thomp2mp Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Severe T-Storm warnings issued for parts of Seneca, Wyandot, and Hancock counties in NW Ohio. Sucks that there is such a radar hole in this area. Even the TDWRs are distant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 The trajectory of this event is looking questionable to say the least. Mentioned the ample insolation earlier. I think it may have actually been a little too much of a good thing, because it has contributed to dews mixing out into the 30s/low 40s in much of the area. From an instability perspective, the warmer temps at the sfc may not be enough to fully compensate for that drop in dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 SPC meso discussion alluded to this Mesoscale Discussion 0079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Areas affected...Northwestern/north-central Ohio Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26... Valid 192039Z - 192215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe wind gusts are most likely in parts of northern Ohio over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Strong mixing has lowered dewpoints across southern Ohio to the low/mid 30s F. Farther north, a longer duration of cloud cover has sheltered the area from mixing. Dewpoints in northern Ohio have remained in the low/mid 40s F. Observational trends indicate that the strongest portion of the frontal convection has been where dewpoints are in the mid 40s F. Though forcing from the shortwave trough will remain moderate/strong, it appears that the greatest threat for strong/severe wind gusts will be confined to where these greater dewpoints are in northern Ohio. ..Wendt.. 01/19/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 20, 2023 Share Posted January 20, 2023 I saw lightning at Toledo at 5:30PM, and it was not far away, as the thunder was quite soon. I really and truly haven't had a +RA in January since before I moved to the Western US. It's just so strange. Quote KTOL 192238Z 23017G29KT 3SM TSRA BR FEW009 BKN028 OVC034 07/05 A2950 RMK AO2 PK WND 23029/2235 LTG DSNT E AND SE AND W RAB04 TSB31 P0024 T00720050 KTOL 192231Z 23014G22KT 1 3/4SM R25/6000VP6000FT +TSRA BR SCT012 BKN028 OVC034 08/07 A2950 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E AND SE AND W RAB04 TSB31 PRESRR P0020 T00830067 KTOL 192226Z 22009KT 1 1/2SM VCTS +RA BR FEW014 BKN034 OVC045 09/07 A2949 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E AND SE RAB04 PRESRR P0011 T00890067 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Apparently no one's noticed because all anyone cares about is snow, but there's a marginal risk almost up to I-80 in IL today and another one tomorrow for most of IN/OH/far eastern IL and far S Lower MI. 5% wind contour both days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Apparently no one's noticed because all anyone cares about is snow, but there's a marginal risk almost up to I-80 in IL today and another one tomorrow for most of IN/OH/far eastern IL and far S Lower MI. 5% wind contour both days.Let’s go!!! I wanna see another 8/18/05. That was wild. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 42 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Apparently no one's noticed because all anyone cares about is snow, but there's a marginal risk almost up to I-80 in IL today and another one tomorrow for most of IN/OH/far eastern IL and far S Lower MI. 5% wind contour both days. Driving into work I was daydreaming about thunderstorms. I’m ready for the season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said: Let’s go!!! I wanna see another 8/18/05. That was wild. It was indeed (speaking as someone who lived about 1/3 mile from the path of the Stoughton F3 at the time). Not looking for it anytime soon but can't sleep on early season setups in this region anymore either (2/28/17, 3/5/22 and 3/15/16 come to mind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 5 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Apparently no one's noticed because all anyone cares about is snow, but there's a marginal risk almost up to I-80 in IL today and another one tomorrow for most of IN/OH/far eastern IL and far S Lower MI. 5% wind contour both days. Can't rule out some severe reports, but on paper it's not as good as the setups that we saw earlier this winter in Iowa and Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Today's marginal risk has been removed. Did have a small cluster of wind reports around the southern IL/western KY area yesterday evening into early this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 first high wind warning that actually was warranted here. The steel and glass door to my office just blew open....scared the crap out of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincy.wx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 next weds/thurs could be interesting near and south of the ohio river... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 It's impressive to see a day 6 risk area outlooked into southern Indiana, given the usual reluctance of SPC to place a day 6 (or even day 4-5) risk area in this sub at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 One thing this setup has going for it (among others) is the lead system that passes by midweek serves to kickstart the moisture return process from the GOM. The cold front with that lead system may only settle down into the central parts of IL/IN/OH. We are still limited by time of year, so don't expect outrageous dews too far north, but this particular evolution with the preceding system means they will be higher than they otherwise would've been. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Ohio Valley may be rather interesting on Thursday just looking at the setup aloft, and especially if the surface winds can stay closer to southerly. This type of setup has yielded some bigger events in the region in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: Ohio Valley may be rather interesting on Thursday just looking at the setup aloft, and especially if the surface winds can stay closer to southerly. This type of setup has yielded some bigger events in the region in the past. I'm retired as of this week, and as such not tied down to our county. Pretty marginal threat to be heading down to the Cincy area though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 New RRFS looks pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 minute ago, andyhb said: New RRFS looks pretty interesting. That's 7 am central/8 am eastern time, which is usually a temporal dead zone for severe weather in this region of the country. Usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That's 7 am central/8 am eastern time, which is usually a temporal dead zone for severe weather in this region of the country. Usually. Leap Day 2012 is a notable exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cincy.wx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 hrrr continues to bring more instability up to the ohio river. i think the tornado risk along the ohio river TP is being understated. cincy could very well get in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 5:05 PM, andyhb said: New RRFS looks pretty interesting. What is new about this? The discrete stuff on the Idiana/Illinois border was a swing and miss. Did it not account for the cold ground temps maybe putting the squash on surface based stuff? It did have the general look right. Will be curious to see more of this in another month or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Meanwhile Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday morning through afternoon from parts of Oklahoma into western Arkansas, across Missouri and western Illinois. Damaging winds appear most likely. ...Synopsis... Within a large-scale mid/upper-level trough, a pronounced shortwave trough will lift rapidly northeast from the southern Plains towards the Great Lakes. Intense low/mid-level wind fields will accompany this shortwave trough as it accelerates northeast and generally weakens while moving into a more confluent mid-level flow regime. Farther west, a strong upper-level speed max will drop south along the west coast and contribute to the development of a closed upper low near the CA coast. Surface low pressure will develop along a front over eastern KS and move towards northern IL late Wednesday. ...OK northeast into MO/IL/IN and northwest AR... Strong/severe thunderstorms may be ongoing across central/eastern OK at 12z Wednesday in the vicinity of the dryline/cold front. The presence of surface dew points in the upper 50s/lower 60s will contribute to modest instability ranging from 250 to 750 J/kg across the warm sector during the day, and storms are expected to move rapidly northeast during the morning and afternoon. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields (50-65 kts) will translate northeast with the shortwave trough and provide a favorable environment for strong/severe wind gusts with the stronger convective elements. Although large-scale ascent will tend to weaken with time as the trough moves into increasingly confluent mid-level flow over the Great Lakes, at least some severe risk may persist as far east as central IL and western IN. Low severe wind probabilities have been extended east accordingly. Although the predominant linear mode will result in damaging winds as the main severe risk, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given favorable low-level shear and at least some potential for transient supercell structures and QLCS circulations. ..Bunting.. 02/21/2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 If we had the system early next week later in the season... ho-ly hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 A couple kinks in the line approaching St Louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Tor warnings now and I expect to see more given the conditions in Illinoi southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Indystorm said: Tor warnings now and I expect to see more given the conditions in Illinoi southward. Definitely primed to get something dirty riding the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Low CAPE, and modestly high shear and a WF always gets my interest especially in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Definitely keeping an eye on this one. My mom is currently driving through central IL heading for SE Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Hoosier, I hope your mom has a wx radio or phone access to current conditions and I know you will keep her informed to ensure safe travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Gee, the tor watch goes as far ne as Champaign and Danville Illinois. Certainly did not expect that today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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