Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro says I’ll serve you a dish of cold rain with a side of colder rain 

[wncsnow]

And a nice warmup coming after. 

[PackGrad05]

12Z EPS decreased a good bit from 00Z, but not a complete wash.

12Z GEFS is still showing a good thump of snow around 2/3.  With perhaps more around 2/8-2/10.

 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Euro's H5 SE ridge, when centered over the FL Strts late Wednesday morning is up at a whopping ~593 dm, the strongest yet for it on any of its runs.

[SnowDawg]

The wave of interest on the Euro is actually held back a day longer and then super suppressed down in Florida. Not that I think it matters though, if it were to come north it'd just bring its warmth with it. As others have noted the in between scenario needed just doesn't seem likely with no mechanism to hold the cold HP in place. Would take absolute perfect timing/placement between the high and low moving in sync.

[wncsnow]

Odds of a shutout

ATL-80%

CLT- 75%

RAL- 65%

GSP- 60%

HKY- 55%

 

[LakeNormanStormin]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Odds of a shutout

ATL-80%

CLT- 75%

RAL- 65%

GSP- 60%

HKY- 55%

 

So you're saying there's a chance...

[StantonParkHoya]

Both models now showing a big warm up after this wet/cool period

[ncgolfguy]

3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Odds of a shutout

ATL-80%

CLT- 75%

RAL- 65%

GSP- 60%

HKY- 55%

 

So if we only get a trace, does that count as a shut out?

[wncsnow]

2 hours ago, ncgolfguy said:

So if we only get a trace, does that count as a shut out?

No

[wncsnow]

Just now, wncsnow said:

No

Flurries don't count. A trace or dusting does. 

[Jmoon]

Looks like flooding issues around here next week. Nowhere to put anymore water. Currently 22 this morning.

[eyewall]

Looks like everyone will be pulling up a seat in the sanitarium soon enough. Not good.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

27 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Looks like everyone will be pulling up a seat in the sanitarium soon enough. Not good.

Yeah, I felt sure things would be looking up by the end of January...... doesn't look promising anymore.

[PackGrad05]

The 00Z EPS rebounded quite a bit from yesterdays 12Z. 25/50 members showing something vs 5/50 last night.
GEFS not on board as much.


.

[AppalachianWedge]

Looks like everyone will be pulling up a seat in the sanitarium soon enough. Not good.

Oh, I thought this was the sanitarium...

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[BooneWX]

I’m personally pulling for a record breaking SER that cuts the storms through the plains and ends this deluge of water each week. 

[franklin NCwx]

13 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’m personally pulling for a record breaking SER that cuts the storms through the plains and ends this deluge of water each week. 

We had those patterns back in the mid 2000's. Would take 60 and sunny over this crap!

[GaWx]

 The coldest of the winter to date by a good margin is going to be close to, if not in, the NE possibly down to NYC a week from now (2/4) per the 12Z consensus. Something to watch to see how strong of a wedge, if any, would then get the low level cold into the SE. The 12Z Euro is the coldest run yet next weekend in much of the SE with hard freezes at least down into NC. The GFS combines this strong NE cold with moisture to yield wintry precip in the main Carolina CAD region. 
 

 The PNA has trended toward a decent + for next weekend.

Edit: the 12Z Euro has the coldest in Boston and Hartford since at least 2016!

[GaWx]

 More on how cold next weekend's airmass might be in the NE, which would be relevant to how cold the SE may get via wedging:
 

 For the record (not because I believe it though it will be interesting to follow), the 12Z Euro has -2 at LaGuardia at 168! That would be the coldest there since the -3 of 1/19/1994. But that's very likely going to verify too cold being that it is an extreme operational run at day 7 and there has been a cold bias with models overall. To show how extreme this run was, it had +10 there on the 0Z and low 20s on yesterday's 12Z. To compare for the 12Z runs, the UKMET has +6, GFS +18, CMC +19, and ICON +23. The 18Z GFS is much colder than its prior run and has +6.

 This extreme Euro run has -40C at 850 mb then in N ME, which would not be far from the coldest on record in the lower 48/just above the coldest in the Midwest for the 1/1985 extreme outbreak. The CMC also has -40C while the UKMET has -39C and the JMA has -37C. The 12Z GFS has it down "only" to ~-31C.

 Regardless of the likelihood that the 12Z Euro is overplaying the degree of cold at the surface, there may very well end up being the coldest air in a good number of years in the NE a week from now. 

[BornAgain13]

18z GFS brings back the storm with light snows in the Carolinas. Again, the timing is everything with this.

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[GaWx]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 More on how cold next weekend's airmass might be in the NE, which would be relevant to how cold the SE may get via wedging:
 

 For the record (not because I believe it though it will be interesting to follow), the 12Z Euro has -2 at LaGuardia at 168! That would be the coldest there since the -3 of 1/19/1994. But that's very likely going to verify too cold being that it is an extreme operational run at day 7 and there has been a cold bias with models overall. To show how extreme this run was, it had +10 there on the 0Z and low 20s on yesterday's 12Z. To compare for the 12Z runs, the UKMET has +6, GFS +18, CMC +19, and ICON +23. The 18Z GFS is much colder than its prior run and has +6.

 This extreme Euro run has -40C at 850 mb then in N ME, which would not be far from the coldest on record in the lower 48/just above the coldest in the Midwest for the 1/1985 extreme outbreak. The CMC also has -40C while the UKMET has -39C and the JMA has -37C. The 12Z GFS has it down "only" to ~-31C.

 Regardless of the likelihood that the 12Z Euro is overplaying the degree of cold at the surface, there may very well end up being the coldest air in a good number of years in the NE a week from now. 

Followup:

1) The 18Z ICON at 120 suggests that the maps for late week would likely have been colder than the 12Z in the NE.

2) The main reason for this post is the 18Z EPS 144 (end of run), which is significantly colder than the 12Z EPS 150 in the Midwest/NE and is absolutely frigid in SE Canada.

 Will 0Z runs back away, maintain, or be colder than earlier runs? We'll know soon.

Edit: 0Z ICON is much colder than the 12Z in the NE US next Saturday with a deeper plunge of the extremely cold SE Canada high! Also, that leads to a colder SE vs the 12Z due to much stronger wedging.

[NC_hailstorm]

Yep that wacky 0z GFS is dropping that PV into the USA late in the run.

[GaWx]

 The 0Z Euro/UK didn't back off at all in regard to the progged extremely cold airmass for next weekend in the NE. 850s once again get down to near record territory for the lower 48, close to -40C! NYC once again gets down to below 0 on 2/4!
 We'll see if this holds up in future runs. Also, this Euro was significantly colder in the SE vs the prior run.

Edit: This as modeled is a historic cold airmass in the NE and it has been trending colder and colder even down into the SE at the bottom of it. Example: dewpoints over the last 5 Euro runs have dropped 30-50 F for 2/4 at 12Z! There's no telling whether or not this colder trend for next weekend will continue. But if the trajectory of this airmass were to shift more in our direction, it could trend a lot colder. Something to watch!

[JoshM]

Where's the precip when you need it?

 

 

6z GFS is trolling us, wouldn't an all day flizzard be hilarious?

[BornAgain13]

12z GFS with a little light snow this week in VA and then the 12z CMC has a big Winter Storm for next weekend.

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[SnowDawg]

7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS with a little light snow this week in VA and then the 12z CMC has a big Winter Storm for next weekend.

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GFS started hinting at the same storm at 0z last night. It's still there now just a bit suppressed/late blooming. I generally like the look cause I feel CAD is our only hope in this pattern.

[GaWx]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z Euro/UK didn't back off at all in regard to the progged extremely cold airmass for next weekend in the NE. 850s once again get down to near record territory for the lower 48, close to -40C! NYC once again gets down to below 0 on 2/4!
 We'll see if this holds up in future runs. Also, this Euro was significantly colder in the SE vs the prior run.

Edit: This as modeled is a historic cold airmass in the NE and it has been trending colder and colder even down into the SE at the bottom of it. Example: dewpoints over the last 5 Euro runs have dropped 30-50 F for 2/4 at 12Z! There's no telling whether or not this colder trend for next weekend will continue. But if the trajectory of this airmass were to shift more in our direction, it could trend a lot colder. Something to watch!

Followup: The 12Z GFS is the coldest yet for NYC and vicinity. However, most of the rest of the models weren't as cold as at the 0Z runs.

[wncsnow]

What about the stratospheric warming? Too weak to effect our weather later in February or too early to tell? 

 

I feel like we need a hail mary at this point. 

[GaWx]

54 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

What about the stratospheric warming? Too weak to effect our weather later in February or too early to tell? 

 

I feel like we need a hail mary at this point. 

 Below is a graph showing that the 10 mb winds at 60N dropped sharply from 50 m/s on 1/23 to 12 m/s on 1/28. It needed to drop to <0 to be counted as a "major" SSW. Instead, I expect it to called a "minor" SSW. The models did a good job as they had it drop to this vicinity for a good number of days prior to 1/23.
 Does it going 75% of the way mean it will still likely have significant cooling effects on the SE starting mid to late Feb and lasting at least a couple of weeks thanks largely to a new long period of -AO? I don't have a good feel for it as the analyses were based on major SSWs. And the model consensus is forecasting some restrengthening of the SPV along with cooling back a good bit in early Feb.