BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just 1 run but again, the signal is there, other than timing, precip type and amounts. Good to have something to track. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 The 18Z GFS has almost pure snow for much of NC and has the heaviest snow there in many runs! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 For this winters standards, that’s a nuking of central NC by the 18z GFS. Unfortunately the way this year has gone, I would say we have a better shot of trying to gamble on a fart with the stomach bug than actually gambling on this evolution coming to fruition. I hope I’m wrong but it’s either going to suppress significantly or cut like hell.. no in-between it seems like. Suppression may make some happy in here in all honesty so we’ll see what happens. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 I’ll cash out with the 18z GFS lol 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’ll cash out with the 18z GFS lol yep. Happy hour again. Drinks half price. This model reminds me of my ex wife (who was not a model). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: yep. Happy hour again. Drinks half price. This model reminds me of my ex wife (who was not a model). Lmao. Ticket please . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 If the Carolina’s and southern Va luck into a widespread 4-8” snowstorm in this terrible year followed by a couple days of cold… Happy hour for both the model and myself 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 The GFS is trolling us hard. Again. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 One thing that is consistent on the GFS runs is really cold air dropping back into central and eastern Canada just prior to mid February after our warmup. It would only take a slight buckle in the jet stream to bring it south. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a CAD event or two mid month onward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 I feel like not much has changed over the past 24 hrs or so of models, gotta keep things in perspective. Something to watch, is it seems like although the cold and moisture are going to link up somewhere, the cold at the surface isn't nearly looking as impressive as many model runs yesterday. Just something to watch in terms of trends. Pretty common to see air masses moderate around these parts until not even a thread the needle storm track gets the job done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Perfect, even has a middle finger thru Charlotte... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 GFS consistently giving RDU rain to accumulating snow next Thursday. It won’t be pure but anything would be exciting. We have basically been shut out. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Perfect, even has a middle finger thru Charlotte...Where’s your location Josh?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 GFS/CMC/EURO all have a decent snow event for VA. Again, the storm signal is there. A lot of details to be ironed out. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Looking like a little, dare I say, consensus forming on the models inside 7 days for a wintry event nearby? Obviously it’s trended a little north but this is as close as we’ve been this year to a teachable event so I guess we’ll take what we can get. At least it seems to be trending away from a cutter. Need TPV displacement just a little to the south for more of the forum to get in but this looks like the type of moderate event that could work in this sh*t pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 No real strong CAD like we were seeing in some model runs. But a higher chance of all snow after the frontal passage. I worry in this sort of setup though, that surface temps will be warm and precip rates unimpressive. Usually that's a bad combo. But probably the best chance since the December PV flop. Chance of seeing flakes : 65% A coating + : 35% 1"+ : 15% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 As a member of the VA delegation. I really don’t like we are showing snow a week out. It’ll certainly shift. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 If I was in Lynchburg north I would be excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Should be a decent event for WV 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 This will end up good for DC and Maryland 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Well 12z GFS technically didn’t kill the threat but… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Yeah...the issue with the runs so far this morning is the storm has become more progressive, which doesn't allow the cold to move into place. No shocker really 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, olafminesaw said: Yeah...the issue with the runs so far this morning is the storm has become more progressive, which doesn't allow the cold to move into place. No shocker really Yep. And that makes the most sense in this pattern. CMC and Euro backing the energy in the SW and holding it into a consolidated system never made sense to me. These progressive slider systems are a pain to forecast and unless you get some last minute coastal development, are usually gone before they ever really arrived. We have scored on these occasionally, I think our only snow in 2020-21 winter came from a similar mode 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Yep. And that makes the most sense in this pattern. CMC and Euro backing the energy in the SW and holding it into a consolidated system never made sense to me. These progressive slider systems are a pain to forecast and unless you get some last minute coastal development, are usually gone before they ever really arrived. We have scored on these occasionally, I think our only snow in 2020-21 winter came from a similar mode It’s time to cliff dive my man. Winter is OVER. All weenies report to the cliff for a group dive. Man this winter killed me 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 37 minutes ago, Grayman said: It’s time to cliff dive my man. Winter is OVER. All weenies report to the cliff for a group dive. Man this winter killed me I promise you that you'll survive. I've seen snow only once (for ~two hours) in over 7 years and was frankly lucky to see that. I'm alive and well! What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. I still enjoy winter a lot more than any other season because of the larger variability as well as higher % of lower dewpoint days making it more ideal for me for outdoors. And I can always dream of seeing another miracle snow whether it be this winter or some winter down the road. Meanwhile, I'm still hoping for another cold period later in Feb. As a matter of fact, La Niña/cold ENSO is (perhaps surprisingly) more conducive in Feb/March to an extreme cold shot into the SE than warm ENSO despite being warmer overall than El Nino per recent research I did going back to 1800s. I may share this later. A bit counterintuitive imo. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 CMC is a real kick in the groin. Perfect track, ample moisture, not enough cold push. Mid 30’s and rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Yep, not quite cold enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 What stinks even more about this setup and why we’ve had some models showing potential is that the cold air IS there we just have no mechanism to get it down in time east of the mountains. On modeling it’s showing temps as low as the -20’s in parts of the northeast the day the storm system will be impacting us. Just imagine if we had a stronger low or a HP to tap some into of that… Just makes this setup that much more frustrating but also why so many have said from the start timing is everything here. We look like we’re getting the storm track we want Just need to find some mechanism to time it with the cold, something we’ve seen in some runs. Ensembles are not on our side either, showing the chance of that happening is still an outlier, but it cannot be dismissed yet. I’ll take a weak slider vs an amped system in this pattern anyday though bc it means we’re still in the game and not dealing with another cutter which we’d certainly get if this storm consolidated further west like most modeling was hinting at a few days ago. Think it was yesterday the Canadian too some areas from ice to 70’s in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Euro isn't even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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