now today's 0Z EPS mean not only went back to a strong/large high in SW Canada on 3/7-8 like on the run from 24 hours ago, it has SE ridging unlike on any earlier EPS disappear on March 8th (the last AN SE day). There is none the rest of the run as BN temperatures take over, making it easily the coldest EPS yet for March 9th+ in the E US.

 This run will be the one used by the Weeklies later today. What will be notable is that the week Mar 6-13 will be significantly colder in the E US than what the prior Weeklies had. Will the 12Z run again backtrack? It certainly wouldn't surprise me if it does for the 2nd week in March since this run was so much different from prior runs.

Todays 12z eps run is even more impressive and not way out in la la land either. Looks colder for sure with the cold pressing down further.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Todays 12z eps run is even more impressive and not way out in la la land either. Looks colder for sure with the cold pressing down further.

 Indeed, I had just looked at it and agree that it is the coldest EPS run to date at 2m late in the run though it was slightly warmer than the prior run through about 288. It became slightly colder than the 0Z 312-348, making it the coldest run yet for 3/12-3. It is also colder at hours 288+ at 850 and at hours 276+ at H5.

 Needless to say, we have significant differences between the EPS and the GEFS/GEPS at 12Z as the EPS is colder earlier by 1-2 days per my eyeballs and has quite a bit lower H5.
 
 At H5 at RDU, the EPS gets down to 548 dm as of hour 282 (on 3/11 at 6Z) which is a notable 14 dm BN, and is the lowest H5 to date for then on any EPS. Here's the H5 trend for 6Z on 3/11:

2/25 12Z run: 565

2/26 0Z run: 560

2/26 12Z run: 560

2/27 0Z run: 552

2/27 12Z run: 548 vs 558 GEPS vs 564 GEFS

 Also, this EPS has the most wintry precip in the SE of any EPS yet March 10-12 vs no wintry precip of note on the GEFS/GEPS. Model war!

 The problem for those who prefer cold and thus prefer the EPS to be on the right track is that all of the models have been too cold on most days of this winter outside of late Dec. Is it going to finally be different this time?? One thing to keep in mind is that for the first time this winter there's the after effects of a combo of the mid Feb major SSW (which is only now starting to cause big changes in the troposphere, making it extra difficult for the models to handle) that dropped strat winds at 10 mb at 60N to -13 m/s and tomorrow's drop to a very impressive and rare -19 m/s. That is the lowest since Feb of 2018, which means an extremely weak SPV (makes it much easier than normal for cold to move down into the mid latitudes):

 Edit: Also, La Niña is about dead finally with last week's Nino SST anomaly up to -0.3 C.

[PackGrad05]

The last 2 runs of the EPS have been a nice look for March 9 - 13 time period.  

[purduewx80]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Edit: Also, La Niña is about dead finally with last week's Nino SST anomaly up to -0.3 C.

Was just looking at GOES-18 this afternoon and noticed how different it looks out there. Sub-tropical jet showing up and all.

The SST anomaly animation shows the warming to neutral nicely. 

 

[purduewx80]

Although it's definitely going to be difficult to get snow or ice without a threat-the-needle situation or elevation on your side, I think one of the higher confidence impacts in the SSW- and MJO-forced cool down is going to be to agriculture in the South.

Personally, I have strawberries and blueberries blooming currently, the asparagus is up and all the cool-season veggies are thriving. It'll be easy for me to cover but not so simple for all the commercial farms to mitigate a potential hard freeze.

The GEPS ensembles are showing the reasonable worst-case scenario with widespread 20s to the coast and some teens to the Piedmont. The 10th percentile is the number on the left, so the extreme outliers are even colder. EPS is not quite as cold as the Canadian. Obviously, there's a lot of spread, but that whole period is increasingly ripe for at least a couple of anomalously cold days/nights.

[Upstate Tiger]

Looking like Friday could see some severe weather in the SE.  

[JoshM]

This will be the first year someone starts a thread for a frost/freeze

[jpbart]

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

Although it's definitely going to be difficult to get snow or ice without a threat-the-needle situation or elevation on your side, I think one of the higher confidence impacts in the SSW- and MJO-forced cool down is going to be to agriculture in the South.

Personally, I have strawberries and blueberries blooming currently, the asparagus is up and all the cool-season veggies are thriving. It'll be easy for me to cover but not so simple for all the commercial farms to mitigate a potential hard freeze.

The GEPS ensembles are showing the reasonable worst-case scenario with widespread 20s to the coast and some teens to the Piedmont. The 10th percentile is the number on the left, so the extreme outliers are even colder. EPS is not quite as cold as the Canadian. Obviously, there's a lot of spread, but that whole period is increasingly ripe for at least a couple of anomalously cold days/nights.

It was not until I was growing banana plants that I realized how often a cold shot hard freeze happens after a warm spell.  Things start blooming, pollen is in the air, people worry about summer heat and wham!  Hard freeze. From my experience this is the most likely outcome, especially here around Columbia SC.  Actual snow would be an epic surprise.  Looks like the peach crop could be in trouble. 

[GaWx]

 Today's Euro weeklies, which are an extension of today's 0Z EPS, vs the prior run are as was already known colder for the week March 6-13. They are about the same as the prior run for March 13-20. However, the week March 20-27 is actually warmer vs the prior run. So, whereas the prior run's coldest period was March 13-27, the new run's coldest period is March 6-20 (more specifically more like March 10-20). This is all fwiw and very much subject to change on the next run, of course.

[wilsonvoid1]

anyone have the euro 18z i want to know what the deal is with the fridays storm


.

[StantonParkHoya]

19 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

anyone have the euro 18z i want to know what the deal is with the fridays storm


.

Do you live in KC or Chicago? What do you mean?

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Do you live in KC or Chicago? What do you mean?

Lol, I think he lives in the NYC region and accidentally posted in the wrong forum.

 Meanwhile, the 0Z GEFS in week 2 just about completely caved to the colder EPS!

[Met1985]

56 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Lol, I think he lives in the NYC region and accidentally posted in the wrong forum.

 Meanwhile, the 0Z GEFS in week 2 just about completely caved to the colder EPS!

Yeah the GEFS has a much colder look to it. 

[buckeyefan1]

It’s looking rough Thursday and Friday 

[PackGrad05]

Friday isn't looking quite as bad for RDU based on the track of the low (further north and west).

That's a good thing but got to keep monitoring.

[purduewx80]

4 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It’s looking rough Thursday and Friday 

It’s weird or perhaps to be expected that the SPC didn’t go with higher probabilities Friday over AL/GA/TN. The low is still deepening and wind fields overall are stronger than Thursday, with more than enough instability progged.  Still some timing differences with the front but it’s slowed down a bit, pretty much like every other cut off low. A lot of the point fcst soundings highlight PDS tornado potential. 

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

It’s weird or perhaps to be expected that the SPC didn’t go with higher probabilities Friday over AL/GA/TN. The low is still deepening and wind fields overall are stronger than Thursday, with more than enough instability progged.  Still some timing differences with the front but it’s slowed down a bit, pretty much like every other cut off low. A lot of the point fcst soundings highlight PDS tornado potential. 

I would imagine they're still nailing down the area that will be the highest threat. Right now the I-85 corridor, from Atlanta to Charlotte, is looking to be the highest threat and should be in the enhanced tomorrow. A wide region has 40-50kt sustained winds at 925mb, which wouldn't have trouble mixing to the surface. As for tornadoes, it seems hodographs are showing somewhat more unidirectional shear than optimal (more hockey stick shaped than curved), but I could be wrong. 

[buckeyefan1]

9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

It’s weird or perhaps to be expected that the SPC didn’t go with higher probabilities Friday over AL/GA/TN. The low is still deepening and wind fields overall are stronger than Thursday, with more than enough instability progged.  Still some timing differences with the front but it’s slowed down a bit, pretty much like every other cut off low. A lot of the point fcst soundings highlight PDS tornado potential. 

I was surprised as well, but I'm just an old weenie who doesn't have to answer to the public  

[SnowDawg]

That surface low is still bouncing around a lot on guidance. We are definitely still in the window where big NW trends are on the table and if so then the focus of the dynamics probably shifts more into TN, KY, and OH. Just spitballing but maybe the reason for the SPC not really upping the ante for any specific region on Friday. 

[wncsnow]

Mid March could be a legit threat for wintry in NC. Especially I 40 north.