Hoosier Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Lapse rates suck come Monday, but despite the poor instability, I expect at least an isolated severe threat to materialize in the Ohio Valley and potentially up to the southern Lakes. Very strong wind fields with good signals for a line or broken line of storms moving rapidly across the region. Damaging winds would certainly be the main threat, but I wouldn't rule out an isolated tornado. Directional shear isn't the greatest but there's some modest turning in the profiles, while speed shear is very good. This may get going relatively early in the day on Monday as well... maybe even potentially carrying over from the Plains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Noticed the 12z Euro had more MUCAPE than the GFS. Not a huge value by any means, but would probably suggest a bit more of a threat than the GFS. The timing of this would be atypical, but not unheard of. Severe threat could begin by daybreak in IL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 12Z Euro for Saturday at 00Z had a low NE of Piqua, OH then the 00Z run at the same time had it off the North Carolina coast. Just your casual everyday 4 state shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: 12Z Euro for Saturday at 00Z had a low NE of Piqua, OH then the 00Z run at the same time had it off the North Carolina coast. Just your casual everyday 4 state shift. So much for our 958mb storm eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 hours ago, cyclone77 said: So much for our 958mb storm eh? It's only reliable at that range for MSP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 A couple things. The better instability (though still modest) is actually progged to trail behind the wind shift/main area of convection. Would obviously be better if that were more aligned. That being said, the more I look at it, the more I'm thinking that this may just be one semi-continuous severe threat from the Plains into our sub without really having any kind of long break. Already mentioned the instability concerns but on the plus side, we'll have a deepening surface low through Sunday night and into Monday morning. That should force the low levels to remain mixed well-enough and minimize any stable layer at the surface as the main line/broken line approaches a given area. Also not dealing with any snowcover meltoff in the warm sector. Don't have sub-980 mb lows rolling into Iowa every day. Anomalous setups don't guarantee anomalous results, but it sure raises the possibility. So despite the timing being poor and issues with instability, I think there's a decent chance that some severe threat is maintained through overnight Sunday into Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 22 hours ago, Hoosier said: A couple things. The better instability (though still modest) is actually progged to trail behind the wind shift/main area of convection. Would obviously be better if that were more aligned. That being said, the more I look at it, the more I'm thinking that this may just be one semi-continuous severe threat from the Plains into our sub without really having any kind of long break. Already mentioned the instability concerns but on the plus side, we'll have a deepening surface low through Sunday night and into Monday morning. That should force the low levels to remain mixed well-enough and minimize any stable layer at the surface as the main line/broken line approaches a given area. Also not dealing with any snowcover meltoff in the warm sector. Don't have sub-980 mb lows rolling into Iowa every day. Anomalous setups don't guarantee anomalous results, but it sure raises the possibility. So despite the timing being poor and issues with instability, I think there's a decent chance that some severe threat is maintained through overnight Sunday into Monday. As I just said in the other thread...this is a powerhouse system, shame it's too darn progressive for a quality early-season event in our sub like 2/28/17 or 3/15/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Definitely some embedded supercell structures with that band of convection Sunday night/Monday morning from MO into IL. If we had some surface instability I'd be expecting some tor reports with that to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Nice pencil thin line on the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Getting a bit more interested in the area around where the triple point will be sliding through. This would be just behind the activity earlier on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 The HRRR gust output has severe/near severe criteria winds with the line all the way from Oklahoma to Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Though lapse rates weaken overall with time on Sunday-Monday, do notice some pockets of decent lapse rates on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Tornado warning in central IL, already reported. Quote 1445 CHAMPAIGN CHAMPAIGN IL 40118826 TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND NEAR STALEY AND KEARNS RD. (ILX) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2023 Author Share Posted February 27, 2023 0-3km cape magic.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Gang shit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Damn and it’s early too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Tornado warning just popped up for dupage? . Naperville area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincy.wx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 looks like there was a brief lil spinner about 15 miles northwest of KLOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 quality 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 First tornado watch of the day issued 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: quality Now that is a Feb morning worth its salt. A photogenic one at 8am!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 There have been preliminary tornado reports near Champaign, Plainfield, and Naperville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 To say I’m surprised to see a Tornado Warning a county to my west is an understatement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: To say I’m surprised to see a Tornado Warning a county to my west is an understatement. Yeah I’m quite impressed watching things play out to say the least. Been very entertaining last few weeks to say the least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 No damage reported anywhere in Northern IN at the moment. Some reports of nickel and quarter size hail. Heavy rain...but still have yet to hear my first rumble of thunder of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Tornado in Shorewood/Plainfield hit about 2 miles west of me. Nothing to note at my residence besides small branches and a shingle or two. Had a chance to drive through the affected neighborhood and saw a lot of blown down fences. Some siding/gutters ripped and some bigger trees uprooted (most likely due to the already soaked ground). No warning and not what I was expecting today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Radar indicated rotation on two storm north/northeast of Indianapolis prompted some warnings. No actual sightings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincy.wx Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 spotty sun out ahead of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Looks like we may have a significant tornado on the ground west of Cincinnati Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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