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2023 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago Storm
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  • 2 weeks later...

There are some grunge thunderstorms starting in Iowa, with maybe a couple of severe warnings in the next hour, maybe some 1" hail. It probably could get a lot worse with 50 kt of shear, later. SPC mesoanalysis says significant tornado parameter will be >1 this evening.

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Tomorrow looks pretty impressive to me over Indiana and vicinity. Seems to have the ceiling of a significant regional event given the magnitude of the incoming trough, seasonably strong mid level flow, and potentially favorable storm mode/shear profiles.

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It seems like the HRRR was a little too excited today. Still, there was 3000-4000 J/kg to work with. I wonder what will get going tomorrow. The new runs will be coming out soon. I wonder if I'll finally have some storms to track within a few miles of me. Will the HRRR runs be too excited about severe storms tomorrow?

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Definitely is excited that’s for sure

2 minutes ago, Chinook said:

It seems like the HRRR was a little too excited today. Still, there was 3000-4000 J/kg to work with. I wonder what will get going tomorrow. The new runs will be coming out soon. I wonder if I'll finally have some storms to track within a few miles of me. Will the HRRR runs be too excited about severe storms tomorrow?

 

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1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

You think S Mi will be in the impact zone? MCS style or more linear storm mode?

I think a mcs looks pretty likely tbh. I expect changes to the outlook. Tomorrow Indiana looks pretty stout. The low is sharper than previous projections so the jet is more cyclonically curved helping to aid more shear.

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32 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I think a mcs looks pretty likely tbh. I expect changes to the outlook. Tomorrow Indiana looks pretty stout. The low is sharper than previous projections so the jet is more cyclonically curved helping to aid more shear.

Thank you for your input. Hopefully game on

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