2023 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

[Powerball]

Here's a sanity check for the cliff jumpers from DTX.

TL;DR = At least give these long summer days a chance to play out before declaring a bust...

000
FXUS63 KDTX 281118
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
311 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Shortwave moving through the Straights early this morning, with with
mid level jet forcing supporting widespread showers and
thunderstorms moving through northern Lake Michigan. However, as the
activity propagates southeast, outflow boundary is outrunning the
support and beginning to run into the warm and dry mild levels in
place over southern Lower Michigan, where 700 MB temps of 12 C
reside. If showers/thunderstorms don`t make it in, at the very least,
the outflow/frontal boundary will likely hang around along/north of
I-69 today, which could serve as focus for convection today, as 700
MB level begins to moisten up and temps cool/lower to around 10 C,
making for a marginal cap, especially as surface dew pts ramp up into
the 70s. Right now, seeing dew pts around 80 degrees around Quad
Cities which will be directed toward far southern Lower Michigan this
morning, with several upper level filaments also tracking through.
With showers and now thunderstorms noted over northern Illinois
(hires models not capturing), certainly need chance pops in for this
morning. The issue is, it looks like we get into upper level
negative PV advection/general subsidence for the afternoon, which
suggests convective activity may be limited or non-existent during
this time, allowing for instability to build to moderate to high
levels. SREF weighted local probabilistic guidance suggests Mlcapes
of 2000 J/kg, while the 12z NAM suggests MLcapes aoa 4000 J/kg, but
upper 70 dew pts to near 80 degrees looks too high, low to mid 70s is
more realistic. That moisture content will also make it tough for
maxes to get much past 90 degrees, and that assumes skies will be
mostly sunny-partly cloudy for a good portion of the afternoon.
Either way, southeast Michigan should be primed for severe weather
(mainly wind), with a significant shortwave/jet streak (0-6 km bulk
shear of 50-60 knots) appearing to come out of Minnesota/northern
Wisconsin late in the day. Lead edge of the wind gradient/height
falls suggests activity developing by early evening (5-9 PM) and
quickly growing upscale and diving southeast, as substantial 500 MB
height fall center (30-60 M) is progged to track through Lower
Michigan tonight.

[SolidIcewx]

Just now, Powerball said:

Here's a sanity check for the cliff jumpers from DTX.

TL;DR = At least give these long summer days a chance to play out before declaring a bust...

000
FXUS63 KDTX 281118
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
718 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Shortwave moving through the Straights early this morning, with with
mid level jet forcing supporting widespread showers and
thunderstorms moving through northern Lake Michigan. However, as the
activity propagates southeast, outflow boundary is outrunning the
support and beginning to run into the warm and dry mild levels in
place over southern Lower Michigan, where 700 MB temps of 12 C
reside. If showers/thunderstorms don`t make it in, at the very least,
the outflow/frontal boundary will likely hang around along/north of
I-69 today, which could serve as focus for convection today, as 700
MB level begins to moisten up and temps cool/lower to around 10 C,
making for a marginal cap, especially as surface dew pts ramp up into
the 70s. Right now, seeing dew pts around 80 degrees around Quad
Cities which will be directed toward far southern Lower Michigan this
morning, with several upper level filaments also tracking through.
With showers and now thunderstorms noted over northern Illinois
(hires models not capturing), certainly need chance pops in for this
morning. The issue is, it looks like we get into upper level
negative PV advection/general subsidence for the afternoon, which
suggests convective activity may be limited or non-existent during
this time, allowing for instability to build to moderate to high
levels. SREF weighted local probabilistic guidance suggests Mlcapes
of 2000 J/kg, while the 12z NAM suggests MLcapes aoa 4000 J/kg, but
upper 70 dew pts to near 80 degrees looks too high, low to mid 70s is
more realistic. That moisture content will also make it tough for
maxes to get much past 90 degrees, and that assumes skies will be
mostly sunny-partly cloudy for a good portion of the afternoon.
Either way, southeast Michigan should be primed for severe weather
(mainly wind), with a significant shortwave/jet streak (0-6 km bulk
shear of 50-60 knots) appearing to come out of Minnesota/northern
Wisconsin late in the day. Lead edge of the wind gradient/height
falls suggests activity developing by early evening (5-9 PM) and
quickly growing upscale and diving southeast, as substantial 500 MB
height fall center (30-60 M) is progged to track through Lower
Michigan tonight.

I’m curious to see if those high fees do make it to the I94 corridor. Would make things interesting to say the least. Convection seems to be decaying

[Harry Perry]

Heavy rain here, a little organization with the back side precip, would expect it to decay by late morning and hopefully get some filtered sun by noon.

[madwx]

The cirrus clouds are moving off to the east.  72/67.  We’ll have about 8 hours of full heating 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Sun already shining after the overnight complex. Recovery will not be a problem 

[CheeselandSkies]

Started a new thread to discuss today.
 

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[Stebo]

7 hours ago, outflow said:

It's like mother nature seen this and said hold my beer.....

Side note it still amazes me how summertime convection can make humans and computers look completely clueless when it comes to forecasting even 12 hrs in advance, but in the same sense it wouldn't be as fun if we knew exactly what would happen would it 

Yeah there was nothing when I went to sleep and then all hell broke loose apparently.

[Stebo]

5 hours ago, frostfern said:

Looks like another turd to flush.  Stebo and Powerball can go fuck themselves.  

What? I didn't create the weather

[cyclone77]

On 7/27/2023 at 6:30 PM, cyclone77 said:

Ready 2b derechoed

[Stebo]

10 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Your only purpose here is to be irritating.  Maybe something horrible will happen to and it will humble you from being such a gigantic jackoff.  

Are you okay? These posts are quite concerning, all I said was I didn't believe you got missed like you said and it put you on complete tilt.

[frostfern]

17 hours ago, Powerball said:

Here's a sanity check for the cliff jumpers from DTX.

TL;DR = At least give these long summer days a chance to play out before declaring a bust...

000
FXUS63 KDTX 281118
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
311 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Shortwave moving through the Straights early this morning, with with
mid level jet forcing supporting widespread showers and
thunderstorms moving through northern Lake Michigan. However, as the
activity propagates southeast, outflow boundary is outrunning the
support and beginning to run into the warm and dry mild levels in
place over southern Lower Michigan, where 700 MB temps of 12 C
reside. If showers/thunderstorms don`t make it in, at the very least,
the outflow/frontal boundary will likely hang around along/north of
I-69 today, which could serve as focus for convection today, as 700
MB level begins to moisten up and temps cool/lower to around 10 C,
making for a marginal cap, especially as surface dew pts ramp up into
the 70s. Right now, seeing dew pts around 80 degrees around Quad
Cities which will be directed toward far southern Lower Michigan this
morning, with several upper level filaments also tracking through.
With showers and now thunderstorms noted over northern Illinois
(hires models not capturing), certainly need chance pops in for this
morning. The issue is, it looks like we get into upper level
negative PV advection/general subsidence for the afternoon, which
suggests convective activity may be limited or non-existent during
this time, allowing for instability to build to moderate to high
levels. SREF weighted local probabilistic guidance suggests Mlcapes
of 2000 J/kg, while the 12z NAM suggests MLcapes aoa 4000 J/kg, but
upper 70 dew pts to near 80 degrees looks too high, low to mid 70s is
more realistic. That moisture content will also make it tough for
maxes to get much past 90 degrees, and that assumes skies will be
mostly sunny-partly cloudy for a good portion of the afternoon.
Either way, southeast Michigan should be primed for severe weather
(mainly wind), with a significant shortwave/jet streak (0-6 km bulk
shear of 50-60 knots) appearing to come out of Minnesota/northern
Wisconsin late in the day. Lead edge of the wind gradient/height
falls suggests activity developing by early evening (5-9 PM) and
quickly growing upscale and diving southeast, as substantial 500 MB
height fall center (30-60 M) is progged to track through Lower
Michigan tonight.

Derp.  Didn’t happen.  80 dews broke the cap and cut off the supply way south of the dynamics.

[Powerball]

6 hours ago, frostfern said:

I’m not well. Obvioisly powerball is amused.  Hope the fuckhead gets cancer.

 

6 hours ago, frostfern said:

He laughed when I said I have health problems. He deserves cancer.

I'll take the bait...

I'm not laughing at your health problems (and I certainly wish you get the help you deserve). I'm laughing at 2 things:

1. Your clapbacks at Stebo, because I just plain don't like him (the reason why has nothing to do with you).

2. The fact that your extremely unrealistic expectations for weather in Grand Rapids in spite of its climo, which has been explained to you ad-nauseam, has you becoming so unhinged that you're devolving into nonsensical diatribes over it with strangers on an internet forum.

And I already suspected you have health problems, FYI. Just not the physical kind with the way you've been carrying on. I actually think it's sad (not funny), which is why I've been giving you Weenie reactions. 

I hope this helps and please be blessed! 

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

 

I'll take the bait...

I'm not laughing at your health problems (and I certainly wish you get the help you deserve). I'm laughing at 2 things:

1. Your clapbacks at Stebo, because I just plain don't like him (the reason why has nothing to do with you).

2. The fact that your extremely unrealistic expectations for weather in Grand Rapids in spite of its climo, which has been explained to you ad-nauseam, has you becoming so unhinged that you're devolving into nonsensical diatribes over it with strangers on an internet forum.

And I already suspected you have health problems, FYI. Just not the physical kind with the way you've been carrying on. I actually think it's sad (not funny), which is why I've been giving you Weenie reactions. 

I hope this helps and please be blessed! 

You have been putting the tag on every post I make obsessively since May.  Nobody else has been doing this.  Not every single post, regardless of actual relevence.    And you do not single other people out this way.  It's obsessive and spiteful you've been doing it for two months now.

I really don't give a damn what you think my expectations are.  I'm just disappointed after the entire month of May and majority of June being stuck under constant blocking and choking smoke.  That wasn't normal "climo" at all.  Missing a lot of really good action by very small margins a lot of the time this past month isn't really a "climo" problem either, just bad luck.  You have never "explained" anything to me I don't already know.  I've lived hear almost 40 years.

I became "unhinged" because of other things in my life that have nothing to do with the weather or you.  Weather is an escape for me.  You being an unholy nuisance  just tipped me over the edge.  If you actually want to "help" me simply stop talking to me and tagging my posts.  I block you and you block me and we're done with it.  If you continue to harass me I'll bring it up with moderators and if they have no solution I'm just going to leave.  You can then have your delightful power trip of trolling a long time member off the board and jerk yourself off all day.

I'm offering an apology to Stebo as he didn't deserve my outburst.  We have our differences but we normally get along okay.  I'm having a hard time wanting to apologize to you though.  Sorry, I just don't like you.  I'm going back and cleaning up the old posts I made on 2 hours of sleep if the mods haven't already.  

[Stebo]

9 hours ago, Powerball said:

 

I'll take the bait...

I'm not laughing at your health problems (and I certainly wish you get the help you deserve). I'm laughing at 2 things:

1. Your clapbacks at Stebo, because I just plain don't like him (the reason why has nothing to do with you).

2. The fact that your extremely unrealistic expectations for weather in Grand Rapids in spite of its climo, which has been explained to you ad-nauseam, has you becoming so unhinged that you're devolving into nonsensical diatribes over it with strangers on an internet forum.

And I already suspected you have health problems, FYI. Just not the physical kind with the way you've been carrying on. I actually think it's sad (not funny), which is why I've been giving you Weenie reactions. 

I hope this helps and please be blessed! 

Don't worry the feeling is mutual

[Stebo]

7 hours ago, frostfern said:

You have been putting the tag on every post I make obsessively since May.  Nobody else has been doing this.  Not every single post, regardless of actual relevence.    And you do not single other people out this way.  It's obsessive and spiteful you've been doing it for two months now.

I really don't give a damn what you think my expectations are.  I'm just disappointed after the entire month of May and majority of June being stuck under constant blocking and choking smoke.  That wasn't normal "climo" at all.  Missing a lot of really good action by very small margins a lot of the time this past month isn't really a "climo" problem either, just bad luck.  You have never "explained" anything to me I don't already know.  I've lived hear almost 40 years.

I became "unhinged" because of other things in my life that have nothing to do with the weather or you.  Weather is an escape for me.  You being an unholy nuisance  just tipped me over the edge.  If you actually want to "help" me simply stop talking to me and tagging my posts.  I block you and you block me and we're done with it.  If you continue to harass me I'll bring it up with moderators and if they have no solution I'm just going to leave.  You can then have your delightful power trip of trolling a long time member off the board and jerk yourself off all day.

I'm offering an apology to Stebo as he didn't deserve my outburst.  We have our differences but we normally get along okay.  I'm having a hard time wanting to apologize to you though.  Sorry, I just don't like you.  I'm going back and cleaning up the old posts I made on 2 hours of sleep if the mods haven't already.  

You don't need to apologize to me, I know your outburst isn't normal and that you have other stuff going on.

[Malacka11]

Brought to you by the producers of Dance Moms: Real Posters of AMWX

[cyclone77]

New Euro shows a pretty decent severe threat Sunday/Sunday night from WI/IL points east.  Next thing to watch for sure.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

New Euro shows a pretty decent severe threat Sunday/Sunday night from WI/IL points east.  Next thing to watch for sure.

SPC mentions it, too (Saturday Day5 highlight for NE/w IA is pretty gutsy in August IMO). 06Z GFS has any potential for Sunday way east of us.

[cyclone77]

8 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

SPC mentions it, too (Saturday Day5 highlight for NE/w IA is pretty gutsy in August IMO). 06Z GFS has any potential for Sunday way east of us.

12z Euro still looking pretty nice.  Nice little vort max rolling in around peak heating.  Hope the Euro is on the right track. 

[CheeselandSkies]

14 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

12z Euro still looking pretty nice.  Nice little vort max rolling in around peak heating.  Hope the Euro is on the right track. 

The GFS is just way, way more progressive, with the 18Z having the low over southwest Lower Michigan at 00Z Monday. However it does seem to have a bias for this sort of thing, so we shall see.

12Z Euro OTOH is almost classic SW flow, >60kt strongly diffluent jet, left exit region over S WI/N IL. Looks like it belongs in May.

[RCNYILWX]

The look on the 12z Euro for Sunday was likely the most impressive this summer at that range for a favorable large scale pattern for severe weather. Will be interesting to see if the Euro holds with its much slower s/w and cold frontal approach tonight.

[RCNYILWX]

The look on the 12z Euro for Sunday was likely the most impressive this summer at that range for a favorable large scale pattern for severe weather. Will be interesting to see if the Euro holds with its much slower s/w and cold frontal approach tonight.

The 12z Euro looks classic synoptically - timing a hair slower which is something to watch given that parent system is an anomalous closed h5 low which commonly tend to slow down.

Forecast surface and 500 mb pattern looks more like a spring setup but the upper jet flow is marginal at only 40-50 kt, which can favor HP mode or earlier upscale growth to an MCS or both.

But anyway, backed winds I-39 and east with a 40-50 kt southwesterly 500 mb jet core punching in and low 70s dew points into southern WI is prime. So in this sort of scenario you might see tornadic HP supercells transitioning to a tornadic QLCS with higher end potential tornado intensity vs. last Friday night given much stronger forecast low level and deep layer shear.

That's if you have initial supercell mode and do have upscale growth of course and certainly couldn't rule out very rapid transition to a QLCS near or west of the MS River.

I'll be in NY during this so will be a spectator, though sometime in the Monday evening-Tuesday timeframe could have higher end severe potential on the east coast too. Will be interesting to watch this unfold.

[CheeselandSkies]

39 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 12z Euro looks classic synoptically - timing a hair slower which is something to watch given that parent system is an anomalous closed h5 low which commonly tend to slow down.

Forecast surface and 500 mb pattern looks more like a spring setup but the upper jet flow is marginal at only 40-50 kt, which can favor HP mode or earlier upscale growth to an MCS or both.

But anyway, backed winds I-39 and east with a 40-50 kt southwesterly 500 mb jet core punching in and low 70s dew points into southern WI is prime. So in this sort of scenario you might see tornadic HP supercells transitioning to a tornadic QLCS with higher end potential tornado intensity vs. last Friday night given much stronger forecast low level and deep layer shear.

That's if you have initial supercell mode and do have upscale growth of course and certainly couldn't rule out very rapid transition to a QLCS near or west of the MS River.

I'll be in NY during this so will be a spectator, though sometime in the Monday evening-Tuesday timeframe could have higher end severe potential on the east coast too. Will be interesting to watch this unfold.



 

Wonder when the GFS will cave. Today's 12Z still has the action in Lower MI/NW OH at 00Z Monday, although it does seem a tad bit further west with the low than previous runs.

[hlcater]

Hodographs are rather small and lacking changes in speed/direction above 2km or so. But of course these are were pulled off globals and subject to change once higher res guidance gets in range.

[SolidIcewx]

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Wonder when the GFS will cave. Today's 12Z still has the action in Lower MI/NW OH at 00Z Monday, although it does seem a tad bit further west with the low than previous runs.

Of course I’ll have left for Columbus by then lol might leave later on Sunday to make my drive more interesting 

[frostfern]

Hope a nice solid squall line comes of this.  Like halfway between GFS and ECMWF would be nice.  It would be nice to know if the pattern that follows will be good too.

[madwx]

Reeling it in 

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, madwx said:

Reeling it in 

Latest NAM has the low over La Crosse at 12Z Sunday, still might be mistimed for us. If it was there at 00Z Monday...

Edit: On that run, eastern Iowa and possibly parts of western IL look interesting on Saturday evening. SPC highlight for that day has been much further west.

[cyclone77]

Hopefully the new day4 introduces a risk area, and it looks like this.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Hopefully the new day4 introduces a risk area, and it looks like this.

 

Uncanny.