GaWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 GFS/GEFS trends through 12Z are clearly going in the -NAO direction late in the runs with a -NAO being suggested by March 1st. The trend is also suggesting that it may start in very late Feb as 25% of the 0Z GEFS members have a -NAO by Feb 27th. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 The 12Z GEFS mean has a pretty impressive -NAO that gets going late on 2/28 and then strengthens. The chance of a -NAO getting started very late Feb/start of March is increasing. Edit: Regarding the 0Z GEFS mean, 25% of the members had a sub -0.25 NAO by Feb 27th. The 12Z GEFS mean is even closer to a -NAO on Feb 27th than was the 0Z. This tells me that the chance of a -NAO starting already in very late Feb is increasing. Edit again: Remember that nice looking -NAO on the Euro weeklies from last Thursday that then didn't look as good on yesterday's weeklies? The latest trends are heading back to that Thursday weeklies look. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 hours ago, GaWx said: The 12Z GEFS mean has a pretty impressive -NAO that gets going late on 2/28 and then strengthens. The chance of a -NAO getting started very late Feb/start of March is increasing. Edit: Regarding the 0Z GEFS mean, 25% of the members had a sub -0.25 NAO by Feb 27th. The 12Z GEFS mean is even closer to a -NAO on Feb 27th than was the 0Z. This tells me that the chance of a -NAO starting already in very late Feb is increasing. Edit again: Remember that nice looking -NAO on the Euro weeklies from last Thursday that then didn't look as good on yesterday's weeklies? The latest trends are heading back to that Thursday weeklies look. I say this with the love of the forum in mind on Valentines Day @GaWx, you have typed volumes of highly valuable information into this thread over the last few weeks. More than most of us will ever understand. And I'm confident it is all accurate given your creds. But COME ON MAN!!! Despite all of your excellence this forum has seen didly squat!! So in the immortal words of one Elvis Presley, we're gonna need "a little less conversation, a little more action please". Time to dial up that Amazon truck full of snow sir. My app says he is always 5 stops away and he never shows up! Appreciate all your efforts! 4 2 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: I say this with the love of the forum in mind on Valentines Day @GaWx, you have typed volumes of highly valuable information into this thread over the last few weeks. More than most of us will ever understand. And I'm confident it is all accurate given your creds. But COME ON MAN!!! Despite all of your excellence this forum has seen didly squat!! So in the immortal words of one Elvis Presley, we're gonna need "a little less conversation, a little more action please". Time to dial up that Amazon truck full of snow sir. My app says he is always 5 stops away and he never shows up! Appreciate all your efforts! Thank you and lmao! Keep in mind that for the first time this winter there's about to be a major SSW. Don't forget that the prior SSW, which is what got me excited and thus posting a lot more starting in mid January, ended up being a "minor" SSW and it lead to limited effects on the E US. Now this time we have the "real deal" about to occur, which increases the chance to lead to -NAO/-AO/colder E US/increased wintry wx in the E US as compared to the after effects of a minor SSW. Edit: I think it is important to not get so emotionally tied to the outcome. Edit 2: Even stronger indication of -NAO starting Feb 28th on 18Z GEFS vs 12Z 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 - The GEFS based NAO forecast has slowly been trending toward the negative direction. Yesterday's 0Z GEFS had 8 members (25%) of 31 with a sub -0.25 NAO by Feb 27th. Today's has ~10 of the 31 with sub -0.25 by 2/27. Also, the mean line already gets down to 0 on Feb 26th, which is two days earlier than yesterday's showed. - The end of Feb is still out 13 days, which is still far enough out to make the model skill in the troposphere low and much lower than that for the stratosphere at day 13 (as I showed recently). Thus, confidence in even ensemble means is still low, especially considering that a major SSW is now occurring. - The major SSW is underway with the latest GFS based forecast of 10 mb 60N winds for a dip to an impressive -16 m/s on 2/18 vs -15 on yesterday's forecast. So, the GFS is staying the course. - If there is going to be significant cooling in the E US as a direct result of this SSW, it would likely not get going until at least 10-14 days after it. That would mean starting near the end of Feb at the earliest. This idea on the timing hasn't changed at all since I started talking about this newest SSW. The warmth during it and following it has been expected. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 We already have some pollen and leaf out on some trees. Absolutely insane. I have never seen this before so early. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppalachianWedge Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 We already have some pollen and leaf out on some trees. Absolutely insane. I have never seen this before so early.Can't recall if it was two or three years ago, but that particular year I started mowing my lawn between the first and second week of February and didn't stop mowing until the following December. I would have to believe there would have been pollen then if the grass was already growing at a rate it needed mowing. Can't speak for the tree leaves.Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 23 minutes ago, eyewall said: We already have some pollen and leaf out on some trees. Absolutely insane. I have never seen this before so early. Happened in 2012? also I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 15 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Happened in 2012? also I believe Yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Gotta love the absurd ridge forecast next week by the EPS. The 12Z op run even had 5970+ meter 500 mb heights over the Gulf, which is impressive for any time of year. Should be a lot of record highs next week south of wherever that strong front sets up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Monster SER showing up LR on 18z GFS as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Grass needs mowing and trees are budding. It’s spring time folks. Maybe we get a freak snow event but winter is over 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Grass needs mowing and trees are budding. It’s spring time folks. Maybe we get a freak snow event but winter is over Same here. Don't see temps below freezing for the next 10 days + here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Yeah, it is looking bad for cold lovers for the foreseeable future. If the SSW wild card doesn't produce a big change afterward, winter may very well be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Yeah, it is looking bad for cold lovers for the foreseeable future. If the SSW wild card doesn't produce a big change afterward, winter may very well be over. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 18 minutes ago, JoshM said: LMAO! If need be, I'm going down with the ship! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: LMAO! If need be, I'm going down with the ship! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Let's have a meet up, we can all go to the beach! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, JoshM said: Let's have a meet up, we can all go to the beach! But just 2-3 days later, look out for potential CAD cold! All ensembles have a nice sized Canadian high coming down into the N Plains on 2/24-5 and then the chance for it to wedge down to the SE just afterward. Bathing suits followed closely behind by heavy coats? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 3 hours ago, GaWx said: LMAO! If need be, I'm going down with the ship! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 3 hours ago, GaWx said: But just 2-3 days later, look out for potential CAD cold! All ensembles have a nice sized Canadian high coming down into the N Plains on 2/24-5 and then the chance for it to wedge down to the SE just afterward. Bathing suits followed closely behind by heavy coats? I’ll start a thread. The last one was so successful. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 31 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: I’ll start a thread. The last one was so successful. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 CAD? Never heard of her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 4 hours ago, GaWx said: But just 2-3 days later, look out for potential CAD cold! All ensembles have a nice sized Canadian high coming down into the N Plains on 2/24-5 and then the chance for it to wedge down to the SE just afterward. Bathing suits followed closely behind by heavy coats? The only CAD relevant now is Cadbury. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 CAD now stands for cool(er) air damming. You know 50s and rain. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 3 hours ago, BooneWX said: CAD? Never heard of her. They weren't talking about a female. They were describing the male who forecasted the recent snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 If you want snow head to Mauna Loa in Hawaii: Snow showers, mainly after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. Very windy, with an east southeast wind 29 to 34 mph decreasing to 23 to 28 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tonight Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 29. Strong and damaging winds, with a southeast wind 26 to 36 mph increasing to 37 to 47 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Friday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. Strong and damaging winds, with a southeast wind 37 to 47 mph decreasing to 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. Friday Night Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 29. Windy, with a southeast wind 23 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. Saturday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 35. Windy, with a southeast wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow showers. Low around 29. Breezy, with an east southeast wind 15 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 48 minutes ago, eyewall said: If you want snow head to Mauna Loa in Hawaii: Snow showers, mainly after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. Very windy, with an east southeast wind 29 to 34 mph decreasing to 23 to 28 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tonight Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 29. Strong and damaging winds, with a southeast wind 26 to 36 mph increasing to 37 to 47 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Friday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. Strong and damaging winds, with a southeast wind 37 to 47 mph decreasing to 25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. Friday Night Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 29. Windy, with a southeast wind 23 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. Saturday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 35. Windy, with a southeast wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow showers. Low around 29. Breezy, with an east southeast wind 15 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible Boy the weather is so crazy, snowing in Hawaii and us around Asheville and surrounding areas in the low country can't get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 If the ridge is going to pump next week let it pump is all I can say! At this juncture, I’d rather see it trend stronger and shunt the storm track well north. All of this rain we’ve had can kick rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, BooneWX said: If the ridge is going to pump next week let it pump is all I can say! At this juncture, I’d rather see it trend stronger and shunt the storm track well north. All of this rain we’ve had can kick rocks. I agree 100%. Another inch at least tonight and more next week seems a certainty. We are looking at yet another month of well above average rainfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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