Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The EPS is still way colder than the GFS and not far off. Your post is misleading. 

  Indeed, the 12Z EPS is still significantly colder than the blowtorch 12Z GEFS even with it being warmer than the 0Z EPS overall through ~hour 312. I also agree that the 12Z EPS is significantly closer to the 0Z EPS than to the 12Z GEFS. However, I think @NorthHillsWxis right in implying that the EPS has more often been too cold than too warm. So, future EPS runs not going back to the colder 0Z EPS wouldn't surprise me though I hope that's not the case. On a number of occasions this month, the EPS has backed off of a sustained pattern change to colder.

[Grayman]

All weenies please report to your closest cliff. Let’s dive and get this over with.  

[Upstate Tiger]

8 minutes ago, Grayman said:

All weenies please report to your closest cliff. Let’s dive and get this over with.  

NEVER!!!

[LithiaWx]

Hopefully we are setting up for a wild late January into mid Feb. 

[Grayman]

52 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

NEVER!!!

Upstate , I’m a Gamecock fan so Im use to quitting. Lol. Fab February. Storms will make on cold air and track 500 miles south 

[Upstate Tiger]

1 hour ago, Grayman said:

Upstate , I’m a Gamecock fan so Im use to quitting. Lol. Fab February. Storms will make on cold air and track 500 miles south 

Don’t know about that, you guys got the best of us. All joking aside, things can change quickly in winter and we’re only mid January.  Hopefully February is our month in the SE.  

[Coach McGuirk]

February can't be any worse than January, right?

[jtgus]

Snowing in Gibsonville, NC!

[LithiaWx]

3 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

February can't be any worse than January, right?

Meh,  historic cold spell over Xmas, we all know the balance that tries to restore itself.  We were due for boring and possibly warm following that.  Timing and flips are legit and we could be headed toward a flip/reshuffle in late January based on pattern flips and timing. 

[Jmoon]

8 hours ago, Grayman said:

All weenies please report to your closest cliff. Let’s dive and get this over with.  

Grayman, you better be up. You got at least some flurries or light snow headed your way believe it or not in the next few hours. Hope your up to see it.

[GaWx]

16 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Moneys on PAC winning out and a continuation of the same pattern. Active cutters and brief cooldowns with no arctic connection. EPS has oversold cold all year I see no reason to expect it to change 

 It would be hard to call your bet a loser as of the latest anyway. As mentioned, the 12Z EPS was a few degrees warmer than yesterday's 0Z EPS warming it from slightly BN to slightly AN, but still significantly colder than the torchy 12Z GEFS. But the new 0Z EPS is warmer than the 12Z EPS and is now mainly AN in the extended and as warm as the 0Z GEFS. It literally has no pattern change for the SE.

[Grayman]

8 hours ago, Jmoon said:

Grayman, you better be up. You got at least some flurries or light snow headed your way believe it or not in the next few hours. Hope your up to see it.

I didn’t man . I crashed . Ugh 

[NorthHillsWx]

Well, looks like the mighty Euro and EPS caved to the model that shall not be named 

[Grayman]

29 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Well, looks like the mighty Euro and EPS caved to the model that shall not be named 

Cliff diving party at location to be named later. Who’s in? It’s over weenies 

[Jmoon]

5 hours ago, Grayman said:

I didn’t man . I crashed . Ugh 

I know man. I don't blame you. Just thought you might of been up to see it if it reached the ground. I just seen the radar down your way and thought I would give you a holler. Hopefully better luck for us all down the road this winter. 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, Jmoon said:

I know man. I don't blame you. Just thought you might of been up to see it if it reached the ground. I just seen the radar down your way and thought I would give you a holler. Hopefully better luck for us all down the road this winter. 

I stayed up to midnight last night and watched it snow in Raleigh. It snowed again this morning. It reminded me how much I miss a real snow 

[LakeNormanStormin]

Lake Norman is yearning for a coating.

May the snow Gods show us mercy.

[wncsnow]

With the big trough digging in the midwest, it's going to get super wet and its not exactly dry currently. I can see some flooding issues coming soon. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

With the big trough digging in the midwest, it's going to get super wet and it's not exactly dry currently. I can see some flooding issues coming soon. 

 I'd like some good rains if we can get them as we're in a typical La Niña generated drought. I'd take 2.3" during just this 10 day period in a heartbeat. But I don't have that much confidence in the Euro or any model out much past 5 days, especially as regards storm tracks/qpf.

[franklin NCwx]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I'd like some good rains if we can get them as we're in a typical La Niña generated drought. I'd take 2.3" during just this 10 day period in a heartbeat. But I don't have that much confidence in the Euro or any model out much past 5 days, especially as regards storm tracks/qpf.

I need to move to move to one of these drought prone areas

[BooneWX]

10 hours ago, wncsnow said:

With the big trough digging in the midwest, it's going to get super wet and its not exactly dry currently. I can see some flooding issues coming soon. 

I’ve had over 16 inches of rain since the beginning of November. I’d trade snow for an immediate torch and dry weather if given the opportunity. 

[eyewall]

If you go by the operational models it is a dumpster fire for those outside the mountains. We are basically looking to February already. Not good.

[NorthHillsWx]

44 minutes ago, eyewall said:

If you go by the operational models it is a dumpster fire for those outside the mountains. We are basically looking to February already. Not good.

EPS is now honking a SE death ridge for the end of January. Other than today, it has 850 temp anomalies above average for the SE every. Single. Day. Through the end of the run. If there’s a cancel winter button it may have just been pressed. Euro and EPS folded like a lawn chair for the 22-27th period pattern change and now look abysmal beyond that. Hate to say it but this feels like we’re going to get blanked in the pure winter months.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

I’ve had over 16 inches of rain since the beginning of November. I’d trade snow for an immediate torch and dry weather if given the opportunity. 

 What a contrast to KSAV, which has had only 5.85" since way back on September 12th vs a normal of 12.54"! This comes out to only 47% of normal over the last 4 months. But this is fairly typical of La Niña, which favors the driest in the SE closer to the SE coast thanks to the prevailing southeast ridge mainly November through March.

 Here's the latest SE Drought Monitor map, which comes from here:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230110/20230110_southeast_none.png
 
 

[GaWx]

 I wouldn't call it a "major" SSW (at least as of yet since that requires an actual reversal of wind direction from W to E at 60N+), but a very strong warming is forecasted by the 6Z GEFS (and earlier runs) at 10 mb. These maps show a whopping 40C (72F) warming in some Arctic areas at 10 mb over just a 5 day period 1/22 to 1/27 along with a significant weakening and some southward displacement of the currently very strong SPV. If that ridge in the 2nd pic below over Alaska were to instead be N of Alaska along with the SPV being further south and even weaker, then I think this could possibly be called a "major SSW" since winds would reverse from W to E in some of the areas near and north of 60N. This would be possible considering model trends over the last few days.

 

 Any possible significant cooling effects on the SE US wouldn't be til mid February say, second week or later. Though La Niña climo makes it difficult for Feb as a whole to be a cold month in the SE, a good number have been near normal. Feb could start warm but end quite cold (meaning a near normal Feb overall) if this were to play out just right based on this strat. timing. By then, the MJO would possibly also be moving out of the typically warm MC region. Any calls for winter to be over soon in the SE even if we end up mild late Jan into early Feb would be quite bold considering this.

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I wouldn't call it a "major" SSW (at least as of yet since that requires an actual reversal of wind direction from W to E at 60N+), but a very strong warming is forecasted by the 6Z GEFS (and earlier runs) at 10 mb. These maps show a whopping 40C (72F) warming in some Arctic areas at 10 mb over just a 5 day period 1/22 to 1/27 along with a significant weakening and some southward displacement of the currently very strong SPV. If that ridge in the 2nd pic below over Alaska were to instead be N of Alaska along with the SPV being further south and even weaker, then I think this could possibly be called a "major SSW" since winds would reverse from W to E in some of the areas near and north of 60N. This would be possible considering model trends over the last few days.

 

 Any possible significant cooling effects on the SE US wouldn't be til mid February. Though La Niña climo makes it difficult for Feb as a whole to be a cold month in the SE, a good number have been near normal. Feb could start warm but end quite cold (meaning a near normal Feb overall) if this were to play out just right based on this strat. timing. By then, the MJO would possibly also be moving out of the typically warm MC region. Any calls for winter to be over soon in the SE even if we end up mild late Jan into early Feb would be quite bold considering this.

Nice work GA

[BooneWX]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 What a contrast to KSAV, which has had only 5.85" since way back on September 12th vs a normal of 12.54"! This comes out to only 47% of normal over the last 4 months. But this is fairly typical of La Niña, which favors the driest in the SE closer to the SE coast thanks to the prevailing southeast ridge mainly November through March.

 Here's the latest SE Drought Monitor map, which comes from here:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20230110/20230110_southeast_none.png
 
 

Interesting! We’ve been so wet in western NC that I was frankly oblivious to any drought conditions this close by. Other than 2016, I can’t really recall when we’ve truly been substantially below average in this part of the SE. We had a 2 week dry period this august and no lie, I think that was the first time I’ve mowed my lawn and had bone dry wheels in 3+ years. 

[JoshM]

almost forgot...

[PackGrad05]

EPS still has "activity" around 27-30 timeframe...something to watch at least.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

EPS still has "activity" around 27-30 timeframe...something to watch at least.

Just wait for another run or two. It will show the torch. NC Winters and the south in general have gotten worse lately. Models are not even showing phantom stuff for us, or heck, the NE coastline. Climate change.