Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

[olafminesaw]

[eyewall]

29 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

RDU jackpot! Lock it in

[GaWx]

 The main hope I have for a cold last week of Feb into early March largely hinges on the degree of strat Arctic warming and disruption of the SPV at midmonth. GEFS runs since 12Z yesterday have continued to show significant warming along with a southward displacement of the SPV to N Scandinavia at midmonth. This is the kind of strat chaos that can shake up the pattern enough based on past cases to lead to a couple of week+ colder pattern in the SE that would start within 10-14 days of the "onset" of a SSW. With that kind of timing, any SSW generated cold could make it to the SE as early as during the last week of Feb. The MJO would likely be in a more favorable position at late month into early March to help out.

 Meanwhile, model consensus is still suggesting a short moderate cold snap ~2/11. The 12Z Euro *fwiw* even gives parts of NC several inches of snow then.

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro with a major storm 10 days out. Notice I said major storm, not major snowstorm. But it’s close 

[jpbart]

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The main hope I have for a cold last week of Feb into early March largely hinges on the degree of strat Arctic warming and disruption of the SPV at midmonth. GEFS runs since 12Z yesterday have continued to show significant warming along with a southward displacement of the SPV to N Scandinavia at midmonth. This is the kind of strat chaos that can shake up the pattern enough based on past cases to lead to a couple of week+ colder pattern in the SE that would start within 10-14 days of the "onset" of a SSW. With that kind of timing, any SSW generated cold could make it to the SE as early as during the last week of Feb. The MJO would likely be in a more favorable position at late month into early March to help out.

 Meanwhile, model consensus is still suggesting a short moderate cold snap ~2/11. The 12Z Euro *fwiw* even gives parts of NC several inches of snow then.

I am expecting a solid March cold blast to arrive just in time to hard freeze all of the early blooms due to unseasonably mild wet weather.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, jpbart said:

I am expecting a solid March cold blast to arrive just in time to hard freeze all of the early blooms due to unseasonably mild wet weather.

 The table (SSW plus MJO) per models is being set for this scenario though it could start during the last part of Feb. 

 I just did a time lapse on Tropical Tidbits of 0Z GEFS runs at 10 mb for the forecast date of 2/15 starting with the 1/26 run and ending with the 2/1 run. It clearly shows a continuing trend of a further S SPV along with a further N high. The further S the SPV and the further N the high, the more the disruption/warming.

 The 2/1 run location of the SPV on 2/15 is ~700 miles S of the 1/26 run's position, which was near Svalbard (80N). Now it is over N Norway (70N). Also, the main high as of 2/15 has moved 700 miles N from S of Alaska (55N) on the 1/26 run to Alaska (65N) on the 2/1 run.

 Along with this, the N Pole at 10 mb has warmed as of 2/15 from -64 C on the 1/26 run to -42 C on today's run. So, it has warmed 22 C just within 6 days of runs for the same forecast point (2/15).

 So, the GEFS has gone from showing nothing interesting in the strat 6 days ago (cold SPV over the Arctic) to a significant disruption/warming today for 2/15. That's why I didn't start talking about this new warming til yesterday. And the trend toward more disruption/warming on future runs may not be over.

[SnowDawg]

Lol, our luck somehow the forecasted rapid onset El Niño is going to turn into La Niña coming back for round four by the time we get past summer.

[CaryWx]

9 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Lol, our luck somehow the forecasted rapid onset El Niño is going to turn into La Niña coming back for round four by the time we get past summer.

4 'ninas in a row is highly rare.  When was the last one?

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS shows a plethora of possible hits on the 18z run. Do I think any will happen? Absolutely not. But it’s not a torch like we were thinking a few days ago and there is a lot of energy flying around, a lot of good storm tracks. Fly in the ointment…. Sigh….. cold air availability 

[StantonParkHoya]

11 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

4 'ninas in a row is highly rare.  When was the last one?

Never

[GaWx]

 If this isn't a major SSW on the 18Z GFS at 10 mb, then I don't know what one is: high in the Arctic has replaced the SPV with E winds at 60N all around it, the Arctic is much warmer than normal, and the SPV has plunged WAY south to 50N with it stretched/splitting. I know this is just the GFS late in the run (very unreliable), but the trends the last few days have been headed toward a midmonth disruption/warming. If this were an isolated GFS run showing this with no prior support of strat changes at midmonth, I wouldn't have posted thi:

[CaryWx]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 If this isn't a major SSW on the 18Z GFS at 10 mb, then I don't know what one is: high in the Arctic has replaced the SPV with E winds at 60N all around it, the Arctic is much warmer than normal, and the SPV has plunged WAY south to 50N with it stretched/splitting. I know this is just the GFS late in the run (very unreliable), but the trends the last few days have been headed toward a midmonth disruption/warming. If this were an isolated GFS run showing this with no prior support of strat changes at midmonth, I wouldn't have posted thi:

Isn't this pretty late to make any difference winterwx wise.  Even for NC outside the mountains?  Downstream effects would be after Feb 25th right?

[Coach McGuirk]

I get the feeling we're grasping at straws now.

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, CaryWx said:

Isn't this pretty late to make any difference winterwx wise.  Even for NC outside the mountains?  Downstream effects would be after Feb 25th right?

 Although earlier in the month (like the timing of the current minor SSW) would have been optimal, this later one definitely wouldn't be too late to potentially have significant downstream effects in the SE outside of the mountains. Yes, likely ~2/25 or later for first effects should they occur. The key would be getting the effects in the first place and then getting them to start quickly enough. If they can start 2/25ish, that would give many in the SE still another week or so of prime climo to work with. After all, March 2nd has had more SN/IP at RDU than any other day if I'm not mistaken. If the start of any effects is delayed til, say, March 10th, then it likely wouldn't do much good though even then there could be some benefit.

Edit: The 0Z GFS joins the prior two 18Z GFS runs in having what appears to be a major SSW at midmonth.

[lilj4425]

Phil just saved us all. 

[olafminesaw]

52 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Phil just saved us all. 

So...six more weeks of 35 and rain! 

[GaWx]

 Phil (not Hogtown Phil lol @pcbjr) must have seen the 6Z GFS' ~35C (63 F) 10 mb warming at the N Pole within 60 hours (6Z on 2/14 to 18Z on 2/16). That's pretty sudden! It also appears to have a 60N wind reversal at 10 mb from W to E with the high in the Arctic. So, I have these four GFS runs with a major SSW (60N wind reversal) very likely being depicted at 10 mb at midmonth: 18Z of 1/31, 18Z of 2/1, 0Z and 6Z of 2/2. So, three GFS runs in a row.

**Edit: 12Z GFS makes four GFS runs in a row

[eyewall]

Today is about as depressing as it gets with 30's and rain ahead of the next torch. See you next winter.

[strongwxnc]

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Today is about as depressing as it gets with 30's and rain ahead of the next torch. See you next winter.

Its tough for sure...

[Upstate Tiger]

38 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Its tough for sure...

We’ve had a lot of cold dreary days this winter.  Very few golfing days since November and when we did, the course was very wet   

[GaWx]

 Because it is a potentially a game changer for the seemingly never-ending dreary SE pattern late this month into early March, especially when combined with what may very well be a favorable MJO and considering that wintry precip climo is still near peak into the first 3 or so days of March, I expect to keep talking about a *potential* major SSW at midmonth as long as the threat shows on the models.

 The 12Z GFS is the 4th run in a row with a *major* SSW on it. Keep in mind that the SSW that just occurred didn't make "major" status, which requires a reversal of 10 mb winds from W to E at 60N. Typically that requires a high dominating the Arctic instead of the SPV. This last one's high didn't get there and allowed the SPV to remain too close/too strong despite the impressive warming. We'll need to see if the GFS holds onto a "major" SSW as we get closer. If it is still there 5 days from now, I'd then be very excited.

 In the meantime on the GEFS, the N Pole at 10 mb has warmed as of 0Z 2/15 from -64 C on the 0Z 1/26 run to -34 C on today's 12Z run. So, it has warmed a whopping 30 C (54 F) just within 7.5 days of runs at the N Pole for the same forecast point (2/15). So, the GEFS continues to trend in a SSW direction as the crucial period gets closer and the ensemble gets more of a clue.

Edit: 18Z GFS appears to me to be 5th in a row with major SSW 

[dsaur]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Although earlier in the month (like the timing of the current minor SSW) would have been optimal, this later one definitely wouldn't be too late to potentially have significant downstream effects in the SE outside of the mountains. Yes, likely ~2/25 or later for first effects should they occur. The key would be getting the effects in the first place and then getting them to start quickly enough. If they can start 2/25ish, that would give many in the SE still another week or so of prime climo to work with. After all, March 2nd has had more SN/IP at RDU than any other day if I'm not mistaken. If the start of any effects is delayed til, say, March 10th, then it likely wouldn't do much good though even then there could be some benefit.

Edit: The 0Z GFS joins the prior two 18Z GFS runs in having what appears to be a major SSW at midmonth.

The only blizzard I ever saw was March 13th.  I don't quit on blizzards 'til mid March, and snow until April 1st, and cold until after the Masters is over

[yotaman]

10 minutes ago, dsaur said:

The only blizzard I ever saw was March 13th.  I don't quit on blizzards 'til mid March, and snow until April 1st, and cold until after the Masters is over

I've been in 2. One in January 1996 and one in early March back in 1980. I generally give up on snow for the coast on March 1. I give up on freezes May 1.

[StantonParkHoya]

Anyone that wants snow after March 1 is a sicko

[Grayman]

On 1/30/2023 at 6:33 PM, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Good, then why are you still here trolling everybody else? I don't want to see any posts from you when there is a valid threat. Also, I don't appreciate being called a weenie for remembering that it's still January...... SMH.

Man , I truly didn’t mean anything bad toward you at all. I call myself a weenie and post some of the negative stuff just trying to get the conversation going some. I can see why you took it that way but I call all of us weenies for chasing snow that rarely comes . I’m truly sorry everyone took it that way and will stay away from negative post in the future. I mean this sincerely. Sorry again 

[JoshM]

2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Anyone that wants snow after March 1 is a sicko

[hickory]

Does it look good right now for snow chances in the southeast….. no, but it’s no reason to throw in the towel yet. Remember in March of 1960 it snowed 3 Wednesdays in a row. Also the 1993 Superstorm was in March. I would At least wait until March 1st before throwing in the towel. If it’s March 1st and the models are showing nothing in the future then I agree it’s over.


.

[Blizzard22]

10 minutes ago, hickory said:

Does it look good right now for snow chances in the southeast….. no, but it’s no reason to throw in the towel yet. Remember in March of 1960 it snowed 3 Wednesdays in a row. Also the 1993 Superstorm was in March. I would At least wait until March 1st before throwing in the towel. If it’s March 1st and the models are showing nothing in the future then I agree it’s over.


.

Things dont work like they used to. The climate was a lot different 30 and 60 years ago.

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, yotaman said:

I've been in 2. One in January 1996 and one in early March back in 1980. I generally give up on snow for the coast on March 1. I give up on freezes May 1.

 Even way on down here near the coast, where there's a T+ of wintry precip on average for the entire winter only once per 4 years, I don't give up til after the first week or so of March if the pattern is cold:

 - SAV's 2nd biggest snow on record was on March 4th! CHS also had a significant snow that day.

- Since 1890, there has been wintry precip (most but not all were traces) within the CHS-JAX corridor 15 years during the 1st week of March or once every 9 years on average. That's pretty notable for way down in this stretch at the coast. So, it isn't all that far-fetched to hope for wintry precip in this area in early March.

*Edit: Meanwhile, based on the projected MJO timing as well as the increasingly possible midmonth SSW that could exert its influence on the SE more quickly than the average lag, I'm not at all discounting the possibility of a cold last week of Feb. IF that were to happen, many more doors would open regarding the chance for SE wintry precip. A cold 2/22-3/7 or so would be quite interesting. The highly expected strat warming along with a very much weakened and displaced SPV introduces a lot of chaos and thus the possibility of a real pattern change! Buckle up, folks!

[NorthHillsWx]

Hate to say it, but if a late February SSW event is what we’re hanging out hats on for a winter storm in the south, the fat lady has sung. Looks like a blanking for the entire forum outside of the NW flow areas in the mountains. Any cold pushes are too transient in the progressive nina pattern were stuck in and even though were getting more rain than one would expect from a nina, its always associated with a warmup. Time to worry about our soggy yards and what were going to do to fix them during next weeks taste of spring.