hawkeye_wx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Tornado warning just sw of Cedar Rapids.... confirmed tornado. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Sirens are going off in Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Currently 47/45 at Cedar Rapids. You wouldn't think it would still be tornadic by the time it approaches there, but who knows. Tornadoes can and do occur every so often with temps/dews in the 40s, and it's probably in these kind of setups that feature plentiful cold air aloft/steep lapse rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Currently 47/45 at Cedar Rapids. You wouldn't think it would still be tornadic by the time it approaches there, but who knows. Tornadoes can and do occur every so often with temps/dews in the 40s, and it's probably in these kind of setups that feature plentiful cold air aloft/steep lapse rates. Yeah, it's nearing 60º south of I-80, but only mid 40s at my house. The cell is weakening as it moves into CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 19 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Currently 47/45 at Cedar Rapids. You wouldn't think it would still be tornadic by the time it approaches there, but who knows. Tornadoes can and do occur every so often with temps/dews in the 40s, and it's probably in these kind of setups that feature plentiful cold air aloft/steep lapse rates. There's a very narrow axis of 50-54 DP's that have been feeding in, and that was likely just enough to make the magic happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 Have been wondering if there was some sort of MVC in E IA, as that whole complex has been spiraling on radar for a while. Upon further review, it looks like that E IA complex is tied to the vort max in the trough moving through. So when combined with the narrow corridor of 50-54 DP's (And the other solid environmental factors), this is probably why we have seen production with there and not much happening anywhere else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Looking at forecast soundings from that area, you can see the difference that temps/dews around 50 makes. There's up to a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE in those areas, which drops toward zero in areas with temps/dews that are just a few degrees lower. These events ride such a fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2023 Author Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Looking at forecast soundings from that area, you can see the difference that temps/dews around 50 makes. There's up to a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE in those areas, which drops toward zero in areas with temps/dews that are just a few degrees lower. These events ride such a fine line. Check out the 0-3km CAPE. This was about as thread the needle as you can get severe weather wise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Knew the atmosphere was gonna find some way to make me regret not chasing today.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Knew the atmosphere was gonna find some way to make me regret not chasing today. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Which is what? Did I miss something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 38 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Which is what? Did I miss something? A wedge dropped in Iowa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: A wedge dropped in Iowa Damn. How about that. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 DVN confirmed 2 tornadoes. This is only the 2nd January on record with a tornado in Iowa... the other being 1967. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: DVN confirmed 2 tornadoes. This is only the 2nd January on record with a tornado in Iowa... the other being 1967. The way winters are going anymore I think we'll be seeing more January naders in coming years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 14 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The way winters are going anymore I think we'll be seeing more January naders in coming years. I'd have to agree with this. When you think about it, what are the usual limiting factors for severe wx with northward extent at this time of year? Moisture and instability. A warmer GOM (on average) would tend to lead to better poleward moisture transport... and even small changes can make a difference in a severe setup. I don't think it's likely to result in January severe wx becoming really common north of 40N, but I'm gonna bet that it won't be 56 years until the next January tornadoes in Iowa. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Slight risk for tomorrow in north central and west central Ohio. I can't recall ever seeing a slight risk reaching all the way to the lakeshore in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 I didn't end up chasing Iowa on Monday since there wasn't the model uptrend in moisture that always seems to happen with these cold season events. Of course, it still dropped a wedge. These cold core setups almost never look "good" but man do they manage to produce. Looks like Ohio is next up in the cold core gravy train. I won't be chasing you know that silly parameter space is going to do it. SPC is even giving it a D2 slight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Took a look at tomorrow's setup, and I definitely think there is some tornado potential. Once again we are looking at marginal moisture (dews may actually remain in the 40s this time in the threat area, unlike Iowa where dews managed to surpass 50) but ample low level CAPE along with good shear. The HRRR/RAP are again more bullish than other models with dewpoints. Observational trends tomorrow will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnOvechkin Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Took a look at tomorrow's setup, and I definitely think there is some tornado potential. Once again we are looking at marginal moisture (dews may actually remain in the 40s this time in the threat area, unlike Iowa where dews managed to surpass 50) but ample low level CAPE along with good shear. The HRRR/RAP are again more bullish than other models with dewpoints. Observational trends tomorrow will be key. In Ohio, evening time, there is severe potential for sure as the circulation pushes through. Idk about the Hoosier state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Definitely looks like a damaging wind type of day tomorrow, would be cool to see some spin-ups though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Looking at forecast soundings from that area, you can see the difference that temps/dews around 50 makes. There's up to a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE in those areas, which drops toward zero in areas with temps/dews that are just a few degrees lower. These events ride such a fine line.You get events they perform with almost no support this time of year but come spring and summer and you can have the best setup ever and nothing happens. Ugh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Thought I'd post this because, well, it's kind of cool. We could be talking about severe wx/tornadoes occurring near the 540 line. Not something you see everyday, and it is a reflection of how cold the low-mid levels are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Thought I'd post this because, well, it's kind of cool. We could be talking about severe wx/tornadoes occurring near the 540 line. Not something you see everyday, and it is a reflection of how cold the low-mid levels are. Could see some wild helicity numbers in western Ohio tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Although been focusing on tornado potential, wind threat looks higher than what occurred in Iowa a couple days ago. Should have substantially more convective coverage this time and mode looks like it will get messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Day 1 is out. imo, risk area should be expanded a little bit west in eastern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Enhanced risk for wind is pretty impressive to see in an area where dews will be in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 A lot of insolation in much of the threat area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Mesoscale Discussion 0078 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the middle Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 191813Z - 192015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Potential for scattered strong/severe wind gusts will increase this afternoon in parts of the middle Ohio Valley. Though more marginal threats, a tornado or two and large hail may also occur. A watch is likely in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A compact shortwave trough is pivoting around the main upper-level low within the Upper-Midwest. Water vapor imagery shows this feature moving through central Illinois at present. At the surface, a broad area low pressure is present within the lower Great Lakes. A secondary cold front is now entering western Indiana with visible/infrared satellite indicating some gradual deepening of cumulus along the boundary. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 50s F and lower 60s F seem possible ahead of this activity. Even with these warmer temperatures than guidance forecast this morning, dewpoints have also mixed out into the low/mid 40s F. The net effect should should mean limited buoyancy of 250 to at most 500 J/kg MLCAPE. The primary concern with convection as it continues to deepen this afternoon will be strong to severe wind gusts. Storm motions coupled with 40-50 kts in the lowest 3 km (already sampled by KVWX VWP), will promote potential for wind gusts of 50-60 kts and isolated higher gusts possible. In response to the shortwave trough, some slight backing of surface winds has been noted in central Indiana. This trend should continue to the east as the wave progresses. As such, some potential for isolated tornado activity will exist. -25 C temperatures aloft could also promote marginally severe hail. ..Wendt/Grams.. 01/19/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 The Watch just went up for the eastern couple of tiers of counties in IN and the whole western half of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now