SolidIcewx Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 7 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: That *is* a pretty powerhouse system being depicted on the NAM. Not too often you see tornado-favorable soundings valid for 15Z (10 AM) in this neck of the woods. That’s what I’m saying pretty intrigued to say the least. DTX had a really nice discussion last night. Waiting on a more detailed one from KIWX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 3 hours ago, frostfern said: I-94 south year. Possible another round Thursday night into Friday. Let’s see where that front sets up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Looking spicy tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 2 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: Possible another round Thursday night into Friday. Let’s see where that front sets up Its just 2 chances that will probably be mostly south of me, then back to the forever trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, frostfern said: Its just 2 chances that will probably be mostly south of me, then back to the forever trough. The way it’s looking so far anything that does happen you should be within easy driving distance hopefully 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 9 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: The way it’s looking so far anything that does happen you should be within easy driving distance hopefully The latest models look farther north. Still so hard to predict where something will develop upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 friday evening looking solid 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: friday evening looking solid Was about to post on this but then got super busy at work (live severe wx cut-ins among other things). Interesting tension among first whiff CAM solutions...3K NAM has a rather volatile environment over S WI/N IL at 00Z Friday Saturday, but no convection. FV3 meanwhile has a huge derecho blowing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Just now, CheeselandSkies said: Was about to post on this but then got super busy at work (live severe wx cut-ins among other things). Interesting tension among first whiff CAM solutions...3K NAM has a very volatile environment over S WI/N IL at 00Z Friday, but no convection. FV3 meanwhile has a huge derecho blowing through. It’s like pulling power ball numbers when it comes to what your gonna get this time of year. Been a fun past couple weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 18Z NAM at FH054 remains quite interesting for Friday evening at FH054 with very strong low-level curvature in the forecast hodographs, a modest/breakable cap, and >5,000 j/kg MLCAPE in parts of S WI/N IL. The surface chart appears to depict the reason for these enhanced hodographs as a sort of secondary surface low near the MS river, out ahead of the main one which it depicts over the IA/NE border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Tomorrow looks more interesting than Friday for me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Kind of surprised SPC couldn't at least muster a 2% prob zone on the Day 2, given >100j/kg 3CAPE and 250-350 m2/s2 inflow layer SRH on NAM forecast soundings for 00Z Saturday, unless they're totally disbelieving the model; or don't believe storms will form in that environment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 ENH just went up for MN/WI on 1630z OTLK... 30 percent hatched hail and wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Kind of surprised SPC couldn't at least muster a 2% prob zone on the Day 2, given >100j/kg 3CAPE and 250-350 m2/s2 inflow layer SRH on NAM forecast soundings for 00Z Saturday, unless they're totally disbelieving the model; or don't believe storms will form in that environment. In addition to that, the 12Z HRRR fires storms in southern WI Friday afternoon/evening, which last night's 00Z (first run to be in range) wasn't doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 i'll take what the hrdps is selling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: Kind of surprised SPC couldn't at least muster a 2% prob zone on the Day 2, given >100j/kg 3CAPE and 250-350 m2/s2 inflow layer SRH on NAM forecast soundings for 00Z Saturday, unless they're totally disbelieving the model; or don't believe storms will form in that environment. They introduced a 2% in the 1730Z update. MS River at WI/IL line to western third of Lake Erie. Depending on MCV placement/timing, I could see tomorrow becoming one of those sneaky summer sig events for somewhere in our region. Given the forecast heat, LCL could become an issue, but dewpoints should be in the 70s. This could be a case where a little cloud cover might actually help if you're looking for a chase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 euro also p hot, lots to like 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 I know this is northern Ontario but damn that’s one hell of a storm probably supercell up there way in the boondocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 heavy squall line in Wisconsin, a few brief tornado warnings in the middle of the squall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 Ready 2b derechoed 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 27, 2023 Share Posted July 27, 2023 18 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Ready 2b derechoed May 8th 2009 style? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said: May 8th 2009 style? Tomorrow looks legit, I could see MDT level output especially if the HRRR is right. If we don't get any junk convection over IL tonight, our atmosphere is going to be jet fuel tomorrow, even with it the 00z HRRR is gas. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 17 minutes ago, Stebo said: Tomorrow looks legit, I could see MDT level output especially if the HRRR is right. If we don't get any junk convection over IL tonight, our atmosphere is going to be jet fuel tomorrow, even with it the 00z HRRR is gas. It’s definitely pure jet fuel that’s for sure. I’ll be back home tomorrow so hope for a good storm at least even tho the area has taken a beating as of late. 00Z is Hawt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 47 minutes ago, Stebo said: Tomorrow looks legit, I could see MDT level output especially if the HRRR is right. If we don't get any junk convection over IL tonight, our atmosphere is going to be jet fuel tomorrow, even with it the 00z HRRR is gas. Wow, just checked 00z and yeah, would be a higher end event for most of the sub. Southeast Wisconsin just absolutely mutilated. Check out some of the UD Helicity Swaths maxing out the scale over Grafton and West Bend. Impressive. HRRR probably a pretty realistic outcome with the instability in place and the 50kt LLJ punching from the west around dark. Going to be a busy night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 37 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: It’s definitely pure jet fuel that’s for sure. I’ll be back home tomorrow so hope for a good storm at least even tho the area has taken a beating as of late. 00Z is Hawt It’s our time to shine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Just now, Harry Perry said: Wow, just checked 00z and yeah, would be a higher end event for most of the sub. Southeast Wisconsin just absolutely mutilated. Check out some of the UD Helicity Swaths maxing out the scale over Grafton and West Bend. Impressive. HRRR probably a pretty realistic outcome with the instability in place and the 50kt LLJ punching from the west around dark. Going to be a busy night. The NAMs are pretty good as well, NAM12 has nearly 5000 J/kg SBCAPE before storms form around 00z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Nothing like a 4/26/91 analog over your house in Wisconsin...in late July. Convective mode likely won't allow for something like that, but wow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 28 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Wow, just checked 00z and yeah, would be a higher end event for most of the sub. Southeast Wisconsin just absolutely mutilated. Check out some of the UD Helicity Swaths maxing out the scale over Grafton and West Bend. Impressive. HRRR probably a pretty realistic outcome with the instability in place and the 50kt LLJ punching from the west around dark. Going to be a busy night. Batten down the palms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 I keep forgetting the 00z GFS just doesn't exist at 10:30PM eastern daylight. Oh well, the 3km NAM and HRRR have quite a bit of development in Wisconsin tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Not sure how well Nadocast does for wind, but definitely has that Derecho look for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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