NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Strangely a cool pool ULL snow event seems more plausible than snow by normal means in this sh*t pattern. We can’t do normal right so how bout we try the ‘exotic’ look? About a 1/100 chance of this happening as GFS is really the only model onboard but hey, that’s probably the closest to digital snow anyone in this forum has gotten this year! GEFS has several members showing more southern solutions, btw. Still very, very low probability 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Strangely a cool pool ULL snow event seems more plausible than snow by normal means in this sh*t pattern. We can’t do normal right so how bout we try the ‘exotic’ look? About a 1/100 chance of this happening as GFS is really the only model onboard but hey, that’s probably the closest to digital snow anyone in this forum has gotten this year! GEFS has several members showing more southern solutions, btw. Still very, very low probability Would love to see another March 2009 event. We got 8" of heavy wet snow in the upstate with very intense thundersnow. I was driving back from Columbia that Sunday evening and it was blinding. Thankfully I had 4WD. That was a ULL event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 21 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Would love to see another March 2009 event. We got 8" of heavy wet snow in the upstate with very intense thundersnow. I was driving back from Columbia that Sunday evening and it was blinding. Thankfully I had 4WD. That was a ULL event. I was at Clemson for that, my freshman year. Was an awesome snowstorm! Pulled several cars out of the ditches on perimeter road with my truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 ICON coming in with a central NC snow “storm” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: ICON coming in with a central NC snow “storm” Even with the exotic look and perfect thread the needle track...we still get 90% rain, followed by a little non accumulating snow showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 UK last night also had some snow in western NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Even with the exotic look and perfect thread the needle track...we still get 90% rain, followed by a little non accumulating snow showers. I’d have to think if the ICON was taken verbatim with moderate to heavy snow for 4-5 hours and 32-33 degree surface temps, someone in a band would have some decent accumulation. That’s not necessarily an unusual look for these types of setups where accumulation is completely rate driven and usually sets up in narrow bands. That’s the risk we take with the “exotic look” though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’d have to think if the ICON was taken verbatim with moderate to heavy snow for 4-5 hours and 32-33 degree surface temps, someone in a band would have some decent accumulation. That’s not necessarily an unusual look for these types of setups where accumulation is completely rate driven and usually sets up in narrow bands. That’s the risk we take with the “exot 9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’d have to think if the ICON was taken verbatim with moderate to heavy snow for 4-5 hours and 32-33 degree surface temps, someone in a band would have some decent accumulation. That’s not necessarily an unusual look for these types of setups where accumulation is completely rate driven and usually sets up in narrow bands. That’s the risk we take with the “exotic look” though! And the GFS takes that look and dials it up to 11. What a run. Gosh, this is so sensitive to small changes, I hate tracking things like this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 hours ago, bess said: Shoot down a chinese weather balloon and weird things happen… . Released a weather virus? Darn clever those Chinese! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Needless to say, a more progressive look than the 12z GFS, with that track, is a near certainty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 CMC says NOPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Lock it in! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: CMC says NOPE At the surface sure. But at H5 it has trended much closer towards the GFS it's just too positive tilt and doesn't get fully cutoff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Not the worst 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: Lock it in! I'll start a thread...The Great 2023 Valentines Weekend Blizzard 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 So the GEFS still largely favors more of a positive tilt solution meaning very little snow outside the mtns with NW flow. This is apparent when you look at the individual members snowfall. The mean is being generated by a handful that do go neutral/negative and produce heavy snow. It's not all bad though, despite that being the consensus at the moment the trend towards more amplified solutions is clear. If we can keep it going for a few more runs I'd expect the snow mean to start jumping big time. It's all a wait and see game right now. But at least it's a plausible look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 Sundays in a row! I am ashamed that some of you people have already thrown in the towel! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 That 12z GFS depiction would be an extremely impressive band of snow somewhere in central NC. Sounding looks very similar to the March 2009 event in the upstate with potential for thunder snow. Also some pretty good winds with the SLP winding up. All in all that would be a paste bomb. We’re roughly 100 hours out so, hey, this is the closest we’ve been this ‘winter’! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: That 12z GFS depiction would be an extremely impressive band of snow somewhere in central NC. Sounding looks very similar to the March 2009 event in the upstate with potential for thunder snow. Also some pretty good winds with the SLP winding up. All in all that would be a paste bomb. We’re roughly 100 hours out so, hey, this is the closest we’ve been this ‘winter’! Yep. Getting out of Powerball into scratch-off territory. Matching three numbers instead of 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I'm so confused. 4 days out and my point and click for the Triad shows 57° and partly sunny?? I give up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 For posterity’s sake- the 12z CMC trended much better than previous runs. Much more neutral tilt and slower. Not as amped as GFS and obviously doesn’t get it done with the dynamic cooling (what this entire setup relies on) but it’s another model suite that actually looks very similar to GFS at upper levels than just a few runs ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: For posterity’s sake- the 12z CMC trended much better than previous runs. Much more neutral tilt and slower. Not as amped as GFS and obviously doesn’t get it done with the dynamic cooling (what this entire setup relies on) but it’s another model suite that actually looks very similar to GFS at upper levels than just a few runs ago Yep. Curious to see the Euro shortly. It had this setup a couple of days ago but backed off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 For what it’s worth, as 12z today 100 hours out we have: GFS- bowling ball ULL ideal setup for heavy snow and dynamic cooling where banding sets up CMC- similar to GFS in placement/timing but more neutral tilt and too slow to ramp up for same dynamic system ICON- very similar to GFS Dare I say, we have something realistic to track? Doubt Euro goes full GFS but if it has a similar idea (hasn’t been far off) I’d say we’re really in the game. Personally, ULL setups are very exciting bc they can be so dynamic and can lead to glory when nothing else will work (this year). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: For posterity’s sake- the 12z CMC trended much better than previous runs. Much more neutral tilt and slower. Not as amped as GFS and obviously doesn’t get it done with the dynamic cooling (what this entire setup relies on) but it’s another model suite that actually looks very similar to GFS at upper levels than just a few runs ago The Canadians ensemble also made big movements as well. Much like the GEFS it's sort of split right now, but the trend is clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: The Canadians ensemble also made big movements as well. Much like the GEFS it's sort of split right now, but the trend is clear. GEFS made big improvements too from previous runs. Easily the best yet for this system. Op was not on an island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Nothing like seeing the Hot sign on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I’ll say this- if the only storm this year is someone from the forum outside the mountains getting nuked in a narrow band by an anomalous upper level bowling ball low in an otherwise abysmal pattern with absolutely no cold air source even remotely available nearby with zero Atlantic blocking and sandwiched between two spring like warmups, it would just be so fitting 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 12z EURO through 96 has trended better... Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’ll say this- if the only storm this year is someone from the forum outside the mountains getting nuked in a narrow band by an anomalous upper level bowling ball low in an otherwise abysmal pattern with absolutely no cold air source even remotely available nearby with zero Atlantic blocking and sandwiched between two spring like warmups, it would just be so fitting I think the Mid-Atlantic forum would have to be melted down and sold for scrap if that happened and they got left out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Euro trended better for sure. Still did not go full GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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