Winter ‘22-23 Panic Room

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Stupidest statement EVER! 

 

[WinterWolf]

33 minutes ago, dryslot said:

My buddy was out yesterday with the Arnold Trail club closing off some trails due to logging, He says the trails were not to bad.

Jeff, where is that? 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Jeff, where is that? 

Eustis, Heading towards Grand Falls, Couple other friends of mine have been riding Coos Canyon too over by Rangeley.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Eustis, Heading towards Grand Falls, Couple other friends of mine have been riding Coos Canyon too over by Rangeley.

That looks decent. Nice. Thanks. 

[J Paul Gordon]

Changing my winter "forecast" from this:  Dec 3-5 AN; Jan 1-3 AN; Feb 5+AN; March 0-2 BN to this: Dec 3-5 AN; Jan 2-4 AN; Feb 1-3 AN; March 0-2 BN. Figure there may be a pattern change to lower the extreme warmth I had up earlier for Feb. None of it is scientific, but I predicted November would be 4-6 AN and it verified, likewise December should verify toward the lower end (ORH at 1.9+ after the cold spell and it is uphill from here). Snowfall? Looks like it will come in on the low side, too, but thats always a crapshoot.

UPDATE: Jan 5+ AN; Feb 0-2 AN (warm start, much colder after pattern flip, could come in colder overall if flip comes early.); March 3-5 BN (could be colder). Best chance of serious snow is, second week of Feb through end of March. Remember, this is not science, just gut feeling based on life experience. I thought we'd get killed with a mild and dry Feb. Instead we have a super mild and gray January. 

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Yeah but you agree with me on meteorological winter.  Wolfie is still stuck in the stone age thinking winter starts on Christmas. I'm not saying it won't snow in morch, it certainly does. The point is we all just want seasons in seasons for it to be a primo winter. 

You just wish climo followed the solar cycle more without a lag.  The lag is what annoys some of you more than anything.  It's dark in late November and early December and folks want deep winter... but our climo shows that biggest snows occur when the sun angle is rising and days are getting longer.  Not when they are getting shorter.

It's the same in summer... some want HHH during max solar in June and it pisses them off that it doesn't line up and it can easily be more HHH in late August than at the solar maximum.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nuances

[ice1972]

"nuances" lol.....word du jour.....can we delete that word from the vocab please......seems everyone uses it now as code for "you're dumb".......

my position on the matter is clear......i will gladly trade you morch snow today for december snow tomorrow........if climo is that more comes in morch then whatever - i still prefer an overperforming winter over an average one......you all settle for average.....thats on you

[CoastalWx]

Beer 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I feel like December can be pretty meaningless in terms of how good snow winter we have.  However, I think December is vital in terms of how good/safe of a pond ice winter we have in SNE. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

You just wish climo followed the solar cycle more without a lag.  The lag is what annoys some of you more than anything.  It's dark in late November and early December and folks want deep winter... but our climo shows that biggest snows occur when the sun angle is rising and days are getting longer.  Not when they are getting shorter.

It's the same in summer... some want HHH during max solar in June and it pisses them off that it doesn't line up and it can easily be more HHH in late August than at the solar maximum.

Thank you. This is the point, and was my point to Whino and Ice.  It’s quite simple.  Ya we’d all love snow in late November and December, but as I, and now you, and others have explained, it usually doesn’t happen that way.  That’s just the way it is in New England. 

[WinterWolf]

35 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I feel like December can be pretty meaningless in terms of how good snow winter we have.  However, I think December is vital in terms of how good/safe of a pond ice winter we have in SNE. 

Agreed 100%.  December snow doesn’t  mean much. It’s fun, and it’s nice. but it’s not gonna make or break a winter in SNE.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Despite March having the worse sun angle yada yada you can have a decent December and have it all torch away. 
 

15” here this month and it is almost all gone. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Agreed 100%.  December snow doesn’t  mean much. It’s fun, and it’s nice. but it’s not gonna make or break a winter in SNE.  

Well, if you want a good winter in SNE, your odds are much better if December doesn't suck..that can't be denied. But there are exceptions and I have stated why this may be one.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Agreed 100%.  December snow doesn’t  mean much. It’s fun, and it’s nice. but it’s not gonna make or break a winter in SNE.  

That makes no sense. Great winters always include snowy Dec 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That makes no sense. Great winters always include snowy Dec 

Sorry, No they don’t Kev.  
 

14-15 was a great winter for you,  and very good for me. And Dec 14 wasn’t a very snowy time. There are alot of December’s that suck and some winters go on to be very good to great. 
 

Sure they can help, and I’d love to have a snowy December, but there are plenty of very good winters that don’t have snowy Decembers. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Sorry, No they don’t Kev.  
 

14-15 was a great winter for you,  and very good for me. And Dec 14 wasn’t a very snowy time. There are alot of December’s that suck and some winters go on to be very good to great.  

There’s a difference. That was a good 6 weeks not full winter. I’d much rather it all spread out. We got 1.5 months of heavy snows and lost most of rest 

[SJonesWX]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That makes no sense. Great winters always include snowy Dec 

while i am inclined to generally agree, as with all things there are outliers. I can disprove "always"-twice in the last 12 years

Dec 2014 i had 6". ended up with over 100"

Dec 2010 i had 9", ended up with over 90"

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a difference. That was a good 6 weeks not full winter. I’d much rather it all spread out. We got 1.5 months of heavy snows and lost most of rest 

But it was still a great winter..record breaking for some. Sure we’d all love it spread out..I would too. But most times that just doesn’t happen here. And those are real facts.  
 

What we want, and what really happens most times, is not the same.  Ya can’t combine the two and create a narrative that is not factual or true. And that’s the whole point here. 

[Damage In Tolland]

We’re not comparing apples to oranges here . You are taking low road, I’m taking high 

[ice1972]

Wolfie is fine with average......some are not.....apples to oranges.......thats really all it is.....

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

We’re not comparing apples to oranges here . You are taking low road, I’m taking high 

Lol..low road? All I said is that you don’t always need a good December to get a very good winter.  
 

It’s all good.
Ya all can keep thinking December should be a very snowy month…but the facts show that it usually is not. 
 

And no Ice, I’m not fine with average, I’d love way above average if I had a choice. But do any of us have a choice lol? And I’m only being realistic here.  But if you all want to fantasize and combine fantasy in with what really happens…and create your own ideas, then go ahead and dream. 

[jbenedet]

Sun is really impotent from say 12/1 to 1/15. It’s easy to understate how important this is to pack building, and getting that prolonged wintery feel. I think if there’s any frustration it should be that—we will lose out on at least most of this window. 

Also, while our climo average temps are warmest in December vs January and February, I believe the chances of a pack annihilating warm up go up significantly after 1/20. The threshold to hit 65+ goes up despite lower averages, most of this  having to do with the relatively stronger sun in the southeast and the ability for warm sectors to fan this up the Apps.

[Torch Tiger]

 most of December and 1/2 of January gone, basically snowless here.  No way you can salvage a "great" winter in retrospect

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 most of December and 1/2 of January gone, basically snowless here.  No way you can salvage a "great" winter in retrospect

Yup it’sJanuary 15th already on 12/29. Go jump off the Tobin you clown! 

[WarrenCtyWx]

10 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 most of December and 1/2 of January gone, basically snowless here.  No way you can salvage a "great" winter in retrospect

You just described 14-15.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

You just described 14-15.

He doesn’t even get it.  14/15 lost  pretty much all of January too. 

[ice1972]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He doesn’t even get it.  14/15 lost  pretty much all of January too. 

The problem is it would have been so much better…..see now?  As good as it was eventually - losing December and January ruined it…..

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

You just described 14-15.

Yeah, wasn't a great winter.  great six weeks, yes.  You can't lose half of met winter basically snowless and call it great.

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup it’sJanuary 15th already on 12/29. Go jump off the Tobin you clown! 

that is highly insensitive