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2023 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago Storm
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1121 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

OHC043-077-240345-
/O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-230824T0345Z/
Huron OH-Erie OH-
1121 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN HURON AND ERIE COUNTIES...

At 1120 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located between Bellevue and Kimball, or 9 miles northwest of
Norwalk, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Bellevue around 1130 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Monroeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4132 8281 4132 8271 4123 8270 4123 8284
      4129 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 014DEG 12KT 4130 8277

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Sullivan
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9 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Looking at the SPC mesoanalysis, the combined moisture/instability levels are close to unprecedented for the Detroit area (and it's only 7am).

These storms just keep going. Really special set up right now. Blindsided most of us in the area. I wonder what will fire as the morning goes on

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7 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

some of the flooding has to be insane, you folks have been getting hammered all night

Some flooded underpasses in Columbus I drove through one flooded with about a foot and a half of water but I got a work truck so I was fine. DTX point at more heavy rains for the Detroit metro later. The NE to SW orientation is quite fascinating and will be a great analog in the future. I feel like one of these days a 10” rain event will happen in the Detroit metro

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8 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Was all of that firing off outflow boundaries? I’ve never seen that in my life where storms over Cleveland built basically a conga line that reached all the way back to Indiana thru outflow. They look like lake effect snow bands

 

5 hours ago, Spartman said:

Super MCS seems silmilar to a cutoff low.

Well that model played out surprisingly well 

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20 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Some flooded underpasses in Columbus I drove through one flooded with about a foot and a half of water but I got a work truck so I was fine. DTX point at more heavy rains for the Detroit metro later. The NE to SW orientation is quite fascinating and will be a great analog in the future. I feel like one of these days a 10” rain event will happen in the Detroit metro

I really like the set up going into this week.  This is the perfect set up for prolific rain totals.  Little bummed MBY somehow only got 1" while most surrounding areas got 2-6" as DTX warning mentions.  A 10" rain event would be incredible.  As it is 6" is a ton of rain!! It is going to be interesting to see how the rest of today goes as right now the radar is still firing some stuff up.  

 

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14 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

 

Well that model played out surprisingly well 

Last night was definitely modeled better than the previous night.   I think it has to do with the storms were already ongoing last night while the night before the most of the models were too quick to develop convection making an MCS in MI that just didn't occur.

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2 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Last night was definitely modeled better than the previous night.   I think it has to do with the storms were already ongoing last night while the night before the most of the models were too quick to develop convection making an MCS in MI that just didn't occur.

Just read the SPC outlook and they are hinting at a bowing MCS developing and diving SE before weakening as it moves into the heart of Appalachia. Some prolific derechos have formed after heavy rain events like this

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20 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Just read the SPC outlook and they are hinting at a bowing MCS developing and diving SE before weakening as it moves into the heart of Appalachia. Some prolific derechos have formed after heavy rain events like this

If you get a chance watch the satellite loop.  Interesting/fun to see the holes opening up so rapidly.

image.png.918e0f2cead3f1307d458c6fbb7b9e11.png

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6 minutes ago, Lightning said:

If you get a chance watch the satellite loop.  Interesting/fun to see the holes opening up so rapidly.

image.png.918e0f2cead3f1307d458c6fbb7b9e11.png

If that’s not a sign nocturnal processes are over I don’t know what is. If that continues it’s going to heat up rapidly. Wonder if severe weather today will be something special. Pure sun on top of all that rainfall right after will mallow humidity skyrocket more than what it already is

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1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

If that’s not a sign nocturnal processes are over I don’t know what is. If that continues it’s going to heat up rapidly. Wonder if severe weather today will be something special. Pure sun on top of all that rainfall right after will mallow humidity skyrocket more than what it already is

SPC upgrade the tornado to 5% for this area:

image.png.163e0d9afe4e933f490141e1e0729b9d.png

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32 minutes ago, Lightning said:

SPC upgrade the tornado to 5% for this area:

image.png.163e0d9afe4e933f490141e1e0729b9d.png

Ohh boy here we go. Another day where I gotta watch home. I’ll take DTX sloppy seconds when it goes SE. sun just came out here and can feel the dews climbing. Ample surface moisture to work with

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2 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Was all of that firing off outflow boundaries? I’ve never seen that in my life where storms over Cleveland built basically a conga line that reached all the way back to Indiana thru outflow. They look like lake effect snow bands

MUCAPE to the west was peaking around 5000 J/kg into the wee hours of the morning.  That is insane for this area.  There was also a modest E-W oriented low level jet aimed right into it.  It intuitively reminded me of a flame building backwards into the fuel.

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