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Winter ‘22-23 Panic Room


NorEastermass128
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9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yes but you need to  imagine Tip, sitting in a Chrysler Lebaron, February sun beaming through the windshield, warming those fine “Corinthian leather” seats.

Instead of poetry, I just imagine DIT in a fit of rage declaring winter over the minute his black asphalt driveway starts melting snow in the sunshine despite it being only 20F outside.

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16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cape Ann seems like one of the areas that is probably most under their average snowfall in SNE when you look at 21-22 season and this year to date . It’s been very hard to get precipitation to fall with the temp below 32 there for well over a year . (I think )

I think I had one normal winter up there since 17-18. Last year was a blur, but I think we came in around average. 

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I am officially out on this winter. We are entering mid Jan with nothing so far, nothing big on the horizon and are tracking the next pattern change now that the 14th threat went to shit. Even if the SSW shit breaks right, that would get us to what average climo? There is a lag time so if we get an SSW late Jan it won’t be felt until late Feb. If we get an epic March and one decent storm end of Feb the upside is what, 40 inches the entire season? That’s a garbage winter! 

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It's hard to give up on an entire winter in early Jan.  I still feel confident that the pattern breaks to something more favorable for winter enthusiasts in late January into February.  As many have said, Canada is warm too right now so every storm is a threading the needle situation until that reverses.  The ensembles and long term climate models are still pointing to a change in that scenario.  Once Canada cools off it's easier to get SWFE events and other storms that develop when the upper air pattern is more favorable.

That being said, we may still end up with a below normal winter for snow because of all the missed time, so if that's your definition of a ratter, then it's a high probability it will occur.  But overall patience is the key the next couple of weeks...

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UPDATE 1/15/2023: Jan 5+ AN; Feb 0-2 AN (warm start, much colder after pattern flip, could come in colder overall if flip comes early.); March 3-5 BN (could be colder). Best chance of serious snow is, second week of Feb through end of March. Remember, this is not science, just gut feeling based on life experience. I thought we'd get killed with a mild and dry Feb. Instead we have a super mild and gray January. 

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2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

I shouldn't have done maintenance work on White Out this year (Yes, I named my snow thrower)

I held off on it.

My dad who's going on 82 experienced many of these duds in the past refused to get his snow thrower ready back in November cause he had a feeling. Amazing.

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4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Not to mention a 6-12" snowstorm 2 days from now. By 1/21 i had about 20" here. 11-12 was epic compared to this shi*t

 

 

Screenshot 2023-01-19 032716.png

I honestly think CPK has a chance to end up with 0 this year. Pretty incredible. 97/98 had one storm in March that year.

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23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Worst winter of my lifetime currently…didn’t think it could get worst then 19/20 

That's subjective. For many it would be the best winter of their lifetime because of a lack of snow/cold. 

I've been over this winter for weeks now, fully into the acceptance stage.

Spring weather can't get here fast enough though I always worry that March/April will be when the wintry pattern shows up. 

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's subjective. For many it would be the best winter of their lifetime because of a lack of snow/cold. 

I've been over this winter for weeks now, fully into the acceptance stage.

Spring weather can't get here fast enough though I always worry that March/April will be when the wintry pattern shows up. 

Meh, I think when people bring up march snow they’re secretly rooting for it. Hopefully we torch in march and April 

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